Damaging Wind in North Carolina, April 5, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1105 AM EST SAT APR 5 2003

WILL UPDATE ZFP TO RAISE POPS FOR CSTL PLAIN AND N COAST.

RADAR TRENDS INDICATE CONVECTIVE LINE DEVELOPMENT RDU-SOP PAST HALF
HOUR WHILE PCPN DIMINISHING GSO-CLT. LATEST MESO MODELS SUPPORT LINE
DOING N-S SPLIT THIS AFTN WITH LITTLE ACTIVITY FOR ERN NC BUT
DEVELOPING LINE WILL AFFECT COASTAL PLAINS AT LEAST. WILL RAISE POPS
TO 70% THERE AND 50% FOR N/C COAST GROUP. CONCUR WITH SPC MOVING
SLGT RISK AREA N WITH STRONGER DYNAMICS BUT WOULD NOT BE SUPRISED TO
SEE SMALL HAIL GIVEN LOW WBZ ON 12Z MHX SOUNDING. MAX TEMPS WILL
OCCUR EARLY THIS AFTN BUT LOOK ON TRACK.

MARINE: A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE AREAS AND FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL MAKE
FOR AN UNSETTLED MARINE PATTERN BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AND LASTING
THRU AT LEAST MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...SW P-GRAD
TIGHTENS UP INTO 20-25 KT RANGE AS COLD FRONT PRESENTLY DRAPED OVER
TENNESSEE VALLEY MAKES ITS WAY TOWARD THE COAST. SEAS ALONG SOUTHERN
LEG BUILD QUICKER AND A BIT HIGHER (6-7 FT) THAN NORTHERN WATERS
(4-5 FT) DUE TO LONGER SW FETCH. WAVES IN SOUNDS BUILD ACCORDINGLY
(2-3 FT). FPSN7 CURRENTLY SHOWING WINDS 210/20 KTS WITH 4 FT SEAS.
THE NEW AND IMPROVED DIAMOND SHOALS RED BUOY (41025) HAS WINDS
220/18 KTS WITH 4 FT SEAS. MHX VWP SHOWING FRISKY 30-35 KT SW FLOW
AT ONE-K FT. AS FRONT DRAWS CLOSER TO REGION...SOME MIXING-DOWN
EFFECT FROM ABOVE (NOT THE WHOLE SHABANG BY ANY MEANS) ALONG WITH
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE SHOULD REV UP STHLY FLOW HIGHER THAN PRESENT.
ETA SHOWS COLD FRONT MOVING OFF COAST AROUND 2 AM WHILE GFS A TAD
SLOWER WITH 8 AM (REMEMBER TO SPRING AHEAD WITH THE CLOCKS). BRISK
N TO NE SURGE (15-25 KTS) OCCURS AFTER FROPA. THIS KEEPS SCA STATE
OF MIND OVER THE CWF AREA CONTINUING SUNDAY. COLD FRONT COMES TO A
GRINDING HALT ALONG SC/GA BORDER SUNDAY AFTERNOON THEN LIFTS BACK
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BRINGING WITH IT A
HEALTHY STHLY FLOW. SEAS BUILD TO 7 FT FOR NORTHERN LEG...UP TO
9 FEET FOR SOUTHERN WATERS MONDAY. BRIEF LULL IN THE WIND/WAVE
ACTION TUESDAY...THEN MOST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OFF THE SE NC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. NE P-GRAD
SQUEEZE-PLAY WILL THEN BE ON AS 1031MB HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY AND AFORMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SCOOTS OUT WELL OUT
TO SEA. NOAA WAVE WATCH III DEPICTS DECENT NE WAVE ENERGY FETCH
SETTING UP WEDNESDAY AS WINDS HIT THE 25 KT MARK AND SEAS BUILD TO
8 FT ALONG BOTH LEGS. NO DOUBT SEAS WILL CLIMB A BIT HIGHER INTO
THURSDAY IF ALL GOES ACCORDING TO THE MODEL PLAN.

.MHX...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL WATERS.

JBM/GC

NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103-104-051200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
915 AM EST SAT APR 5 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING MAY CONTAIN
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS...BUT NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

JBM

NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103-051530-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK...CANCELED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
902 AM EST SAT APR 5 2003

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DISCONTINUED...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SMALL HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH A FEW
STORMS ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH...BUT CONDITIONS ARE NOW
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE THRESHOLDS.

STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER STATEMENTS.

JBM

NCZ029-044-079-051845-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1250 PM EST SAT APR 5 2003

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PITT...MARTIN AND GREENE COUNTIES
UNTIL 145 PM EST...

AT 1250 PM EST...THERE WERE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 18 MILES
NORTHWEST OF WILLIAMSTON TO 16 MILES WEST OF SNOW HILL...OR FROM 12
MILES EAST OF SCOTLAND NECK TO GOLDSBORO...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. THE
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR SNOW HILL AT 125 PM EST...
WILLIAMSTON AT 145 PM EST. OTHER LOCATIONS TO BE AFFECTED BY THE
STORMS INCLUDE GREENVILLE.

WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS. MOST
LIGHTNING FATALITIES AND INJURIES OCCUR IN OPEN AREAS OR UNDER TREES.
IF OUTDOORS...SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY BUILDING OR CAR. DO NOT TAKE
SHELTER IN SMALL SHEDS...UNDER ISOLATED TREES...OR IN CONVERTIBLE
AUTOMOBILES. THIS LINE OF STORMS PRODUCED A WIND GUST TO 46 MPH AT
ROCKY MOUNT WILSON AIRPORT SHORTLY AFTER 12 NOON.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
FURTHER UPDATES ON THE WEATHER SITUATION ACROSS THE AREA.

JBM

NCZ045>047-080-081-092>094-103-052015-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
154 PM EST SAT APR 5 2003

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT WASHINGTON...MAINLAND HYDE...
CRAVEN...JONES...PAMLICO...BEAUFORT...MAINLAND DARE...OUTER BANKS
DARE AND TYRRELL COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM EST...

AT 154 PM EST...THERE WERE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12 MILES
NORTHWEST OF MANNS HARBOR TO 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF TRENTON...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH. THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR BAYBORO AT
200 PM EST...MANNS HARBOR AT 220 PM EST...ORIENTAL AT 225 PM EST...
ENGELHARD AT 230 PM EST. OTHER LOCATIONS TO BE AFFECTED BY THE STORMS
INCLUDE BELHAVEN...COLUMBIA...KILL DEVIL HILLS...MANTEO...NAGS
HEAD...NEW BERN AND SWANQUARTER.

WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
FURTHER UPDATES ON THE WEATHER SITUATION ACROSS THE AREA.

NP