Hail and Damaging Winds in Oklahoma, April 6, 2003

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA
310 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2003

40-50 KT LOW LEVEL JET HAS INDUCED SCATTERED STRONG STORMS NORTH OF
THE WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT...BUT THUS FAR STORMS HAVE STRUGGLED TO
MAINTAIN STRENGTH AS THEY TRACK NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN OK.  EXPECT
TO SEE LOW LEVEL JET AXIS TRANSLATE A LITTLE TO THE EAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...SO POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE.

SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE 4 CORNERS REGION THIS MORNING WILL TRACK
ACROSS KS DURING THE DAY.  EXPECT TO SEE SURFACE LOW REDEVELOP IN
THE VICINTY OF SOUTHWESTWESTERN OK OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THEN
TRACK ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE DAY AS SHORTWAVE SLIPS BY TO THE
NORTHWEST.  SHOULD SEE SURFACE LOW MOVE TO NORTHEAST OK BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITH FAIRLY WELL DEFINED DRYLINE EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOW.  WILL SEE THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL STORMS
THROUGH THE DAY AS SURFACE LOW/DRYLINE MOVE TO THE EAST...AND WARM
FRONT NOW SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER MOVES NORTH PLACING THE AREA IN
WARM SECTOR.  WILL KEEP POPS RATHER HIGH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH
POSIBILITY OF SEVERE MENTIONED IN ALL ZONES.  WILL KEEP SOME LOW
POPS IN THE EAST FOR EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN SYSTEM EXPECTED TO
QUICKLY EXIT TO THE NORTHEAST BY LATER THIS EVENING.

NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST BEYOND TONIGHT WITH DRY/COOL WEATHER
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...THEN TEMPS MODERATING OVER THE
LAST HALF OF THE WEEK.

TUL   65   42   60   34  / 60   10   10   10
FSM   71   46   66   39  / 70   30   10   10
MLC   73   46   65   37  / 60   10   10   10
BVO   57   39   57   32  / 60   10   10   10
FYV   64   41   61   32  / 70   30   10   10
BYV   64   40   62   31  / 70   30   10   10
MIO   60   40   59   31  / 70   30   10   10
F10   71   43   61   35  / 60   10   10   10
HHW   74   49   67   40  / 60   10   10   10

FORECAST ID= 4

.TSA...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-071100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
600 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2003

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK

...CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...
SCATTERED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS MORNING. A FEW OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY
THREAT.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA. A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH INTO
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING
WARM AND MOIST AIR TO INFILTRATE THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF A DRYLINE
AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD
BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT.
A FEW SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE THREAT OF TORNADOES.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WARNING PROBABILITIES CAN BE FOUND IN
THE OUTLOOK SECTION AT: WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA. GIVEN PROBABILITIES
REPRESENT THE POTENTIAL FOR A WARNING TO BE ISSUED AT YOUR LOCATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MON THROUGH SAT
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER / EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT...
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA

OKZ056-061045-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
518 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2003

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IN EFFECT FOR NOWATA COUNTY UNTIL 545 AM
   CDT...

AT 518 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES
WEST OF ELLIOT...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH. THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING UP TO DIME SIZE HAIL.