Tornadoes and Hail in North Carolina, May 31, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1025 AM EDT SAT MAY 31 2003

CURRENT RAINFALL SEEMS TO BE DUE TO MID LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS SHOULD NOT RISE TOO MUCH THIS AFTERNOON. CLEARING
LINE IN FOOTHILLS AT 10 AM MOVING WITH SPEED OF SHOWERS (40KT) AND
SOME SUNSHINE OVER OUR AREA WILL WARM THINGS UP. SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT BASED ON ACTIVITY NOT YET ON THE RADAR BUT MODELS ARE
BRINGING EVERYTHING TOGETHER FOR AN EVENT.

DECENT DIVERGENCE AT 250MB KEYING ON THE NORTH HALF OF OUR AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. 11-13 PER SECOND VORT CENTER AT 500 MB TO THROW PVA OVER
THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE NICE SPEED CONVERGENCE/CONFLUENCE LINE TO
CROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH EMPHASIS ON THE NORTH AND ALSO IN
THE SOUTHEAST LATE AFTERNOON. OUR SOUTHWEST LEAST FAVORED BUT SEVERE
THREAT NOT ZERO THERE. WET BULB ZERO POTENTIALLY TO DESCEND AS LOW
AT 9700 FEET.

ADDED WRINKLE OF POSSIBLE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE
VIRGINIA BORDER AS DEPICTED ON MESO ETA MODEL. NO CLOSED CIRCULATION
BUT THE SYSTEM DOES KINK THE WIND FIELD AND ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL
HELICITY IN THE VERTICAL WIND FIELD.

THUS ALMOST ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE TODAY. WILL PLACE SLIGHT EMPHASIS
ON THE NORTH IN AN UPDATED WEATHER OUTLOOK.

TEMPERATURES TRICKY TODAY. FELL SHORT OF FULL SUN HIGHS WITH JUST
CIRRUS FRIDAY. POTENTIAL FOR 86 ACROSS THE NORTH BUT SHOULD COME UP
SHORT ALL AREAS. CLEAR SKIES ALREADY IN PARTS OF OUR WEST AND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD JUMP WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SUNSHINE. A CRAP
SHOOT BUT NEAR 80 PERHAPS ALL WE CAN GET BEFORE CLOUDS AND STORMS
RETURN.

WITH SEVERE THREAT FOR TODAY...VERY LITTLE BEYOND TODAY HAS BEEN
EXAMINED. WILL TAKE A QUICK LOOK BUT LEAVE CLOSE EXAMINATION TO THIS
AFTERNOON WHEN OUR STAFFING WILL INCREASE.

.RAH...NONE.

RLH

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-311045-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
500 AM EDT SAT MAY 31 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
TODAY INTO EARLY EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE TRIAD AREA BY MID MORNING AND SPREAD EAST
ACROSS THE AREA. THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT
PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA.  THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL
BE DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS...ALONG
AND EAST OF A LINE FROM ROANOKE RAPIDS...NASHVILLE...CLAYTON...
LILLINGTON...TO FAYETTEVILLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR LATE DAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER NETWORK ACTIVATION WILL MOST LIKELY BE NEEDED LATER THIS
MORNING...THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.

RA

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-010118-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1219 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2003

...A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS OVER CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.SYNOPTIC PATTERN...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MARYLAND-
DELAWARE REGION BY EARLY TONIGHT WILL PUSH A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT
FROM THE WEST INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
A LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED DEVELOP
AND MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  WINDS AND INSTABILITY WILL BE INCREASING
OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE MAIN THREAT COMING FROM DAMAGING
DOWNBURST WINDS AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES. LARGE HAIL IS ALSO A
POSSIBILITY WITH THESE STORMS.

THE THREAT APPEARS GREATEST IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT AFTER 2 PM AND
IS FORECAST TO SPREAD TO THE EAST TOWARD SUNSET. THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AFTER 5 PM AND
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE WADESBORO ALBEMARLE AREA
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS LOWER THAN THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS
BUT IS NOT ZERO.

SKYWARN SPOTTERS...
SKYWARN NETWORK ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IN THE NORTHWEST
PIEDMONT AFTER 3 PM AND ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FROM
LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

EMERGENCY OFFICIALS AND RESIDENTS OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD
TAKE NOTE OF THIS HEIGHTENED RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY AND
SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST WEATHER CONDITIONS AND FORECASTS.
MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS ONLY FORECAST FOR NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT ONCE EVERY TWO YEARS. STAY CONNECTED TO THE LOCAL MEDIA OR
MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO THROUGHOUT TODAY AND THIS EVENING UNTIL
THE THREAT PASSES. BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTIONS IF
WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE ISSUED OR IF SEVERE WEATHER IS SPOTTED IN
YOUR AREA.

RLH