Lightning Strike in Florida, June 15, 2003

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
205 PM EDT SUN JUN 15 2003

CURRENTLY...SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN PART OF
FORECAST AREA WHERE DEEPEST MOISTURE IS LOCATED.  THESE WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD NORTHWESTWARD AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES WITH A FEW OTHER STORMS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG WEST
COAST SEA BREEZE FROM TAMPA NORTH.

SHORT TERM (TON-TUE)...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY CONTINUING THE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW.  DEEP MOISTURE WILL ALSO REMAIN IN PLACE AND
THIS WILL MEAN A CONTINUATION OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES WHERE
BEST CONVERGENCE OCCURS ALONG WEST COAST SEA BREEZE.  CURRENT
FORECAST POPS OF 50 TO 60 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND 20 TO
40 PERCENT IN THE EVENINGS STILL LOOK REASONABLE AND WILL LEAVE AS IS
THROUGH TUESDAY.  NO BIG CHANGES IN TEMPERATURE EITHER AND WILL
GENERALLY GO WITH PERSISTENCE.

EXTENDED (TUE NIGHT-SUN)...MODELS HAVE LATCHED ONTO THE IDEA OF A
WET PERIOD FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BUT TIMING FOR WHICH DAY
WILL BE THE GLOOMIEST REMAINS UNCERTAIN.  PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE
GFS/NOGAPS/CANADIAN SUGGESTED WEDNESDAY...BUT 12Z GFS IS HINTING AT
THURS AS TUTT FEATURE GETS PICKED UP AND EJECTED NE IN RESPONSE TO
WEAK 500 MB TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY...WHICH DROPS
HEIGHTS AND INCREASES W FLOW.

FOR NOW...HAVE RETAINED LIKELY/NUMEROUS AFTN PCPN WED AND HELD ONTO
THIS THROUGH WED NIGHT AND INTO THURS.  BY FRI...SOUPY SW FLOW BEHIND
SHEARING LOW MAY WELL KEEP PCPN AND CLOUDS GOING...BUT FOR NOW HAVE
GONE A TAD MORE OPTIMISTIC OWING TO CLIMATOLOGY AT DAY 5.  AS FOR
TEMPS...WHICHEVER DAY IS WETTEST WILL ONLY GIVE MAX TEMPS IN THE
M80S AT BEST...BUT FOR NOW HAVE TWEAKED VALUES ONLY 2-4 DEG BELOW
NORMAL THUR/FRI.  MUGGY CONDS WILL WAFT IN THURS...PERHAPS THROUGH
SAT...IN SW FLOW UNDER HIGH (577 DM) THICKNESS ATMOSPHERE.

MARINE...EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY THEN
BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AS TROPICAL WAVE/AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE
MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN GULF.  SPEEDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10
KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH MIDWEEK AND THEN INCREASE SOME AS WAVE/LOW
GOES BY TO THE WEST.

FIRE WEATHER...NO HIGHLIGHTS.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS:
BKV 071/091 071/090 4646
TPA 076/090 076/090 3636
GIF 074/092 074/091 2525
SRQ 074/089 074/089 3636
FMY 074/091 074/090 2626

.TBW...NONE.

PRC/BSG

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-151530-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
600 AM EDT SUN JUN 15 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY:
THE RAINY SEASON IS DEFINITELY UPON US WITH THE ATMOSPHERE
BECOMING TROPICALLY MOIST TO FUEL SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS OVER LAND
AREAS DURING AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...BUT WILL
OCCUR PRACTICALLY ANYTIME OVER THE GULF MARINE WATERS.

HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS WILL GENERATE GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF
35 MPH...DANGEROUS LIFE THREATENING LIGHTNING...AND TEMPORARY
DOWNPOURS WHICH MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS.

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY:
SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL PREVAIL
DAILY.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.