Hail and Damaging Winds in Oklahoma, August 22, 2003

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA
300 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2003

HOT/HUMID CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL.  ISOLATED TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.  CU FIELD LESS
EXTENSIVE THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME...SO EXPECT PRECIP COVERAGE TO
BE LESS WITH ACTIVITY DISSIPATING BY EARLY EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
SURFACE HEATING.  COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST NORTH OF FA OVER
SOUTHEAST KANSAS/SOUTHWEST MISSOURI WILL BECOME DIFFUSE OVER THE
NEXT 12-24 HOURS WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON AREA.  TRENDED FORECAST MORE
TOWARD THE WARMER ETA THROUGH MONDAY.

NEXT COLD FRONT NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO THE AREA INTO
TUESDAY...THEREFORE BUMPED TEMPS UP FROM PREV FORECAST SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING BY SUNDAY
NIGHT...TUL WILL LIKELY BE AROUND 80 AGAIN FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.  DID
ADD POPS TUESDAY WITH FRONT...OTHERWISE NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES TO
EXTENDED.

PRELIM NUMBERS:

TUL    75  100   76  101 /  10   10   10   10
FSM    74  100   74  100 /  20   20   10   10
MLC    71  100   71  100 /  10   10   10   10
BVO    69  101   70  101 /  10   10   10   10
FYV    67   95   67   96 /  20   20   10   10
BYV    67   94   67   96 /  20   20   10   10
MKO    73  100   73  100 /  10   10   10   10
MIO    71   98   71   99 /  10   10   10   10
F10    71  100   71  100 /  10   10   10   10
HHW    73   99   73   99 /  30   20   10   10

FORECAST ID= 12

.TSA...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-231100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
600 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2003

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING.  WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED...HOWEVER A FEW STORMS MAY BRIEFLY REACH SEVERE LIMITS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS TO
AROUND 60 MPH.  A COLD FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS KANSAS AND MISSOURI
THIS MORNING WILL APPROACH NORTHERN AREAS LATER TODAY.  CONVERGENCE
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH.  ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA AFTERNOON HEATING MAY ALSO RESULT IN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS AND FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.  ANY ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS
THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY EARLY EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING.

A HEAT ADVISORY IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR TULSA COUNTY TODAY.  SEE
/OKCNPWTUL/ FOR DETAILS. HEAT INDICES THIS AFTERNOON WILL AGAIN RUN
IN THE 104 TO 108 RANGE.

WARNING PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES CAN BE
FOUND IN THE OUTLOOK SECTION AT: WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA. GIVEN
PROBABILITIES REPRESENT THE POTENTIAL FOR A WARNING TO BE ISSUED AT
YOUR LOCATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
LOW CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY AS THE
REMNANTS OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE
WASHING OUT.  AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN HOT AND
DRY CONDITIONS.

.SPOTTER / EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCIES AND STORM SPOTTER GROUPS SHOULD
MONITOR LATER FORECASTS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT...
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
0946 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0455 PM    CHESTER                   AR   0.75 IN HAIL
08/21/03   CRAWFORD

BM