High Wind in North Carolina, May 12, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
320 AM EDT MON MAY 12 2003

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH 48 HOURS IS STRENGTH OF WIND. COLD
ADVECTION ONGOING...AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR MOST OF TODAY...AND
INTO TONIGHT. 85H WIND SPEEDS FROM BOTH ETA AND GFS REMAIN AT OR
ABOVE 30 KT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THROW SOME MIXING IN...AND
THE COLD ADVECTION...AND WE SHOULD EASILY SEE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
MET ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT ADVISORIES AND
WARNINGS FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS...WITH DAY SHIFT WANTING
TO SERIOUSLY CONSIDER KEEPING SOME KIND OF ADVISORY UP FOR THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS ONCE THE CURRENT HIGH WIND WARNING THERE EXPIRES
AT MIDDAY. WIND ADVISORY FOR AREA LAKES OUTSIDE OF NC MOUNTAINS.

WILL ALSO NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR SURFACE RH TODAY FOR POTENTIAL RED
FLAG. EVEN LOWERING MODEL DEWPOINTS A COUPLE OF DEGREES LEAVES
FORECAST RH ABOVE CRITICAL 25% LEVEL BY MID AFTERNOON HOWEVER...IF
MIXING ADVECTS EVEN DRIER AIR TO THE SURFACE...THERE COULD BE A FEW
AREAS WHERE RED FLAG CRITERIA ARE MET. FOR NOW...WILL HIGHLIGHT
WINDY AND LOW RH IN FIRE WEATHER FORECAST AND NOT ISSUE A RED FLAG.

WITH LOSS OF HEATING...INVERSION SHOULD SET UP EARLY EVENING. MODELS
BRING LOBE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AROUND THE BIG
SPINNING GYRE OVER GREAT LAKES STATES THAT SHIFTS
EASTWARD...ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO RISE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. MOST
OF THE NORTH CAROLINA PORTION OF THE CWFA GETTING PARTLY CLOUDY
WORDING. COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES...AND WILL KEEP WINDY WORDING IN
FOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. DAY SHIFT WILL NEED TO CONSIDER
POTENTIAL INCLUSION OF WIND ADVISORY THERE OVERNIGHT.

WEAK SURFACE RIDGING TO BEGIN TUESDAY...BUT STILL POTENTIAL FOR
MAXIMUM MIXING WHICH COULD RESULT IN WINDY CONDITIONS
AGAIN...ESPECIALLY HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. HAVE INCLUDED WINDY AGAIN
FOR TUESDAY IN THE MOUNTAINS...BUT HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON WINDS
FOR FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT DID KEEP BREEZY IN FOR THE NORTHWEST
PIEDMONT BUT MODEL SURFACE WINDS CAME IN LOWER ON THIS RUN THAN
PREVIOUS...AND MOST FOOTHILL/PIEDMONT LOCATIONS GET A 10 TO 15 MPH
RANGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

COLD ADVECTION STRONG TODAY AND TONIGHT...SO HAVE LIMITED MOUNTAIN
TEMPERATURE CLIMBS TODAY AND...AND AGAIN TUESDAY. DESPITE STRONG
COLD ADVECTION ALSO INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT...DOWNSLOPE WILL
OFFSET IT SOMEWHAT AND SUN STRENGTH THIS TIME OF YEAR MAY BE ENOUGH
TO BOOT MAXES UP TO NEAR HIGHER END OF GUIDANCE MAXES. THIS SEEMS
REALLY GOOD REASONING TODAY SINCE CURRENT TEMPERATURES RUNNING A FEW
DEGREES AHEAD OF SCHEDULE. SAME FOR TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH DID KNOCK
MAXES DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO MOST AREAS. WENT ALONG WITH CONSENSUS ON
OVERNIGHT MINS.

FCSTID =   44
GSP   81  50  79  50 /   0   0   0   0
AND   81  50  80  52 /   0   0   0   0
CLT   80  49  78  50 /   0   0   0   0
HKY   79  48  75  49 /   0   0   0   0
AVL   75  44  72  47 /   0   0   0   0

.GSP...
GA...WIND ADVISORY ALL AREA LAKES TODAY.
NC...HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THIS MORNING FOR ZONES NCZ033...
NCZ049>050.
WIND ADVISORY FOR TODAY FOR ZONES NCZ048...NCZ051>053...NCZ058>059...
NCZ062>065.
WIND ADVISORY FOR FOOTHILL AND PIEDMONT LAKES TODAY.
SC...WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL AREA LAKES TODAY.

BURRUS

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-111215-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
615 AM EDT SUN MAY 11 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY
A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS EASTERN TENNESSEE WILL
CROSS THE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING...AND PASS INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME STRENGTHENING OF THESE STORMS
COULD OCCUR AS THEY MOVE OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS...AND ONE OR TWO OF
THE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON COULD BECOME SEVERE. DAMAGING WIND IS THE
MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TODAY...BUT THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME HAIL
THE SIZE OF NICKELS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY. SPOTTER GROUPS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO STAY IN TOUCH WITH LATER STATEMENTS FROM THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FOR POTENTIAL NET ACTIVATION.

BURRUS