Damaging Wind in Alabama, April 6, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM, AL
250 PM CDT SUN APR 6 2003

WARM FRONT HAS MOVED NORTHWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SURFACE BASED LIS IN THE -4 TO -8 RANGE IN
THE WARM SECTOR.  ON-GOING SEVERE WEATHER OVER CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
WILL TRACK INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS.  THIS COMPLEX WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS
MORE STABLE AIR OVER EASTERN COUNTIES.  ANOTHER COMPLEX DEVELOPING
OVER NORTHERN LOUISIANA COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OVER SVR WX LATER
TONIGHT.  ON MONDAY...DEEPER MOISTURE AND SHEAR WILL SHIFT EAST AND
SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA.  WITH NUMEROUS BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE AREA AND
PLENTY OF CAPE...SCATTERED TSTMS LIKELY TO DEVELOP...SOME SEVERE...
PRIMARILY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20...AS THIS AIRMASS NOT LIKELY AS
WORKED OVER AS AIRMASS NORTH OF I-20.

MODELS INDICATING AN UPPER IMPULSE WILL DEVELOP ON FRONT ALONG TEXAS
COAST AND SPREAD SHOWERS AND TSTMS BACK INTO ALABAMA MONDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE LOW SHOULD MOVE INTO SW GEORGIA BY 18Z TUESDAY AND BRING AN
END TO THE TSTMS.  GFS MODEL HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH CUT-OFF
LOW FORMING OVER CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES ON WEDNESDAY.  THIS WILL
BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MAINLY EASTERN ALABAMA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.  UPPER TROF WILL FINALLY SHIFT EAST OF AREA BY FRIDAY
WITH CLEARING SKIES AND WARMER TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND.

BHM 64 79 58 65/  100 30 70 40
MGM 66 81 60 72/  40  50 70 60

.BHM...NONE.

ROSE/58

ALZ011>015-017>050-062100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
102 PM CDT SUN APR 06 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE (THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT)...

FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS WEST OF INTERSTATE 65.  A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS EXIST FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

A WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS...ALONG WITH A WARM FRONT...WILL
PROVIDE THE INSTABILITY NEEDED FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BECOME SEVERE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE GREATEST
THREAT OF ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER WILL BEGIN AROUND 4 PM OVER
WESTERN ALABAMA AND SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME.  THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...

THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.  THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY
UNSTABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT UNTIL A COLD FRONT EXITS THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY TUESDAY.  SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL
WILL MOST LIKELY BECOME NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON.

ALZ030-062030-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
228 PM CDT SUN APR 6 2003

.A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM JUST WEST OF DECATUR...MISSISSIPPI...IS
MOVING EAST AT ABOUT 40 MILES PER HOUR.  THIS THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE
INTO WESTERN SUMTER COUNTY BETWEEN 3:15 AND 3:30 PM.

THIS THUNDERSTORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING STRONG DAMAGING
WINDS...AND LARGE HAIL.

PLEASE TAKE THE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS NOW BEFORE THE STORM IS ON
TOP OF YOU.

LAT...LON 3243 8839 3297 8831 3289 8820 3279 8811
          3269 8811 3269 8805 3263 8809 3259 8806
          3260 8798 3245 8801 3242 8805 3235 8805

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
516 PM CDT SUN APR 06 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0340 PM    CUBA                      AL   0.75 IN HAIL
04/06/03   SUMTER                         PENNY SIZE HAIL WAS
                                          REPORTED JUST NORTH OF
                                          CUBA. EMA

0415 PM    LIVINGSTON                AL   0.88 IN HAIL
04/06/03   SUMTER                         NICKEL SIZE HAIL WAS
                                          OBSERVED IN LIVINGSTON.
                                          EMA

0425 PM    LIVINGSTON                AL   1.75 IN HAIL
04/06/03   SUMTER                         GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL FELL
                                          ACROSS LIVINGSTON.
                                          SHERIFF

0426 PM    LIVINGSTON                AL   HEAVY RAIN
04/06/03   SUMTER                         MINOR URBAN FLOODING
                                          REPORTED IN LIVINGSTON.
                                          EMA