High Wind in Montana, July 11, 2003

SOUTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
900 PM MDT FRI JUL 11 2003

.DISCUSSION...NO UPDATES PLANNED. A COUPLE OF LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER
SW ZONES BUT SHOULD MOVE IN WY NEXT HOUR. NEW MESO-ETA INDICATES
NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH OVER FAR EASTERN ZONES OF CWA. LOWS FOR
TONIGHT MAY BE A FEW DEGREES TOO WARM BUT WILL NOT ADJUST. ANOTHER
MOSTLY CLEAR AND WARM NIGHT FOR CENTRAL MONTANA.

.TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AXIS OF RIDGE ALOFT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH WRN MT TONIGHT AND INTO CENTRAL MT ON SAT. RIDGE AXIS THEN
SHIFTS TO ERN BORDER OF MT BY 12Z SUN AS SW FLOW ALOFT INCREASES
OVER AREA. SW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES INTO SUN. AT THE SURFACE A COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SAT/SAT NIGHT. MODELS
DIFFER ON SHORTWAVE DETAILS DURING THE PERIOD BUT AGREE AIRMASS WILL
CONTINUE RELATIVELY DRY. AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO BE WEAKLY UNSTABLE
MAINLY OVER SRN AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WONT TAKE
MUCH OF A SHORTWAVE OR FRONT TO TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION IN
UNSTABLE AREAS SO HAVE MENTIONED SOME ISOLATED TSTMS FOR SRN AND ERN
ZONES. DOWNSLOPE BEHIND FRONT SHOULD KEEP NW PLAINS DRY DURING
PERIOD.

.MONDAY...ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS UPSTREAM OF MT WHICH SHOULD
LEAD TO A STABLE AIRMASS. GFS HAS SOME WEAK INSTABILITY NEAR FAR SW
MOUNTAINS AND ISOLATED CONVECTION NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. BUT WILL
CONTINUE WITH CURRENT DRY FORECAST. BLANK

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDS OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING UP INTO CENTRAL MONTANA.
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE. A FEW DRY THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS IN RESPONSE TO AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY EACH DAY, OTHERWISE NO ORGANIZED STORMS FORESEEN FOR
SOME TIME.

.CCF NUMBERS
GTF UB 056/094 059/088 052 04000
    BUUUU 084/051 085/054 086/054 084/051 084 00000000000
CTB UB 054/091 058/083 050 04000
    BUUUU 078/050 081/053 081/053 078/049 080 00000000000
HLN UB 059/096 061/088 054 04011
    BUUUU 085/053 088/057 089/057 086/053 086 00000000--0
BZN UU 050/094 052/090 048 04-22
    UUUUU 084/047 086/051 088/051 086/048 086 220000--110
WEY UU 040/087 041/084 042 04122
    UUUUU 078/045 080/042 080/049 080/047 080 22001111220
DLN UU 051/091 054/085 048 04111
    UUUUU 082/049 084/053 085/053 085/049 083 2200--11110
HVR UB 056/096 061/090 053 04001
    BUUUU 086/053 088/056 089/056 088/055 087 00000000000
LWT UB 053/090 056/086 051 04011
    BUUUU 080/049 082/053 082/053 081/051 081 22000000000

.TFX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH SUNDAY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 112 THROUGH
       118
       (GLACIER/PONDERA/TOOLE/LIBERTY/TETON/LEWIS AND CLARK/
       HILL/BLAINE/CASCADE/CHOUTEAU/JUDITH BASIN/FERGUS/MEAGHER/ERN
       JEFFERSON/MEAGHER/BROADWATER/NORTHERN GALLATIN/TETON
       COUNTIES).

MTZ008>015-044>055-121210-
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1158 AM MDT FRI JUL 11 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
MONTANA

.DAY ONE...TODAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL FIRE DISTRICTS ON
SUNDAY. WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH DURING THE
AFTERNOON. ONCE AGAIN...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW
20%. ALSO...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

PLEASE REFER TO GTFRFWTFX FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON ALL FIRE WEATHER
WATCHES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.