Hail in Montana, June 15, 2003

NORTHEAST MONTANA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
250 PM MDT SUN JUN 15 2003

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MAIN FORECAST FOCUS ON POPS AND POSSIBLE STRONGER STORMS IN THE
SOUTHEAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST FLOW REMAINS ALOFT TODAY
WITH SURFACE LOW ANALYZED OVER SOUTHEASTERN MT. INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING UP FROM LOW SITTING OVER SOUTHEAST ZONES. AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER JET CONTINUES OVER NORTHERN
ZONES. JET FORECASTED TO SLIP TO THE SOUTHEAST WHERE BEST
INSTABILITY ALSO FORECASTED. NEW MESOETA PUSHES GREATEST INSTABILITY
OUT OF THE AREA FASTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT WILL STILL GO
AHEAD AND MENTION A POSSIBLE SEVERE STORM IN DAWSON...PRAIRIE...AND
WIBAUX COUNTIES THROUGH THIS EVENING WHERE TROUGH AXIS MORE LIKELY
TO PROVIDE CONVECTIVE FOCUS. AM STILL CONCERNED THAT GREATEST LIFT
IS SOUTH OF THE CWA...BUT JET SEEMS TO BE WINNING SIMILAR BATTLE TO
THE NORTH. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT ACTIVITY TO DECREASE FROM THE
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BY BY MONDAY MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH NUDGES
IN AND FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY. MODELS INDICATE SOME
DESTABILIZATION AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT MAINLY IN THE WEST.
WILL LEAVE IN SOME 20 POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. BY TUESDAY...SURFACE
HIGH AND BUILDING UPPER RIDGE TAKE CONTROL WITH MORE QUIET
CONDITIONS SETTLING IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOWS
SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT WITH SLOWER DRYING AND CLOUDS
HANGING AROUND. STROOZAS

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY
STILL HANGING MY HOPES ON AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER EASTERN MONTANA
WEDNESDAY...PROVIDING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS. RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS WEST COAST TROF DIGS DEEPER INTO
CALIFORNIA. ALTHO WE RETURN TO SOUTHWEST FLOW THURSDAY SEEING AN
APPARENT DEARTH OF DYNAMICS...SO WILL REMAIN DRY. WEST COAST TROF
ENERGY SPLITS WITH NORTHERN BRANCH HEADED OUR WAY...WHICH BEGINS
SENDING WAVES OUR WAY THURSDAY NIGHT...WHILST A PACIFIC COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. HAVE THUS MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS THURSDAY NIGHT THRU
SATURDAY NIGHT FOR WAVES IN ADVANCE OF MAIN TROF...FRONTAL
PASSAGE... AND PASSAGE OF MAIN TROF. A RESPITE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT BETWEEN EXITING TROF AND NEXT ONE IN THE PARADE OF TROFS
DROPPING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY EJECTING SHORTWAVES OUR
WAY. TEMPERATURES SEASONAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...THEN A BIT OF COOLING IN WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR
SATURDAY. PERHAPS A REBOUND OF A FEW DEGREES FOR SUNDAY.  VALONE

KGGW BBB 058/084 054/084 056/085 96300000
     BTTE 058/083 058/081 053/077 053/078 7800333330
KGDV BBB 061/083 055/083 055/085 96400000
     BTTE 057/084 058/083 054/079 054/080 7800333330

.GGW...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH THROUGH 8 PM MDT FOR
PRAIRIE...WIBAUX...DAWSON...AND RICHLAND COUNTIES.

MTZ016>027-059>062-161200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
557 AM MDT SUN JUN 15 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA

.DAY ONE...
LOOK FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST
MONTANA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT A FEW OF
THESE STORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.