Flash Flood in New York, August 5, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
305 PM EDT TUE AUG 5 2003

DECIDED TO GO WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN THE NRN FINGER LAKES AS
PER COORD WITH BUF...THANKS. SCTRD TSRA HAVE FORMED OVER THE WATCH
AREA AND ARE NOT MOVING MUCH. IN ADDTN BAND OF SHRA AND TSRA IS
HEADING IN THIS DIRECTION AS WELL. ETA PIVOTS THIS BAND OVR THIS
AREA AND SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER RAIN THIS EVE. FFA OUT FOR
THESE AREAS FOR TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM...(TON THRU THU)

AREA RADARS SHOW LARGE BAND OF SHRA/TSRA FROM SE TO NW FROM NJ ACRS
ERN PA TO C AND WRN NY. THIS ACVTY HAS FORMED IN ADVANCE OF AN UPR
LVL PV GRADIENT WHICH IS A REFLECTION OF A SIG SHRT WAVE. THIS WAVE
WILL TRACK THRU THE REGION BY LATE THIS EVE. BAND OF SHRA/TSRA WILL
CONT TO MOVE N AND EVENTUALLY PIVOT AND LAY ACRS WRN AND CNTRL NY TO
NRN NY BY ARND 6Z. MAIN QUESTION IS WHETHER THE INTENSITY WILL
REMAIN HIGH ENUF TO CAUSE HEAVY RAINFALL. THINK POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
LOCALLY HVY RAINFALL IN THIS BAND AS IT WORKS ACRS THE CWA LATE THIS
AFTRN AND EVE...BUT BY A FEW HOURS AFTER THE SUNSETS THINK ACVTY
WILL WANE TO SCT SHRA WITH A FEW TSRA MAINLY OVR THE NRN AND WRN
CWA...REST OF CWA LIKELY WILL DRY OUT SOME. LL WINDS TURN MORE SWRLY
AFTER THE BAND PASSES BY WHICH SHUD ALLOW DWPTS TO DROP A BIT. THINK
CLDS WILL BREAK UP IN NE PA AND HV 45-60 PCT CLD CVR IN GRIDS.
HIGHEST CLD CVR WILL BE ACRS NC NY OVRNGT.

LEANING AWAY FROM A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME...AS MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION IN THIS BAND OF SHRA/TSRA IS APPEARING TO STRATIFORM
OUT. WE HAVE HAD A FEW ISOLATED CELLS FORM ACRS THE NRN FINGER LAKES
REGION AHEAD OF THIS PRECIP SHIELD WHICH ARE MOVG VERY SLOWLY. SIG
RAINS HAVE OCCURRED LOCALLY IN A FEW LOCATIONS BUT THE RAINFALL HAS
FALLEN SHORT OF FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE SO WE HAVE URBAN SS ADVY/S OUT
FOR NOW. BELIEVE HVY RAINS WILL REMAIN ISLD IN NATURE AND GIVEN THE
FACT THAT THE BGM CWA HAS NOT SEEN THE KIND OF RAINS THAT
ALY/S...CTP/S...PHI/S AND OKX/S THE PAST FEW DAYS...WE LIKELY WILL
HOLD OFF ON THIS FOR NOW.

FOR WED... UPR LVL TROF AXIS LIFTS ACRS REGION...LL REMAIN MOIST AND
WITH SUNSHINE BELIEVE ANTHR ROUND OF SHRA AND TSRA WILL FORM BY
AFTRN. HOWEVER...BELIEVE COVERAGE WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN TODAY AND
WILL ONLY HV CHC FOR WED AFTRN AND EVE. FOR THU...ANTHR WAVE PASSES
ACRS NY/PA AND AGAIN WILL KEEP CHC POPS FOR SHRA AND TSRA THRU THU.

EXTENDED PERIOD (THU NGT - TUE)

CONTINUED WITH CHCS FOR CONVECTION THROUGH MONDAY AS THE UPR TROF
HANGS ON. OPTED FOR DRY WEATHER NXT TUESDAY, ALTHO SOME ACTIVITY
COULD LINGER OVER FAR ERN ZONES.

.BGM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE NRN FINGER LAKES FOR TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM...NICOSIA
EXTENDED...BRADY

NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043-
044-047-048-072-060915-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
336 AM TUE AUG 5 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...MAINLY ALONG
THE NYS BORDER AND INTO NORTHEASTERN PA. A VERY HUMID AND WARM
AIRMASS IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. SOME OF
THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PREVAIL FROM MONDAY INTO LATE WEEK.
THE MAIN CONCERN IS FOR REPEATED DAILY THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SAME
AREA CAUSING PROBLEMS ALONG SMALLER STREAMS.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.