High Wind in Montana, November 28, 2003

SOUTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
335 AM MST FRI NOV 28 2003

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
EAST JUST NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER TODAY AND TONIGHT...INCREASING
THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER MONTANA...AS WELL AS BRINGING
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE TO THE AREA. STRONG OROGRAPHIC LIFT OVER THE
ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT WILL CAUSE SNOW TO DEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON AS
WESTERLY WINDS INCREASE. THE MOISTURE...LIFT...AND STRONG WINDS
WILL SPREAD SOUTH OVER THE MOUNTAIN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
6 TO 14 INCH RANGE FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE IN
THE 40 TO 60 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS OF 80 TO 100 MPH POSSIBLE NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS AS WELL...CAUSING NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES.
THEREFORE...A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH A WINTER STORM WARNING STARTING LATER THIS AFTERNOON
FOR AREAS ABOVE 5500 FEET ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST MONTANA. BELOW
5500 FEET IN THE SOUTHWEST...LESSER AMOUNTS OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON...FOR A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING THERE. THE
AFOREMENTIONED STRONG WINDS WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE ALONG THE
PLAINS AS WELL THROUGHOUT THIS MORNING...WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS UP
TO 80 MPH EXPECTED IN EASTERN GLACIER COUNTY...AND 60 TO 70 MPH GUSTS
ELSEWHERE ALONG THE PLAINS. THEREFORE...A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN
EFFECT FOR NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA TODAY THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
THESE STRONG WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL KEEP THE PLAINS DRY. THE
SHORTWAVE WILL PASS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH A
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN MONTANA...ALLOWING WINDS AND
SNOW TO DECREASE SOMEWHAT AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE
TO DRY ON SATURDAY...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS REMAINING
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE QUICKLY TO THE
NORTH OF MONTANA IN A MORE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DURING THE DAY
ON SATURDAY...BRINGING WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA ONCE AGAIN.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES TODAY...BUT WILL COOL TO
LEVELS CLOSER TO NORMAL ON SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.
WINDS WILL DECREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE DISTURBANCE EXITS THE
AREA...AS SKIES REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY.  COULSTON

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST COAST WITH
STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CWA. AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE CWA A SURFACE HIGH DEVELOPS AND SURFACE WINDS
CONTINUE TO DECREASE. BY SUNDAY NIGHT A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OFF THE
COAST OF CA MOVES EAST AND MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM.
SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOULD DEVELOP MONDAY MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN
ZONES. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE BACK INTO PLACE
BY TUESDAY AND THE AIRMASS REMAINS DRY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WEDNESDAY THE UPPER AIR RIDGE MOVES OVER
EASTERN MONTANA BRINGING MOST OF THE STATE UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. A TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES, WITH THE
SURFACE HIGH OVER SOUTHWEST WYOMING. THE MOIST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS. THE DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL KEEP THE PLAINS DRY AND WINDY. A
CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
PART OF THE STATE BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE FAST MOVING SYSTEM WILL
MOVE EAST OUT OF THE STATE BY THURSDAY EVENING. THE UPPER AIR FLOW
REMAINS FROM THE WEST SOUTHWEST AND MOIST THROUGH FRIDAY, KEEPING
THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND THE MOUNTAINS OF THE SOUTHWEST CLOUDY
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. PREWITT

.CCF NUMBERS
GTF NN 052/032 042/021 040 10000
    BEBNB 024/043 023/047 022/037 019/036 022 00000000000
CTB NN 050/028 041/018 039 100-0
    BBNNB 019/038 022/047 018/036 015/035 019 00000000000
HLN NB 043/031 044/022 038 10151
    BEBNB 019/039 022/045 021/038 019/035 023 00-00001201
BZN EB 042/028 047/022 038 10033
    BEBNB 020/042 022/045 022/038 013/033 017 00-00012200
WEY ES 028/020 036/016 032 10256
    BEBEB 013/033 021/038 018/030 009/032 019 20110033300
DLN ES 043/029 045/022 037 10386
    BEENB 019/038 022/042 023/038 015/033 019 00---033211
HVR NN 045/023 042/016 039 10000
    BBBNB 016/040 017/044 018/043 017/036 019 00000000000
LWT NN 046/031 044/022 040 10000
    BEBBB 020/044 022/047 022/038 016/035 021 00000000000

.TFX...HIGH WIND WARNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA (ZONES 9-14 AND
       44-51) TODAY THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
    ...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT (ZONES
       9 AND 48) THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
    ...WINTER STORM WARNING ABOVE 5500 FEET FOR PORTIONS OF
       SOUTHWEST MONTANA (ZONES 8, 14-15 AND 52) LATE THIS AFTERNOON
       THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
    ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY BELOW 5500 FEET FOR SNOW AND BLOWING
       SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MONTANA (ZONES 8, 14-15 AND 52)
       LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

MTZ008>015-044>055-281200-
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
530 PM MST THU NOV 27 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
MONTANA

.DAY ONE...TODAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING
FOR THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT...AND ALL OF NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA.
ADDITIONALLY...THE MOUNTAIN PASSES IN SOUTHERN AND LEWIS AND CLARK
COUNTY ARE ALSO INCLUDED. EXPECT WEST WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH. ISOLATED GUSTS NEAR 80 MPH ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
PLAINS. ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP TO
100 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. PLEASE REFER TO GTFNPWTFX FOR FURTHER
INFORMATION.

A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT. EXPECT AREAS
OF SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT ON
FRIDAY...POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES. ADDITIONALLY...WITH VERY STRONG
WINDS...NEAR WHITE OUT CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. PLEASE REFER TO
GTFWSWTFX FOR FURTHER INFORMATION

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.