Tornado and Hail in Texas, April 5 to 6, 2003

SOUTH PLAINS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
250 AM CST SAT 05 APR 2003

DAY ONE...
STRONG SHORT WAVE OVER THE GREAT BASIN THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EAST
AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE SHOWS UP FAIRLY
WELL ON LATEST IR/WV SATELLITE IMAGERY. MID LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS
EVENING...WITH SUBTROPICAL JET APPROACHING THE FA FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALSO DRAPED ACROSS THE FA AND WITH APPROACHING
JETS...TO CREATE STRONG LIFT ACROSS THE FA THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. APPEARS TRIPLE POINT TO BE JUST TO THE EAST OF LUBBOCK WITH
BEST THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS OVER THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS. COULD SEE
A FEW HIGH BASED STORMS AS FAR WEST AS LUBBOCK AND WILL WORD
FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LACKING ATTM...HOWEVER
LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING
SLOWLY NORTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING. DEW POINTS HAVE CLIMBED INTO
THE MID 60S AT HONDO AND 60 AT DEL RIO. EXPECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
RETURN TO LOW ROLLING PLAINS RAPIDLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW/LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES.

EXPECT STORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS DRYLINE SHARPENS IN
RESPONSE TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN. STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
DRYLINE TO ALSO INCREASE AS LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND  WITH APPROACHING MID LEVEL JET. SEE SPC SWODY1 FOR
FURTHER DETAILS. EXPECT STORMS TO LAST UNTIL LATE EVENING BEFORE
DYING OUT WITH OVERNIGHT HOURS TO BE PARTLY CLOUDY. XI

DAY 2 THROUGH 7...
APPEARS THAT WE WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH SOME WIND SUNDAY IN THE WAKE
OF THE STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL AFFECT THE AREA TODAY. COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO WORK INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES DIPPING BACK INTO THE 60S. IT APPEARS THAT I MAY HAVE
BEEN TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH RAIN CHANCES ON TUESDAY. MODELS ARE COMING
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT NOW WITH ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MOVING TOWARDS
WEST TEXAS IN THE NORTHWESTERLY MIDDLE LEVEL FLOW. POSITIVE TILT
TROUGHS DONT TEND TO GIVE US SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND MODEL MOISTURE
LEVELS ARE NOT LOOKING AS GOOD IN THE LATEST MODEL RUNS. WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT FOR NOW AND SEE IF THE NEXT COUPLE MODEL RUNS
CONTINUE THE TREND OF MOVING THIS SYSTEM THROUGH FASTER AND DRIER.
UPPER RIDGE SHOULD PROGGED TO MOVE INTO WEST TEXAS AROUND MID WEEK
WITH A RETURN TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BEYOND
WEDNESDAY.

FCSTID = MM

FRIONA      73 38 66 34 / 00 00 00 00
TULIA       69 39 70 35 / 20 00 00 00
LUBBOCK     76 43 72 37 / 20 00 00 00
BROWNFIELD  79 44 72 40 / 10 00 00 00
CHILDRESS   67 44 73 39 / 30 30 00 00
ASPERMONT   78 46 77 46 / 30 30 00 00

.LUB...NONE.

TXZ021>044-060600-
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1124 AM CST SAT APR 5 2003

.CORRECTED MISSING HEADER CODES.

THIS IS A HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...

CONVECTIVE

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS...EAST OF
A LINE FROM CHILDRESS TO ASPERMONT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING EAST OF A LINE FROM TULIA TO LUBBOCK TO ODONNELL.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST IS
EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A VERY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO PRODUCE SCATTERED VERY STRONG OR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST LIKELY TO DEVELOP AFTER 300 PM
THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST INDICATIONS SHOW THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS
MOVED SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED AND THE SLIGHT
RISK AREA HAS ALSO BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY FURTHER TO THE WEST.

THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING MAY PRODUCE LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. A FEW TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...MAINLY
EAST OF THE CAPROCK.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY AND TONIGHT.