Winter Storm in North Carolina, December 4, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
450 AM EST THU DEC 4 2003

.UPDATE...
ADDED WATCH WARNING ADVISORY SECTION. ZFP OUT AT 510 AM.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
WINTER WEATHER EVENT BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE AS PRECIP CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS EARLY THIS MORNING. CURRENT
WARNING AREA LOOKS GOOD TO GO...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT ICING
STILL HIGH. AS NOTED BY RAH...SOME CONCERN ABOUT PRECIP TYPE EARLY
ON WITH MID LEVEL THICKNESS ON 06Z GSO SOUNDING NEARLY 10M LOWER
THAN SHOWN BY MODELS. THIS MIGHT MEAN A BIT MORE SNOW/SLEET
ACCUMULATION BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE NW
PIEDMONT ZONES. THINK WARNING STILL LOOKS GOOD IN THAT AREA.
HOWEVER...DO NOT PLAN ON EXPANDING WARNING AT THIS TIME OVER
CONCERNS ABOUT PRECIP AMOUNTS THIS MORNING BEFORE WE WARM ENOUGH
OUTSIDE WARNED AREA AND PRECIP CHANGES TO RAIN. WILL TRANSITION
WINTER STORM WATCH AREA TO AN ADVISORY FOR TODAY. ALTHOUGH
TRANSITION SHOULD OCCUR FROM SW TO E DURING THE MID MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON...WORDING WILL BE FOR TODAY IN ORDER TO NOT OVERLY
COMPLICATE THE ISSUE. EXPECT DAY SHIFT WILL BE ABLE TO TRIM COUNTIES
OFF FROM SW TO NE AS WE WORK THROUGH THE DAY. A FEW OF THE ZONES ARE
TOUGH TO CALL IN THE MOUNTAINS AND MIGHT ADD TO WARNING IF REPORTS
OVER NEXT FEW HOURS INDICATE THIS TO BE NECESSARY.

AS FOR FORECAST TODAY...TEMPS WILL DROP A BIT AS PRECIP MOVES
ACROSS...AND THEN A VERY SLOW CLIMB IN THE AFTERNOON. PRECIP TYPE
SHOULD TRANSITION TO RAIN ACROSS ALL BUT NC FOOTHILLS AND PART OF NW
PIEDMONT BY AFTERNOON...WHERE ICING POTENTIAL WILL HOLD ON TO
SUNSET. NO CHANGES EXPECTED WITH MAIN PRECIP MOVING OUT THIS
EVENING. TEMPS SHOULD SLOWLY WARM ACROSS MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT. AS IN
THESE SITUATIONS...EXPECT TO HAVE WIDESPREAD FOG FOR A WHILE AT
LEAST IN THE EVENING.

WILL REWORK FRIDAY POP TRENDS...REFLECTING AN INCREASE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS DYNAMIC FORCING ALONG AND OUT AHEAD OF APPROACHING
CLOSED LOW MOVES IN. WILL CONTINUE TO HANG ONTO AN ALL LIQUID TREND
DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A TUMBLE IN
CRITICAL 850-700 MB THICKNESS VALUES BEFORE SUNSET ACRS THE NC
MTNS...GIVING RISE TO A HIGHER ELEVATION CHANGEOVER.

SHORT RANGE MODELS IN CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH TRACK OF CLOSED LOW ACRS
THE CWFA INTO SATURDAY...WITH GFS CONTINUING TO BE FURTHEST SOUTH.
THIS LOOKS TO BE CRITICAL FOR FRIDAY EVENING PERIOD AS MY NC MTNS
MAY WIND UP BEING BEING A BIT TOO FAR SOUTH FOR STRONGEST LIFT THIS
PERIOD...AS INDICATED BY RATHER PALTRY CANADIAN QPF...BUT
NONETHELESS...AT LEAST A DECENT PERIOD OF LIFT AND NW FLOW SHOULD
OCCUR...SO WILL RAISE POPS INTO LIKELY CATEGORY FOR THE NORTHERN
MTNS. A SIMILAR CONCERN ARISES FOR MY NC FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT
ZONES...IN POSSIBLY BEING JUST A BIT TOO FAR SOUTH THRU SATURDAY...
BUT HARD TO BELIEVE AT LEAST SOME SNOW WONT FALL...AND POSSIBLY
ACCUMULATE...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE IN CHC CATEGORY FOR NOW.

PLAN ON ISSUING SPS OUTLOOK TO SUMMARIZE SNOW THREAT DURING THIS
PERIOD.

