Hail in Georgia, April 5 to 6, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
303 PM EST SAT APR 5 2003

.OVERVIEW...UPPER RIDGE IN EASTERN ATLANTIC WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN
NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS RIDGE IS WHAT BROUGHT US THE MILD TO WARM AND
DRY WEATHER FOR THIS PAST WEEK. AS THIS RIDGE BREAKS
DOWN...SOUTHEAST U.S. RIDGE AND WESTERN U.S. TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE EAST. WHAT THIS MEANS FOR US IS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON THE
SOUTHEAST THIS COMING WEEK...WITH COOLER TEMPS AND ABOVE NORMAL
RAINFALL.

.SHORT TERM...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGES
INDICATE THAT THE SURFACE FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS NORTH GA NOW AND
WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE SOUTH LATER TONIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING IN MIDDLE GA AHEAD OF BOUNDARY WHERE SOME
INSTABILITY REMAINS. WILL WORD FORECAST AND ISOLATED SHWRS/TRWS IN
MIDDLE GA. FOR NORTH GEORGIA...EXPECT MAINLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
DRY CONDITIONS.

DISTURBANCE OVER LA/MS WILL RACE EAST ACROSS AL INTO MIDDLE GA
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SKIES TO TURN MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER THE NORTH LATE
TONIGHT AND POPS WILL RISE FROM 20 TO 50 PERCENT IN MIDDLE GA.

MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL COME OUT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. LOOKING AT
ENSEMBLE SPREADS...MODELS ARE HAVING PROBLEMS WITH TRANSITION
SEASON. GFS/NGM/REGIONAL GEM SEEM TO FOCUS TOO MUCH ON SMALL
MESOSCALE SYSTEM CURRENTLY IN LA/MS. PREFER THE MORE CONSISTENT
SOLUTION OF THE ETA/UKMET/GLOBAL GEM. THIS BLENDS BETTER WITH
PREVIOUS FORECAST. WHAT THIS MEANS IS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS CWA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. BEST PE VALUES AND LOW LEVEL JET
FOCUS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING ALONG AND NORTH OF ABOUT
I-20. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN NORTH GA IN THIS TIME FRAME.
THERE MAY EVEN BE SOME ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER IN WESTERN GA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS CAPES RISE TO 1000 TO 2000 J/KG AND THE
CONVECTIVE STORM COMPOSITE RISES TO 0.8 TO 1.0. WITH PE VALUES ABOVE
1.4 INCHES...WILL ISSUE AN ESF...FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...FOR NORTH
GA FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY.

TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY NEXT SEVERAL DAYS DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND SOME
WEDGING INTO NE GA FROM BIG COLD SURFACE HIGH FROM THE NORTH. WILL
THROW OUT GFS SURFACE TEMPS AS THEY HAVE TEMPS IN 50 TO 55 RANGE SUN
ACROSS ATL/AHN. INSTEAD WILL USE 850 MB LOCAL TECHNIQUES TO DERIVE
MAXES/MINS. BY DOING THIS...ETA/GFS/NGM INDICATE NEARLY THE SAME
MAXES/MINS...INSTEAD OF SPREADS AT TIMES OF 20 DEGREES.

.EXTENDED...ANOTHER WAVE WILL RIDE UP IN SOUTHWEST FLOW TUE WITH YET
ANOTHER LATER WED. HOWEVER...MAIN FOCUS OF RAIN WILL BE IN MIDDLE GA
AND POINTS SOUTH WITH THESE EVENTS. WILL TRIM TEMPS THRU THU BASED
ON COLD UPPER LEVELS AND CLOUD COVER. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO
IMPROVE THU WITH LOTS OF SUN FORECAST FRI/SAT AS TEMPS MODERATE TO
BACK TO NORMAL AFTER A CHILLY MID WEEK.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

KATL 55 66 56 71 / 10 60 70 60
KAHN 53 63 55 71 / 10 50 70 60
KGVL 53 61 53 67 / 10 50 70 60
KRMG 53 69 56 74 / 10 70 90 60
KCSG 61 75 61 78 / 50 50 50 50
KMCN 59 72 59 77 / 50 50 50 50

.ATL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.

 NOEL

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-052200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1110 AM EST SAT APR 5 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...MAINLY
SOUTH OF AN ATLANTA TO ATHENS LINE.

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER NORTH GEORGIA...WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA
TONIGHT. MOIST SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL ALLOW AN
INCREASE IN INSTABILITY.

.PRIMARY HAZARD...
THE PRIMARY HAZARD FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIGHTNING.

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...GENERALLY SOUTH OF AN ATLANTA TO ATHENS LINE. CAPES SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW ONE THOUSAND...AND LIFTED INDEX VALUES SHOULD RANGE
FROM MINUS ONE TO MINUS TWO. AS A RESULT...THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

.FOR SPOTTERS...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAY TWO THROUGH DAY SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A
FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO MONDAY MORNING...MAINLY OVER WESTERN GEORGIA. OTHERWISE...NO
HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED.

FOR THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND OTHER WEATHER
INFORMATION...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV...AND CLICK ON
GEORGIA.

GAZ078-089-052345-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
615 PM EST SAT APR 5 2003

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR SMALL HAIL...INTENSE LIGHTNING...
AND HEAVY RAIN IN NORTHWEST MUSCOGEE AND SOUTHWEST HARRIS COUNTIES
UNTIL 645 PM EST...

AT 615 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE GEORGIA...ALABAMA BORDER SOUTHWEST OF
HAMILTON...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERTS ARE ISSUED WHEN WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH 40 TO 50 MPH...HAIL IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN THE SIZE OF
DIMES...OR SIGNIFICANT CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED.