Hail and Damaging Wind in Texas, July 11, 2003

SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
255 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2003

STILL EXPECTING CONVECTION TO FIRE ALONG THE SEABREEZE AND LEFTOVER
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THIS AFTN. HOWEVER THE ADDITIONAL REMNANT/OVERNITE
STORMS MOVING ACROSS THE NRN ZONES ARE THE ONES WE ARE TAKING A BIT
MORE NOTICE OF. THIS SMALL COMPLEX APPEARS TO BE MOVING INTO A VERY
UNSTABLE AMS AND AS A RESULT...THIS PORTION OF THE CWA HAS BEEN PUT
IN A SVR WATCH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTN.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST PCKG NOT AS CLEAR CUT AS THE MODELS WOULD
LIKE TO PORTRAY EITHER. PROGGED TRENDS WOULD SEEM TO INDICATE SOME
DRYING IS IN ORDER FOR THE CWA THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS PWS DROP
TO AOA 1.5 (SAVE FOR THE ERN CWA/COAST). THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE
LOOKS TO BE THE PRIMARY CULPRIT. HOWEVER...HAVING SAID ALL OF THIS
AM INCLINED TO STILL KEEP POPS ABOVE GUIDANCE THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
THIS TREND OF LOWER PWS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED BY THE MODELS THE LAST
SEVERAL RUNS BUT HAS YET TO REALLY MATERIALIZE. SO WILL LIKELY ERR
ON THE SIDE OF WET FOR THE TIME BEING. PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL DIV-
ERGENCE AND SPORADIC WEAK S/W ACTIVITY FROM THE INCREASINGLY NNWLY
FLOW ALOFT ALSO MAKING A GOOD CASE FOR BETTER THAN SLIGHT CHC POPS
TOMORROW AND SUN. AS FOR T.S. CLAUDETTE...THE OFFICIAL TRACK STILL
PUSHES THE SYSTEM INTO FAR S TX EARLY NEXT WEEK. SO...UNLESS SOME-
THING REALLY DRAMATIC COMES FROM THE NEXT HOTLINE CALL...WILL PRO-
BABLY KEEP WITH WHAT WE ALREADY HAVE IN THE EXTENDED. 41/37/45

.HGX...NONE.

.PRELIMS...
CLL BB 074/097 073/095 074 321
IAH BB 076/095 074/095 074 332
GLS BB 080/090 079/090 080 332

GMZ330-335-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-112300-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
654 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS FEATURE. SOME OF THE
STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SMALL HAIL THIS MORNING AND
GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. RAINFALL WILL AVERAGE BETWEEN A HALF
AND ONE INCH TODAY. STORM MOTION WILL BE SLOW...SO A FEW SPOTS
WILL RECEIVE GREATER THAN 2 INCHES OF RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE WAS APPROACHING THE YUCATAN THIS MORNING AND
WILL ENTER THE GULF OF MEXICO LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL SOLUTIONS
VARY ON THE FUTURE TRACK OF THIS STORM...BUT THE CURRENT TROPICAL
PREDICTION CENTER FORECAST TAKES CLAUDETTE INTO THE WEST CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO ON MONDAY. INTERESTS ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST SHOULD
MONITOR FUTURE FORECASTS FOR TRACK INFORMATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-
235>238-120500-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1105 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2003

...TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE MOVING INTO THE GULF...

TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE MOVING OFF THE NORTHERN YUCATAN COAST
EARLY THIS AFTEROON AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWEST TODAY.
THE TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER IS FORECASTING THE STORM TO MOVE
NORTHWEST THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING THEN A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL BEGIN STEERING THE STORM WEST. THE
CURRENT FORECAST TRACK MAKES LANDFALL IN NORTHERN MEXICO OR SOUTHERN
TEXAS MONDAY MORNING AS A WEAK HURRICANE. SOME UNCERTAINTY IS PRESENT
IN THE SPEED OF FORECAST TRACK OF THE STORM AFTER SUNDAY...THOUGH THE
BEST GUIDANCE AT THE MOMENT INDICATES THE STORM SHOULD TURN WEST.

CURRENTLY THE PRIMARY ISSUE FOR THE UPPER TEXAS COAST IS EXPECTED TO
BE SWELLS...HIGH SURF...DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AND ELEVATED TIDES AS
WAVES GENERATED FROM THE WIND FIELD SURROUNDING THE STORM SPREAD AWAY
FROM THE STORM. SEAS IN THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS SHOULD BE ON
THE INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE STORMS FIRST
SWELLS. CURRENTLY SEAS SHOULD BE BUILDING TO 6 FEET SATURDAY AND TO
10 FEET WELL OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. EASTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS
WILL LIKELY BE PRESENT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS BEYOND 20 NM OF SHORE
ON SUNDAY IF THE STORMS INTENSITY AND TRACK FORECASTS ARE CORRECT.
TIDES OF AROUND 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL MAY BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY.

CLOSE ATTENTION SHOULD CONTINUE ON FORECASTS OF THE STORMS STRENGTH
AND TRACK THIS WEEKEND. THE TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER WILL BE
ISSUING MORE NUMEROUS FORECASTS AS THIS STORM TRACKS ACROSS THE GULF
WITH THE NEXT UPDATE AT 1 PM.