Sleet in North Carolina, December 13 to 14, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
330 PM EST SAT DEC 13 2003

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEDGING HIGH MATURING AS WAVE DEEPENS NEAR
THE MS DELTA. MSAS WET BULB ANALYSIS SHOWING <32 VALUES SLIPPING
FURTHER SOUTH...EXTENDING AS FAR SOUTH AS KHKY. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS
PRECIP SPREADING EAST...WITH A SECONDARY AREA DEVELOPING IN AN AREA
OF ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE MIDLANDS. ETA AND GFS SHOWING CRITICAL
PARTIAL THICKNESS DECREASING THROUGH 6Z SUN. AS WARM NOSE EXPANDS
TONIGHT...WINTRY PRECIP WILL ERODE NORTHWARD. BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE ATLANTIC COAST TAKING THE
BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT WITH IT. EXCEPTION WILL ALONG THE TN
BORDER...AS NW FLOW AND CAA WILL INCREASE AND FUEL SHSN FROM SUN
AFTERNOON THROUGH MON AM. FOR THIS PACKAGE...WILL USE A BLEND OF THE
ETA AND GFS...WHICH WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHTLY WARMER SOLUTION OF THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PRECIP BEGINNING AS PL & RA OVER THE I-40
CORRIDOR AND HIGHER TERRAIN. AS LLVL CAA IS AT ITS PEAK BETWEEN
02-06Z SUN...RAIN AND FZRA WILL ADVANCE SOUTH. WILL EXPECT AREAS
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-85 TO EXPERIENCE THE BRUNT OF THE WINTRY WX. BY
SUN AM...EXPECT ICE ACCUMS TO RANGE FROM A HALF INCH OVER ALEXANDER
COUNTY TO TRACE AMOUNTS IN THE TREETOPS OF NORTHERN ANDERSON COUNTY.

SUN AFTERNOON...LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE VA COAST AND DOWNSLOPE
WINDS WILL HAMPER PRECIP EAST OF THE MTNS. HOWEVER...CAA AND
LLVL MOISTURE WILL LINGER EAST OF THE MTNS AND WILL SUPPLY SHSN
THROUGH MON AM. ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 1 TO 3
INCHES OVER THE NRN MTNS...WITH AN INCH OR TWO DOWN THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACH.

EXTENDED...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. COLD FRONT MOVES THRU WED.
THICKNESSES/TEMPS RIGHT NOW APPEAR WARM ENOUGH FOR JUST RAIN...UNTIL
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE/NW FLOW KICK IN LATE IN THE DAY. ALSO TRACK OF
THE SYSTEM NOT FAVORABLE FOR WINTRY PRECIP EARLY. DECENT NW FLOW/CAA
WED NIGHT...SO STILL INDICATING SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NC MTNS. DRY
FCST FROM THU ON. WEAK SYSTEM MOVES THRU LATE SAT...BUT LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF MOISTURE. STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS THRU THE
PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GSP 34 43 31 56 / 99 90 20 00
AND 35 44 30 56 / 99 80 10 00
CLT 34 42 30 55 / 99 90 20 00
HKY 31 39 27 53 / 99 90 20 10
AVL 30 39 28 51 / 99 90 20 00
&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY GAZ010-017.
NC...WINTER STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NCZ034>037-054>057.
WINTER STORM WARNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
NCZ033-049-050.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NCZ048-052>053-064>072-082.
SC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY SCZ001>003.
&&

NED/RWH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
600 AM EST SAT DEC 13 2003

