Damaging Winds in North Carolina, August 22, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG, VA
202 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2003

TNGT-SAT...LINE OF TSRA ALONG OLD OUTFLOW NOW HEADING INTO THE WRN
ZONES IN ADVANCE OF SFC COLD FRONT SAGGING ACROSS THE OH RIVER.
EXPECT WITH GOOD INSTAB PER CAPES ARND 3K OR BETTER...WILL SEE BKN
LINE CONT AT LEAST W OF THE BLUE RIDGE EARLY ON WITH SCTD COVERAGE
ELSW. QUESTION THEN IS OVERNIGHT WITH ADDED TSRA THREAT AS ACTUAL
FRONT APCHS LATE. NEW ETA ALMOST BONE DRY WHILE GFS SPINS PROBABLE
SPURIOUS TSRA COMPLEX UP ACROSS THE W LIKELY OVERDONE FROM EARLIER
85H JETLET. AT THIS POINT WILL PLAY MORE ON THE WET SIDE GIVEN ADTNL
UPSTREAM LIFT/GOING INSTAB AND CONT HIGH POPS W/DECENT CHCY POPS
E...ALTHO LIMITED BY DOWNSLOPE. LOW TEMPS A LITTLE BELOW MOS TO
ACCOUNT FOR COOLING VIA CONVECTION OTRW MOS OK. ACTUAL DEWPT FRONT
STILL APPEARS ON TIME TO CROSS THE NRN CWA EARLY SAT BEFORE SLOWING
NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER IN THE AFTN. INSTAB/MCON AND SLOWER FROPA
SUPPORT SCTD PRECIP NW NC/SOUTHSIDE VA ALTHO THINK MORE ORGANIZED
AREA WILL SLIP S WITH BEST RH DEPTH/TRANSPORT. OTRW CLOUDS/DEWPTS ON
THE DECREASE FROM THE N SAT AS CAA OR DRY ADVECTION KICKS IN. TEMPS
GNRLY CLOSE TO MAV BUT COULD GO HIGHER S PENDING AMT OF INSOLATION
AND FROPA TIMING.

SUN-MON...SFC RIDGE WILL BUILD SWD OVER THE AREA SUNDAY BEFORE
SPILLING OFF THE SE COAST INTO MON. WITH 5H TROF A BIT FLATTER AND
FASTER TO EXIT WONT SEE DRY DEWPTS LAST TOO LONG WITH SOME RETURN
FLOW DVLPG BY LATER MON. ETA EVEN SHOWING A QUICK RETURN OF
INSTAB/RH AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER S/W BUT THINK MOISTURE TOO SHLW FOR
ANY POPS ATTM. TEMPS LOWER THRU THE PERIOD WITH LOW DEWPTS PRODUCING
A COOLISH MON MORNING FOR LATE AUG.

EXTENDED...PATTERN LOOKS TO BE DOMINATED BY FLAT UPPER FLOW WITH
SPOKE OF S/W ENERGY DRIVING ANOTHER WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE CWA AROUND
MIDWEEK. ALTHO RETURN OF DEEP RH WILL BE LIMITED...THINK ENOUGH DIFF
HEATING PER LACK OF CAP TO GO WITH ISOLD POPS RIDGES TUE/WED
AFTNS...THEN CHCY ALL ZONES THU PER FRONT OTRW PC. TEMPS GNRLY
SEASONAL WITH 75-80 W AND MID 80S E FOR HIGHS TUE-FRI.

FCSTID =    9
ROA   68  84  60  82 /  40  20  10   0
LYH   68  83  57  81 /  40  20  10   0
DAN   69  86  65  83 /  30  40  20   0
BLF   62  74  55  75 /  50  20  10   0
LWB   59  76  55  74 /  50  10  10   0
BCB   62  79  56  76 /  40  20  10   0
TNB   61  77  57  74 /  40  30  20   0

.RNK...
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

JH/JDS

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
WVZ042>045-231100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1048 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...
WESTERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA...AS WELL AS NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME
OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND HAIL. IN
ADDITION...RAINFALL RATES OF 2 INCHES IN AN HOUR COULD
OCCUR...RESULTING IN PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND FLOODING OF LOW
LYING AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

VAZ007-009>014-016>020-WVZ042>045-221900-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
102 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2003

...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS...

A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE GREENBRIER
VALLEY OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE OF
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA BETWEEN 2:00 PM AND 4:00 PM.  SOME OF THESE
STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG WINDS ALONG WITH
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND SOME HAIL.  MORE STORMS WILL FOLLOW THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING WITH THE FOCUS
BEING PRIMARILY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND LOCALIZE FLASH FLOODING.

AHEAD OF THIS LINE OF STORMS ARE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
PRODUCING BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE STRONGER LINE OF STORMS WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE VIRGINIA HIGHLAND AND NEW RIVER VALLEY...BETWEEN
4:00 PM AND 6:00 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

RCS

NCZ001>003-018>020-VAZ015-221930-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
134 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2003

...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST
NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS THIS AFTERNOON.  SOME OF
THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG WINDS ALONG WITH
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND SOME HAIL.  MORE STORMS WILL FOLLOW THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING WITH THE FOCUS
BEING PRIMARILY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND LOCALIZE FLASH FLOODING.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

NCZ004>006-VAZ043-044-058-221930-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
238 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2003

...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE PIEDMONT
COUNTIES OF NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA THIS
AFTERNOON.  SOME OF THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS UP TO 40 MPH...ALONG WITH TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND SOME HAIL.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

RCS

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ015-016-032-043-222200-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
403 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2003

...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING SLOWLY THROUGH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING SLOWLY THROUGH
NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA THIS AFTERNOON.
SOME OF THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS UP TO
40 MPH...ALONG WITH TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND SOME HAIL.
THESE STORM WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

RCS