Flash Flooding and Hail in North Carolina, August 5 to 6, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
159 PM EDT TUE AUG 5 2003

CONVECTIVE ENERGY IS IN AMPLE SUPPLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED JET DYNAMICS ENHANCING THE CONVECTIVE
PROCESS.  A LIMITING FACTOR TO RAINFALL COVERAGE MAY BE THE SUPPLY
OF MOISTURE IN PREDOMINANTLY WESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS.

IN ADDITION TO AFTERNOON AIRMASS CONVECTION...MODELS SHOW A COLD
FRONT ALOFT TYPE FEATURE IN THE MIDLEVEL THETA-E/ WET BULB ZERO
FIELDS SUGGESTING A CONVECTIVE BAND MOVING NW-SE ACROSS THE AREA
00-06Z TONIGHT. DRIER ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD MEAN A MORE
WIDELY SCATTERED PATTERN AND POPS OF 40-50 PERCENT SHOULD SUFFICE
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.  CURRENT MIN TEMPERATURES ARE IN LINE WITH
LATEST GUIDANCE.

WED...PERHAPS THE DRIEST DAY IN RAINFALL COVERAGE THIS WEEK.  DRY
AIR IN THE COLUMN SHOULD LIMIT RAINFALL.  HOWEVER...CONTINUED
INSTABILITY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD PROMPT AFTERNOON
TSTMS WITH A 40 PERCENT POP IN THE COASTAL PLAIN DROPPING BACK TO A
20 PERCENT CHANCE IN THE WEST.   GUIDANCE HIGHS SUPPORT CURRENT MID
TO UPPER 80S.

WED NIGHT INTO THU...MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF A
TROUGH FROM THE WEST.  A RETRENCHMENT OF THE HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH
ALOFT OVER THE APPALACHIANS...SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
FLOW...AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP A THREAT OF SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDER OVER THE REGION WED NIGHT AND MORE SO WITH
HEATING ON THU.  LITTLE CHANGE FROM GUIDANCE LOWS AND HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED. -RFG

THU NIGHT THROUGH TUE: LATEST ETA/GFS AGREE ON VORT MAX ROUNDING
TROUGH BASE THU NIGHT WITH ENHANCED UPPER DIVERGENCE AND ATTENDANT
SURFACE LOW TRACKING OVER THE WRN RAH CWA LATE THU NIGHT OR FRI.
CONTINUE HIGH CHANCE POPS DURING THIS PERIOD. NCEP ENSEMBLE/ECMWF/
UKMET SHOW THE FRONT HOLDING OVER WRN CWA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
LOWS TRACKING NORTH ALONG IT. CONTINUE CHANCE POPS--HIGHER EAST--
MAINLY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. ECMWF/00Z OP GFS IMPLY AN
SOUTHEASTWARD NUDGE OF THE FRONT MON/TUE AS TROUGH TILTS MORE
POSITIVELY & FLOW ALOFT GOES A BIT MORE ANTICYCLONIC... BUT NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH YET TO REDUCE POPS SIGNIFICANTLY. CURRENT
MAXES/MINS LOOK FINE. -GIH

.RAH...SVR TSTM WATCH 840 NWRN HALF CWA.

GIH/RFG

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-051200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
550 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

THERE IS THE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 445 AM EDT FOR MORE INFORMATION.

OTHERWISE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY AGAIN TODAY. ISOLATED
AMOUNTS BETWEEN THREE AND FIVE MAY OCCUR IN LESS THAN TWO HOURS.
THIS TYPE OF RAIN WILL QUICKLY FILL POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND CAUSE
EXTENSIVE PONDING OF WATER ON THE ROADWAYS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

A THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-060000-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1105 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2003

...RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL LATE TONIGHT
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...

.SKYWARN SPOTTERS...
ACTIVATION OF THE TRIAD...CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...AND SANDHILLS
SPOTTER NETWORKS MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT THREATENING AND SEVERE WEATHER OF
ANY KIND TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

.SYNOPTIC PATTERN...
AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL COUPLE
WITH WARM HUMID AIR TO GENERATE STRONG AND POSSIBLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO SCATTERED STORMS AT THE
TIME OF MAXIMUM HEATING THIS AFTERNOON...AN UPPER LEVEL COLD FRONT
WILL LIKELY CAUSE ANOTHER BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS LATER TONIGHT.

.HAZARDOUS WEATHER DETAILS...
BECAUSE OF COLDER DRIER AIR WITH STRONGER WINDS ALOFT...THE TWO MAIN
THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS TO 65 MPH AND HAIL TO
NEAR GOLF BALL SIZE. FREQUENT INTENSE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING CAN
ALSO BE EXPECTED.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED TO START
OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AROUND 2 OR 3 PM.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

RFG