Flash Flooding and Hail in Texas, May 12, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
225 PM CDT MON MAY 12 2003

12/12Z SURFACE ANALYSIS WAS SHOWING A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS WITH WEAK SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA.
AMPLE 850MB MOISTURE WAS ALSO NOTED ON 12Z ANALYSIS OVER MUCH OF
THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA. THE 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS FRONT IS NOW
RETREATING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WITH DEW POINTS NEAR 50 FAR WEST AND
NORTHEAST WITH LOWER 60S SOUTHEAST.

VIS SAT CONFIRMS EARLY MORNING FORECAST WITH STORMS FIRING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AS DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S (57 AT KMRF) CONTRIBUTING
TO DECENT CAPES. DECENT SHEAR MAY ALLOW LONGER DURATION STORMS TO
PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/WINDS. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE
TONIGHT AND WE EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE CWA.
THE DRYLINE SHARPENS TOMORROW WITH S/SE SFC-850MB WINDS AND S/SW
700MB WINDS. NEGATIVE FACTOR FOR CONVECTION WILL BE A SHARP INCREASE
IN THE 700MB TEMPS...PARTICULARLY OVER THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER...WILL KEEP POPS OVER ROUGHLY THE EASTERN 1/3 OF THE CWA AS
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE TO ALLOW STORMS TO
DEVELOP. A COLD FRONT IS ADVERTISED BY THE SHORT RANGE MODELS TO
AFFECT THE NORTHERN ZONES LATE WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
SOUTHERN CA. LOW ORDER POPS OVER THE NORTH WILL REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST WITH FRONT SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR POSSIBLE CONVECTION. MID-
LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS FROM WLY TO SWLY AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER
LOW APPROACHES THE AREA. SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS OVER ERN CO/NM WILL
KEEP LOW-LEVEL WINDS FROM THE S/SE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA
WITH THE DRYLINE LIKELY RESUMING IT/S DIURNAL OSCILLATION THROUGH
FRIDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH ON
SATURDAY...BUT ANY COOLING WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE FAVORED ECMWF
SHOWS A RAPID BUILDING OF THE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FIELDS IN RESPONSE
TO A STRONG UPSTREAM LOW OVER THE PAC NW/INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. FOR
NOW...WE WILL CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

MAF EB 066/094 066/093 064 06222
CNM BB 061/095 062/094 062 062--
MRF BB 058/088 055/089 058 063--
FST EB 067/097 069/094 064 063--

.MAF...
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.

PLATT

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-131000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
300 PM CDT MON MAY 12 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
A COUPLE OF STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE PRODUCING
BRIEF STRONG WINDS...HAIL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING...PARTICULARLY IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS...HOWEVER WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

ALTHOUGH THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER WILL REMAIN
LOW TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY MAY AFFECT PARTS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. EARLY
INDICATIONS SUGGEST PARTS OF THE AREA MAY EXPERIENCE A MORE WIDESPREAD
AND SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER ON THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

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