BUMPED MONDAYS HIGHS UP A TAD CWA-WIDE AS OFFSHORE CLOSED LOW SHOULD
ENHANCE SUBSIDENCE OF APPROACHING APPALACHIAN RIDGE...OTHERWISE NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES SEEM REASONABLE TUE/WED. LOOKS LIKE WEDNESDAY
WILL NEED CHANCE -SHRA POPS PER LATEST MEX AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.
A PROGRESSIVE MRF HAS WELL DEVELOPED MILLER-A REACHING THE TENN/OHIO
VALLEY BY 12Z WED...SWINGING A DECENT COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA
DURING THE DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GSP 37 35 46 34 / 99 80 30 30
AND 39 35 47 34 / 99 70 30 30
CLT 37 36 46 34 / 99 90 30 30
HKY 33 33 45 32 / 99 90 40 40
AVL 35 34 43 32 / 99 80 40 50
&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-028.
NC...WINTER STORM WARNING TODAY FOR NCZ033>037-048>057-059-063>069.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM FOR NCZ070>072-082.
SC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM FOR SCZ001>010-012>014.

&&

MOORE/55/KRENTZ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
546 AM EST THU DEC 4 2003

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-041300-
ABBEVILLE SC-ALEXANDER NC-ANDERSON SC-AVERY NC-BUNCOMBE NC-BURKE NC-
CABARRUS NC-CALDWELL NC-CATAWBA NC-CHEROKEE SC-CHESTER SC-
CLEVELAND NC-DAVIE NC-ELBERT GA-FRANKLIN GA-GASTON NC-GRAHAM NC-
GREATER GREENVILLE SC-GREATER OCONEE SC-GREATER PICKENS SC-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS SC-GREENWOOD SC-HABERSHAM GA-HART GA-HAYWOOD NC-
HENDERSON NC-IREDELL NC-LAURENS SC-LINCOLN NC-MACON NC-MADISON NC-
MCDOWELL NC-MECKLENBURG NC-MITCHELL NC-NORTHERN JACKSON NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS SC-PICKENS MOUNTAINS SC-POLK NC-RABUN GA-ROWAN NC-
RUTHERFORD NC-SOUTHERN JACKSON NC-SPARTANBURG SC-STEPHENS GA-
SWAIN NC-TRANSYLVANIA NC-UNION SC-UNION NC-YANCEY NC-YORK SC-
546 AM EST THU DEC 4 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...
A VARIETY OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...WHICH COULD RESULT IN SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 4 INCHES AT
SOME NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS...AND SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING ICE
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS AND NORTHWEST
PIEDMONT. SEVERAL WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT. FOR MORE
INFORMATION...SEE THE LATEST WSWGSP ISSUED AT 439 AM. THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
COLD AIR WILL RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD
DEVELOP...MAINLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. THE SNOW SHOWERS COULD PERSIST
INTO SATURDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN SOME ACCUMULATION IN THE
MOUNTAINS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...SEE THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
(SPSGSP) ISSUED AT 428 AM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

MOORE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
428 AM EST THU DEC 4 2003

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>010-
012>014-042115-
ALEXANDER NC-ANDERSON SC-AVERY NC-BUNCOMBE NC-BURKE NC-CABARRUS NC-
CALDWELL NC-CATAWBA NC-CHEROKEE SC-CHESTER SC-CLEVELAND NC-DAVIE NC-
FRANKLIN GA-GASTON NC-GRAHAM NC-GREATER GREENVILLE SC-
GREATER OCONEE SC-GREATER PICKENS SC-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS SC-
HABERSHAM GA-HART GA-HAYWOOD NC-HENDERSON NC-IREDELL NC-LAURENS SC-
LINCOLN NC-MACON NC-MADISON NC-MCDOWELL NC-MECKLENBURG NC-
MITCHELL NC-NORTHERN JACKSON NC-OCONEE MOUNTAINS SC-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS SC-POLK NC-RABUN GA-ROWAN NC-RUTHERFORD NC-
SOUTHERN JACKSON NC-SPARTANBURG SC-STEPHENS GA-SWAIN NC-
TRANSYLVANIA NC-UNION SC-UNION NC-YANCEY NC-YORK SC-
428 AM EST THU DEC 4 2003

...ONGOING WINTRY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA...

THE COMBINATION OF COLD HIGH PRESSURE WEDGED INTO THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS...AND AN INCREASING NORTHWARD TRANSPORT OF MOISTURE OUT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...HAS RESULTED IN A
WIDE VARIETY OF WINTER WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. WINTER
STORM WARNINGS AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES CONTINUE TO BE IN
EFFECT. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST WSWGSP FOR DETAILS.

AFTER PRECIPITATION ENDS TONIGHT...ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY. COLDER AIR WILL SPILL BACK INTO
THE REGION AS THIS LOW MOVES ACROSS FRIDAY NIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
A ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR MORE PERSISTENT AND HEAVIER ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
SEEN ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS...AND ESPECIALLY THE HIGH
MOUNTAINS NORTH OF ASHEVILLE.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/GSP