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-131300-
ABBEVILLE SC-ALEXANDER NC-ANDERSON SC-AVERY NC-BUNCOMBE NC-BURKE NC-
CABARRUS NC-CALDWELL NC-CATAWBA NC-CHEROKEE SC-CHESTER SC-
CLEVELAND NC-DAVIE NC-ELBERT GA-FRANKLIN GA-GASTON NC-GRAHAM NC-
GREATER GREENVILLE SC-GREATER OCONEE SC-GREATER PICKENS SC-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS SC-GREENWOOD SC-HABERSHAM GA-HART GA-HAYWOOD NC-
HENDERSON NC-IREDELL NC-LAURENS SC-LINCOLN NC-MACON NC-MADISON NC-
MCDOWELL NC-MECKLENBURG NC-MITCHELL NC-NORTHERN JACKSON NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS SC-PICKENS MOUNTAINS SC-POLK NC-RABUN GA-ROWAN NC-
RUTHERFORD NC-SOUTHERN JACKSON NC-SPARTANBURG SC-STEPHENS GA-
SWAIN NC-TRANSYLVANIA NC-UNION SC-UNION NC-YANCEY NC-YORK SC-
600 AM EST SAT DEC 13 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL MOVE
STEADILY TOWARD THE ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. MOISTURE WILL
INVADE THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH...AT THE SAME TIME THAT DRIER
SURFACE AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
DOWN THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE RESULT WILL BE DEVELOPING RAIN
THIS AFTERNOON...THAT WILL BE MIXED WITH SLEET EARLY.
OVERNIGHT...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL DOMINATE THE NORHTERN
REACHES OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHERE A WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN
POSTED. A MIXTURE OF RAIN...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET IS FORECAST FOR
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA...THE SOUTHERN
FOOTHILLS AND SOUTHERN PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAORLINA AND THE NORTHERN
TIER OF UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA...AND MUCH OF
THIS AREA HAS BEEN PLACED UNDER A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY. SEE THE LATEST WINTER STORM
WARNING AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...UNDER THE PRODUCT PIL
CAEWSWGSP...FOR MORE DETAILS...AS WELL AS THE LATEST SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT UNDER THE PIL CAESPSGSP FOR INFORMATION ON COUNTIES NOT
UNDER EITHER THE WARNING OR ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
RESIDUAL SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN COULD CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING. BY
LATE AFTERNOON...LEFTOVER RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS COULD CHANGE
TO SNOW SHOWERS AS COLDER AIR FUNNELS INTO THE REGION. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS COULD APPROACH AN INCH FROM LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
EVENING FOR AREAS NEAR THE TENNESSEE BORDER.

LOOKING DOWN THE ROAD A PACE...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT OUR
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BUT AT THIS JUNCTURE...ANY
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE RAIN. YET ANOTHER STORM WILL RETURN
PRECIPITATION TO THE FORECAST AREA FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
352 PM EST SAT DEC 13 2003

GAZ018-026-028-NCZ082-SCZ004>010-140400-
ANDERSON SC-CHEROKEE SC-FRANKLIN GA-GREATER GREENVILLE SC-
GREATER OCONEE SC-GREATER PICKENS SC-HART GA-SPARTANBURG SC-
STEPHENS GA-UNION NC-YORK SC-
352 PM EST SAT DEC 13 2003

...WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN
MOUNTAINS AND UNION COUNTY OF NORTH CAROLINA...PARTS OF UPSTATE SOUTH
CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA TONIGHT...

COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS
TONIGHT...WHILE GULF MOISTURE SPREADS NORTH INTO THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA. LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL OVERSPREAD
THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOME WINTRY
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTH
CAROLINA...GENERALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 85 AND NOT COVERED BY THE
CURRENT WARNING OR ADVISORY...A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN IS
POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SOME SLEET COULD FALL THIS
EVENING AS WELL. A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF ICE IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
ON ELEVATED SURFACES...BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO ALL RAIN
EARLY SUNDAY.

ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA...NEAR BRYSON
CITY AND ROBBINSVILLE...PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS RAIN...POSSIBLY
MIXED WITH SOME SLEET OR EVEN SNOW. LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING...SOME FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN VALLEYS WHERE COLDER AIR
COULD BE TRAPPED. AFTER THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AT THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS ALONG THE TENNESSEE BORDER.

SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR
INVADING FROM THE NORTH...AS WELL AS THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTH. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE
EXTENDED TO COVER ALL OR PART OF THIS AREA IF THE WINTRY
PRECIPITATION BECOMES HEAVIER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR THE MEDIA FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION CONCERNING THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION.

RWH