Hail and Damaging Wind in Texas, May 31, 2003

SOUTH PLAINS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
237 PM CDT SAT 31 MAY 2003

DAY ONE...
WEAK WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES CONTINUE TO FLATTEN THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS. COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING WAS LOCATED FROM SOUTH OF KABI TO NEAR KMAF AND INTO
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AT 18Z. COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO REMAIN
QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN AND ALONG THE
MOUNTAINS OF NEW MEXICO TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE
NORTHERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS AND EASTERN PANHANDLES LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. FRONT EXPECTED TO AID IN POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. UPSLOPE FLOW NORTH OF THE
FRONT IS ALREADY HELPING TO INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO WITH CU FIELD ALSO BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO. SOME OF THESE
STORMS MAY MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO FORECAST AREA DURING THE TONIGHT.
WILL THUS CONTINUE CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS. WITH FRONT
DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA WILL ALSO CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
SUNDAY. ALSO WITH FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST WILL TREND TOWARD
THE HIGHER NUMBERS FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...HOWEVER NOT AS HIGH AS
ETA GUIDANCE.
08

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
SFC BOUNDARY TO WAFFLE NORTH-SOUTH ACROSS THE FA DURING MOST OF THE
PERIOD OCCASIONALLY BEING ENHANCED BY MCS ACTIVITY ACRS WRN HIGH
PLAINS. MEANWHILE NORTHWEST FLOW TO INCREASE WITH TIME. ALSO EXPECT
TO SEE FAVORABLE MID LEVEL TEMPS/LAPSE RATES. COMBINATION SHOULD
ENHANCE RAIN CHCS THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. PARTICULARS DIFFICULT TO
FCST ATTM AS FORCING WILL BE ON THE MESOSCALE. WILL GENERALLY RUN
WITH CHC POPS DURING NIGHTTIME HOURS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
SLIGHT CHC OR NO MENTION DURING THE DAY. POPS THURSDAY QUESTIONABLE
WITH SLIGHT SUBTLE TRANSITION TO THE PATTERN. FRIDAY LOOKING MORE
LIKE WEAK FLOW ALOFT WITH SMALL CHC OF AFTN N MEXICO CONVECTION
MAKING IT INTO WRN ZONES.

SHORTER TERM...MODELS CUTTING BACK MODESTLY ON RAIN POTENTIAL FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT. STILL APPEARS CONVECTION MAY FIRE OVER NERN N
MEXICO/TEXAS PANHANDLE THEN SLIDE ESEWD. EVEN THIS CLOSE TO THE EVENT
SCENARIO PRETTY UNCERTAIN...ALTHOUGH IT DOES STILL LOOK LIKE NERN
ZONES HAVE BEST SHOT. WILL TRIM POPS SLIGHTLY AS A RESULT.

NOT TOO MANY OTHER CHANGES TO EXTENDED GRIDS. TEMPS LOOK TO BE
SEASONAL WITH MODERATE HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES AND VARIABLE CLOUD COVER
DUE TO CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AND POSSIBLE LATE NIGHT STRATUS.

FCSTID = 07

FRIONA      59 88 60 85 / 20 20 20 10
TULIA       60 88 61 85 / 20 20 40 10
LUBBOCK     62 90 62 87 / 30 20 20 10
BROWNFIELD  63 91 63 87 / 20 20 20 10
CHILDRESS   63 85 64 86 / 20 20 40 10
ASPERMONT   67 91 64 88 / 30 20 20 10

.LBB...NONE.

TXZ021>044-010000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1138 AM CDT SAT MAY 31 2003

THIS IS A HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...

CONVECTIVE

THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT LOCATED ACROSS THE
PERMIAN BASIN INTO THE MOUNTAINS MAY MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE
SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND LOW ROLLING PLAINS EARLY THIS EVENING. IF
THE THUNDERSTORMS CAN PERSIST THEY MAY APPROACH SEVERE LEVELS WITH
WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH AND DIME SIZE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE AND
ROLLING PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO AND NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO LATE
SUNDAY. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT AS IT
DRIFTS SOUTHEAST INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.