Flash Flooding and Hail in Kentucky, August 22, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
242 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2003

...SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...

MORNING UPPER AIR CHARTS REVEAL UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. AND A SECONDARY HIGH OVER THE CAROLINAS.  UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONES WERE LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE EASTERN
PACIFIC...OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST.  CLOSER TO HOME...UPPER LEVEL H5
TROF AXIS WAS LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  CURRENT TEMPS
ACROSS THE REGION WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...WITH LOW 80S
REPORTED AT SDF AND EVV.  THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX JUST NORTHEAST OF
INDY HAS BEEN MOVING SOUTH...OR JUST WEST OF SOUTH THIS MORNING.
COMPLEX HAS REALLY WEAKENED IN THE LAST 30-45 MINUTES...HOWEVER AS
THE REMNANTS MOVE SOUTHWARD...THEY WILL SERVE AS A BOUNDARY FOCUS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM.  MAIN
FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE PRECIP CHANCES TODAY AND THEN CLEARING
LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY.  FOR TODAY...LEFT OVER BOUNDARIES
FROM THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION WILL HELP KICK OFF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA.  MODELS INDICATING A HIGH INSTABILITY
LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR THIS AFTERNOON.  SO WE COULD SEE SOME
ISOLATED PULSE-SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH WINDS AND HAIL
AS THE MAIN THREATS.  HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
TRICKY DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND CONVECTION.  STILL
THINK WELL HAVE MORE CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AND PLAN ON UNDERCUTTING
MOS SOMEWHAT...UPPER 80S SHOULD SUFFICE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE FA WITH NEAR 90 OR LOWER 90S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA.  FRONTAL
BOUNDARY HEADS ON THROUGH THE COMMONWEALTH TONIGHT AND WILL BRING AN
END TO THE PRECIP.  HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY BUILD INTO
THE REGION FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.  PLAN ON GOING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS THROUGH THAT PERIOD.  MAV/MET/FWC NUMBERS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLEND THERE.

...EXTENDED (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES KEEPING THE
FA DRY...SLOWLY INCREASING THICKNESSES WILL GIVE INCREASING TEMPS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRY PATTERN WILL PERSIST UNTIL MID WEEK
WHEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE OHIO VALLEY. MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND LIFT FROM THE TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS TO POP DURING THE AFTN/EVEN
WEDNESDAY...AND A BETTER SHOT FOR THURSDAY WHEN THE AXIS OF THE
TROUGH IS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE FA. SEASONAL TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...INCREASING HUMIDITY FROM TUESDAY ON AS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
BRING MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE AREA. -ABS

.LMK...NONE.

JARVIS

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-231100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1220 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH
CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HEAT INDICES WILL LIKELY REACH BETWEEN 100 AND 105 DEGREES ACROSS
MUCH OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON.
IF YOU ARE WORKING OR PLAYING OUTDOORS THIS AFTERNOON...REMEMBER TO
TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS AND DRINK PLENTY OF WATER.

MEANWHILE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO SETTLE SOUTHWARD INTO
THE OUTLOOK AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE, COUPLED
WITH HIGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE VALUES, WILL HELP GENERATE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN
INDIANA. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD CONTAIN DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL. ABUNDANT MOISTURE ALSO SUGGESTS THE STORMS WOULD CONTAIN
TORRENTIAL RAIN. IN ADDITION...LIGHTNING IS A THREAT WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS INDICATED THERE IS A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
FOR MUCH OF OUR AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, IN ASSOCIATION WITH
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE REGION. THE POTENTIAL
STRENGTH OF THESE STORMS IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED THIS AFTERNOON.

STUREY