Winter Storm in Nebraska, April 6 to 7, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
357 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2003

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUE TO BE WINTER STORM.

U/A ANALYSIS AND SAT IMAGERY SHOWING UPPER SYSTEM JUST PULLING OUT
OF 4 CORNERS AREA ATTM. LOCAL PROFILERS SHOWING STRONG VEERING
ACROSS E CO TO SW NW WITH IR PICTURE SHOWING CLOUD SHIELD EXPANDING
AND COOLING..ALSO STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTO BAND BEGINNING TO SET UP
ACROSS SOUTHERN PANHANDLE...SW NEB INTO CENTRAL KS. RADAR RETURNS
ARE INCREASING IN THIS STRONG REGION OF LIFT WITH BFF REPORTING
HEAVY SNOW. MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE WITH LOCAL RAOBS SHOWING
SATURATION UP TO 700MB. LOW PRESSURE CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE ACROSS
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...WITH MAIN LOW NEAR NM/TX PANHANDLE.

MODELS FAIRLY CONSISTENT SHOWING H5 LOW PULLING OUT OF ROCKIES THIS
MORNING AND CLOSED OFF OVER WESTERN NE BY 18Z...THEN BECOMING NEG
TILTED AS STRONGER ENERGY AND JET MAX ROTATES AROUND BASE INTO
EASTERN PLAINS. RETURNS ON RADAR SHOULD FILL IN ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SW NE THIS A.M. IN STRONG ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE REGIME AHEAD THIS
ENERGY IN BASE OF TROF...ADDITIONAL LIFT LOOKS TO COME FROM MID
LEVEL FRONTO BAND. HEAVIEST SNOW SHOULD REFOCUS ACROSS E/NE CWA IN
THE AFTERNOON ASSOC WITH DEFORMATION ZONE NE OF CLOSED H7 LOW IN SC
NEBRASKA. WILL LEAVE WARNING IN PLACE WITH HEAVIEST SNOW EXPECTED
ACROSS SW NE INTO EC ZONES WITH SOME CONCERN NW PORTION OF CWA WILL
BE ON EDGE AND WILL DECIDE PROBABLY LAST MINUTE TO REMOVE ANY CNTYS.

UPPER LOW WILL ROTATE OVER STATE TONIGHT WITH MAIN DEFORMATION ZONE
SHIFTING NE OF CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW CHANCES WILL REMAIN FOR
MONDAY AS BACK EDGE OF TROF ROTATES N TO S ACROSS CWA WHILE BEING
PUSHED EAST BY RIDGE BUILDING IN THE WEST. TWEAKED TEMPS DOWN TUE
AND WED WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES AFTER THAT.

.LBF...WINTER STORM WARNING EASTERN PANHANDLE...SOUTHWEST AND WEST
CENTRAL NEBRASKA TODAY...NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA TODAY AND THIS
EVENING.

DP

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-052145-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1205 PM CST SAT APR 5 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

AN EARLY SPRING STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA
BY LATE AFTERNOON.  SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN NEBRASKA. THE STORM WILL STRENGTHEN CONSIDERABLY OVERNIGHT
AS THE MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVES OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS.
THIS WILL PUT MOST OF THE OUTLOOK AREA IN A FAVORABLE POSITION FOR
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.  A WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT
FOR THE ENTIRE AREA SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SNOW MAY BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.  SNOW WILL
TAPER OFF OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA SUNDAY EVENING
AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PULLS EAST...BUT WILL STILL BRING SOME LIGHT
SNOW OR FLURIES TO NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 5 TO 7 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
OF UP TO A FOOT ACROSS THE SANDHILLS WILL BE POSSIBLE.  THE HEAVIEST
SNOWS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SANDHILLS OF NEBRASKA NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.