Flash Flood in New York, June 13 to 14, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1025 PM EDT FRI JUN 13 2003

UPDATE TO UP POPS AND QPF FOR UPPER SUSQUEHANNA REGION. FFW OUT NOW
FOR BROOME. 1 HOUR PRECIP EXCEEDED 2 INCHES. THIS BATCH OF RW+ WILL
BE OUT OF THE COUNTY BY MIDNIGHT BUT SFC TROF STILL JUST W SO MORE
MAY DEVELOP TIL 3 OR 4 AM. PRECIP WILL SPREAD SE INTO SE CWA SO LEFT
RW AS LIKELY THERE. LOWERED MIN TEMPS AS TEMPS ALREADY AT LOWS AND
NEAR DEWPTS. FOG PUT IN FOR REST OF NIGHT WITH VALLEY FOG ALREADY.
TAC

PREVIOUS AFD...
WEAK SFC LOW OVER LK ONTARIO AND WARM FRONT THROUGH CNY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SOUPY AIR LOCKED IN. VERY LITTLE UPPER SUPPORT FOR
LIFT...ASIDE FROM THERMAL AND MOISTURE ADVECTIONS. BETTER SUPPORT
ASSOC WITH UPPER LOW OVER MIDWEST WHICH OPENS UP SOME TONIGHT AND
GETS ABSORBED INTO BROADER UPPER TROF DIGGING OVER SRN CAN AND THE
NORTHEAST. WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE LIFTING SLOLY NE...WHILE WEAK
COLD FRONT NOW JUST WEST OF WRN NY/PA DRIFTS INTO THE AREA BY SAT
AFTN. GFS HANDLING CURRENT PRECIP GENERATION OVER WV/VA AND MIDWEST
BETTER THAN ETA. EXPECT ONLY SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT OVER MOST OF CNY
MAINLY THIS EVENING AS FEATURES SLIDE THRU.HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE
FINGER LAKES AND MHWK VALLEY WHERE PRECIP ONGOING...AND THIS AREA
CLOSEST TO SFC LOW. GFS ALSO HAS AN ENHANCED AREA OF LIFT FOCUSING
OVER NE PA BY 06Z WHICH LOOKS A LITTLE CONVECTIVELY FED BACK...YET
MAY BE AN INDICATION OF FEATURE MOVING UP FROM WV PLUS ENHANCED
CONVG ALONG BNDRYS AND WK SECONDARY SFC CIRCULATION. DURING THE MID
EVENING HOURS THRU MIDNITE...WILL INDICATE A SECONDARY MAX POP OVER
NE PA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS THINKING.

NVA AND WK SUBSIDENCE/NEG THETA-E ADVN DVLPS AFTER MIDNIGHT TO HELP
DIMINISH PRECIP...YET STILL ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO WARRANT CHC FOR
BRIEF SHOWERS INTO SAT MORNING UNDER CYCL FLOW ALOFT AND MOIST
AIRMASS. HIGH DEWPOINT AIR WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER FOGGY NIGHT IN SOME
AREAS AND WILL INTRODUCE THAT TO THE FCST AS WELL.

WEAK COLD FRONT CONTINUES THRU THE AREA ON SAT WITH TAIL END OF
UPPER TROF DIGGING OVER NEW ENGLAND AND ERN CAN CLIPPING THE AREA.
SOME DRYING ALOFT...BUT HIGH SFC DEWPOINTS AND MORE BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE THAN PREV DAYS WARRANTS CONTINUATION OF DIURNAL SCT
SHRA/TSRA WITH CAPE FCSTS 500-800 J/KG. ALL OF THIS PRECIP COMES TO
AN END AS FRONT SAGS WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION AND DRIER HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN ON SUNDAY.

WILL GO SVRL DEGREES ABOVE ALL MOS GUIDANCE TONIGHT AS DEWPOINTS
SHOULD ONLY TRIM OFF BY A DEGREE OR SO...IF THAT. REMAINDER OF FCST
TEMPS LOOK GOOD AND ONLY SUBTLE TWEEKS MADE.

XTNDD PD...FEATURES AN UNUSUAL DRY SPELL AS THE AREA ENDS UP WEST OF
THE TROF AXIS UNDER BLDG HGTS. THIS WILL RESULT IN NEAR NRML TEMPS
WITH NO PCPN UNTIL LATE THU INTO EARLY FRI WHEN A COLD FNT AND SCT
SHWRS MVE THRU THE AREA. PER THE ISC GRIDS HAVE ADDED A CHANCE OF
AFTN TRW WITH THE SHWRS. ATTM...NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS DRY UNDER A WEAK
SFC HI AND NW FLOW PTRN.

.BGM...NONE.

DAYS 1-2...BREWSTER
DAYS 3-7...MORFORD

NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043-
044-047-048-072-131100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
425 AM EDT FRI JUN 13 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BECOME HEAVIER AND MORE WIDESPREAD THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN
IS NOT EXPECTED...HOWEVER LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD CAUSE
MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND BRING SIGNIFICANT WITHIN
BANKFULL RISES ON AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY OR TONIGHT.  HOWEVER,
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO RELAY REPORTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON.

MSE