Hail and Damaging Winds in Oklahoma, April 5 to 6, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
940 PM CST SAT APR 5 2003

SEVERE CONVECTION ONGOING...PRIMARILY WITH HP SUPERCELL OVER WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS COUNTIES. VERY LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY WEATHER THREAT
FROM THIS STORM. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED STRONG STORMS CONTINUE OVER A
LARGER PORTION OF THE FORECAST...AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE WELL INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS MID/UPPER SUPPORT INCREASE WITH APPROACHING
S/WV TROUGH.

AS FAR AS ZONE FORECAST GOES...ALREADY SENT AN UPDATE TO HANDLE
CURRENT CONVECTIVE SCENARIO...AND WILL ISSUE ANOTHER IN THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO AS THINGS EVOLVE. HIGHEST POPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER
THE EASTERN 1/2 OF THE FORECAST AREA. RAIN ACTIVITY WILL CLEAR FROM
THE WEST OVERNIGHT AS DRY SLOT MOVES IN. ANOTHER /ROUND/ OF
CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG DRY LINE EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. WILL LIKELY DROP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURE
MINIMA ACROSS THE NORTH AS CURRENT FORECAST LOWS ALMOST MET.

FCSTID= 11

OKC   49  66  38  54 /  +   40   0   0
HBR   47  63  36  53 /  60  10   0   0
SPS   55  72  41  60 /  60  10   0   0
GAG   41  52  29  49 /  40  30   0   0
PNC   42  58  35  51 /  +   40   0   0
DUA   58  75  47  62 /  +   60   0   0

----------------------------

200 PM CST SAT APR 5 2003

THE ANTICIPATED STRONG LIFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST U.S. UPPER WAVE WILL
BRING STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. REFER TO THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR DETAILS.

SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD END AS THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL OK SUNDAY MORNING. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD
ENTER THE NORTHWEST BY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR
CENTRAL OK BY LATE AFTERNOON AND THE SOUTHEAST LATE SUNDAY EVENING.
WITH SEASONABLY COOL AIR TO OUR NORTH...TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL BE
BELOW NORMAL. A SECOND AND COOLER AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH
FROM KS MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES STILL TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD IN THE 50S DURING
THE DAY WITH NEAR OR SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHWEST HALF
EACH NIGHT AS THE AIRMASS SETTLES OVER OK. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED WITH THE ASSOCIATED UPPER WAVE.

BY MID-WEEK...AN UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS AND APPROACH THE PLAINS STATES LATER IN THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD INCREASE TO SEASONABLE NORMALS FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK...AND THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY INTO THE WEEKEND.

FCSTID =    9

.OUN...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-061800-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1145 AM CST SAT APR 5 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF
OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA AND ALL OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT OVER THE
REMAINDER OF OKLAHOMA.

LOCATION...
THE MODERATE RISK AREA IS ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
HOLLIS... TO CORDELL... TO OKLAHOMA CITY... TO CHANDLER. THE SLIGHT
RISK AREA INCLUDES THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.

TIMING...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING BETWEEN 7
PM AND 11 PM...AND SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT.

EXPECTED WEATHER AND IMPACTS...
THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
BASEBALL SIZED HAIL. VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE CAPABLE OF SIGNIFICANT
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AUTOMOBILES...AND VEGETATION.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL SHOULD BE
PREPARED FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL TEXAS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTHWARD LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING TO JUST SOUTH OF THE RED
RIVER...LIKELY BETWEEN WICHITA FALLS...AND MINERAL WELLS.
MEANWHILE...A DRYLINE WILL DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...WITH THE TRIPLE POINT BETWEEN
LUBBOCK...MIDLAND...AND ABILINE.

AS THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE...AND THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
NEAR THIS TRIPLE POINT AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD...WITH INITIAL
DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLY BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. STORM
MOTION WILL BE NORTHEASTWARD...WHICH COULD ALLOW A FEW OF THESE
STORMS TO MOVE INTO WESTERN PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING...
INCLUDING KNOX CITY...MUNDAY...BENJAMIN...CROWELL...SEYMOUR...AND
ARCHER CITY. VERTICAL WIND PROFILES WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS...WITH A THREAT FOR TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL.

ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF RISK AREAS...THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. THE
MAJORITY OF THESE STORMS WILL OCCUR NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONTAL
ZONE...WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY CONCERN. THE MODERATE RISK FOR
PARTS OF THESE AREAS IS FOR THE WIDESPREAD POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CST SUNDAY APR 6.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...100 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY OVER PARTS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.  A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BE
SEVERE.  HOWEVER... BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON SUNDAY... THE PRIMARY
AREA FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES MAY DROP BELOW FREEZING OVER NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA ON MONDAY MORNING... WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF FREEZING
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY MORNING OVER ROUGHLY THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF
OKLAHOMA.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
SUNDAY.

A GRAPHICAL OUTLOOK CAN BE FOUND ON THE WEB AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/OUN.

JAMES

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
833 PM CST SAT APR 05 2003

TIME (CST) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0830 PM    DUNDEE                    TX   1.00 INCH HAIL
04/05/03   ARCHER                         REPORTED BY THE PUBLIC

0832 PM    5 E DUNDEE                TX   1.00 INCH HAIL
04/05/03   ARCHER                         REPORTED BY A HAM RADIO
                                          OPERATOR

SBS

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
841 PM CST SAT APR 05 2003

TIME (CST) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0808 PM    8 S LAKE KEMP             TX   1.00 INCH HAIL
04/05/03   BAYLOR                         REPORTED BY A SPOTTER

SBS

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
853 PM CST SAT APR 05 2003

TIME (CST) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0836 PM    5 NW ARCHER CITY          TX   1.75 INCH HAIL
04/05/03   ARCHER                         REPORTED BY A SPOTTER

0846 PM    5 W ARCHER CITY           TX   1.75 INCH HAIL
04/05/03   ARCHER                         REPORTED BY A SPOTTER

0848 PM    6 N ARCHER CITY           TX   1.00 INCH HAIL
04/05/03   ARCHER                         REPORTED BY A SPOTTER

0851 PM    4 N ARCHER CITY           TX   2.00 INCH HAIL
04/05/03   ARCHER                         REPORTED BY A SPOTTER

SBS

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
904 PM CST SAT APR 05 2003

TIME (CST) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0901 PM    CHARLIE                   TX   .75 INCH HAIL
04/05/03   CLAY                           REPORTED BY A SPOTTER

0902 PM    2 S CHARLIE               TX   .75 INCH HAIL
04/05/03   CLAY                           REPORTED BY A SPOTTER

SBS

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
922 PM CST SAT APR 05 2003

TIME (CST) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0850 PM    1 N ARCHER CITY           TX   1.25 INCH HAIL
04/05/03   ARCHER                         REPORTED BY A SPOTTER

0856 PM    ARCHER CITY               TX   1.00 INCH HAIL
04/05/03   ARCHER                         REPORTED BY A SPOTTER

0902 PM    2 S JOLLY                 TX   .75 INCH HAIL
04/05/03   CLAY                           REPORTED BY A SPOTTER

0907 PM    LAKE ARROWHEAD            TX   .75 INCH HAIL
04/05/03   CLAY                           REPORTED BY A SPOTTER

0909 PM    5 S JOLLY                 TX   .75 INCH HAIL
04/05/03   CLAY                           REPORTED BY A SPOTTER

0910 PM    2 S SCOTLAND              TX   1.75 INCH HAIL
04/05/03   ARCHER                         REPORTED BY A SPOTTER

0920 PM    4 S HENRIETTA             TX   .75 INCH HAIL
04/05/03   CLAY                           REPORTED BY A SPOTTER

SBS

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
930 PM CST SAT APR 05 2003

TIME (CST) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0923 PM    8 S HENRIETTA             TX   1.75 INCH HAIL
04/05/03   CLAY                           REPORTED BY A SPOTTER

SBS