Hail and Damaging Winds in North Carolina, July 11, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
140 PM EDT FRI JUL 11 2003

VORT MAX OVER NORTHERN GEORGIA WILL LIFT NE INTO THE SOUTHERN CWFA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS HIGH AND SHOULD SEE PRETTY GOOD
COVERAGE. WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH...TAPERING OFF IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN CWFA AROUND 00Z...AND IN THE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS
MIDNIGHT. LOWS 65 TO 70.

SHOULD BE DRY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH WINDS QUICKLY
RECOVER TO SOUTHWEST INITIATING SFC TROFFING LATER IN THE DAY.
AIRMASS MODIFICATION WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE UPPER TROF SETS IN
FOR THE LONG HAUL. CONSENSUS SHORT WAVE ENERGY DIGS INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND ONGOING CHANCE POPS LOOK GOOD.

INCREASED COLUMN MOISTURE SUNDAY SUGGESTS MORE CONVECTION AND WILL
INCREASE TO HIGH CHANCE OF MAINLY DIURNAL TSRA. DO NOT THINK THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH CLOUDINESS/RAIN INITAILLY SUNDAY TO HOLD THE MAX
TEMPS IN THE MAV-SUGGESTED UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S...AND WILL GO WITH
MID AND UPPER 80S PER THICKNESS VALUES WITH MORE SUN.

MONDAY ONWARD...

THREAT OF DIURNAL CONVECTION ESPECIALLY MONDAY - TUESDAY WITH
FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE AREA. THE THREAT SEEMS SOMEWHAT LESS ON
WEDNESDAY BUT WITH A MID LEVEL TROUGH JUST NORTH OF THE AREA - A
CHANCE STILL IS IN THE FORECAST. FRONTAL SYSTEM FORECAST TO BACK
UP ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY PROVIDING THE LIFT ALONG
WITH DIURNAL HEATING TO PROVIDE A CHANCE OF THUNDER. LARGE SCALE MID
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD BE SLOW MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS. THEREFORE A SLIGHTLY GREATER CHANCE OF DAILY POPS SHOULD
PERSIST WITH THE LIFT OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND MID TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IN THE AREA.

.RAH...NONE.

MLM

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-121000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
600 AM EDT FRI JUL 11 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...AND INTENSE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING OVER
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING
WINDS IN THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
SATURDAY EVENING OR SATURDAY NIGHT.  OTHERWISE...OUTSIDE OF
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER
IS EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER NETWORK ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED IN THE TRIAD AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND FURTHER EAST INTO THE TRIANGLE AND FAYETTEVILLE
AREAS BY THIS EVENING.

RFG

NCZ023-024-039-040-112130-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
453 PM EDT FRI JUL 11 2003

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS ALAMANCE...ORANGE...RANDOLPH
AND NORTHWEST CHATHAM COUNTIES THROUGH 530 PM EDT...

AT 453 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM SWEPSONVILLE TO ASHEBORO...OR ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM GRAHAM TO ASHEBORO...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...SAXAPAHAW...SNOW
CAMP...SILER CITY...AND CHAPEL HILL.

GUSTY WINDS OF 40 MPH...VERY HEAVY RAIN AND DANGEROUS
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY AWAY FROM THE WINDOWS. DO NOT USE THE
TELEPHONE UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU CANNOT SEEK SHELTER
INDOORS AUTOMOBILES CAN PROVIDE ADEQUATE SHELTER.

JO

NCZ008-009-112145-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
508 PM EDT FRI JUL 11 2003

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS GRANVILLE AND VANCE COUNTIES
THROUGH 545 PM EDT...

AT 508 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM OAK HILL TO BUTNER...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...CREEDMOOR...
OXFORD...AND HENDERSON.

GUSTY WINDS UP OF 40 TO 50 MPH...VERY HEAVY RAIN AND DANGEROUS
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY AWAY FROM THE WINDOWS. DO NOT USE THE
TELEPHONE UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU CANNOT SEEK SHELTER
INDOORS AUTOMOBILES CAN PROVIDE ADEQUATE SHELTER.

JO

NCZ024-025-040-112200-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
526 PM EDT FRI JUL 11 2003

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS ORANGE...DURHAM AND CHATHAM
COUNTIES THROUGH 600 PM EDT...

AT 526 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM HILLSBOROUGH TO SILER CITY...MOVING EAST AT 25
MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...CHAPEL HILL...
DURHAM...PITTSBORO.

GUSTY WINDS UP OF 40 TO 50 MPH...VERY HEAVY RAIN AND DANGEROUS
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRODUCING AN EXCESSIVE AMOUNT OF DEADLY
LIGHTNING. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY AWAY FROM THE WINDOWS. DO
NOT USE THE TELEPHONE UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU CANNOT SEEK
SHELTER INDOORS AUTOMOBILES CAN PROVIDE ADEQUATE SHELTER.

JO

NCZ073-112200-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
537 PM EDT FRI JUL 11 2003

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS STANLY COUNTY THROUGH 600 PM
EDT...

AT 537 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING ROCKWELL TO LOCUST...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...ALBEMARLE...
FINGER...RICHFIELD...BADIN AND NORWOOD.

GUSTY WINDS UP OF 40 TO 50 MPH...VERY HEAVY RAIN AND DANGEROUS
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRODUCING AN EXCESSIVE AMOUNT OF DEADLY
LIGHTNING. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY AWAY FROM THE WINDOWS. DO
NOT USE THE TELEPHONE UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU CANNOT SEEK
SHELTER INDOORS AUTOMOBILES CAN PROVIDE ADEQUATE SHELTER.

NCZ008-025-040-041-112230-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
556 PM EDT FRI JUL 11 2003

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS GRANVILLE...DURHAM...
WESTERN WAKE AND CHATHAM COUNTIES THROUGH 630 PM EDT...

AT 556 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM BUTNER TO PITTSBORO...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...CREEDMOOR...AND
CARY. STORMS WILL REACH RALEIGH AROUND 630 PM.

GUSTY WINDS UP OF 40 TO 50 MPH...VERY HEAVY RAIN AND DANGEROUS
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRODUCING AN EXCESSIVE AMOUNT OF DEADLY
LIGHTNING. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY AWAY FROM THE WINDOWS. DO
NOT USE THE TELEPHONE UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU CANNOT SEEK
SHELTER INDOORS AUTOMOBILES CAN PROVIDE ADEQUATE SHELTER.

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