High Wind in Montana, August 14, 2003

SOUTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
300 PM MDT THU AUG 14 2003

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA THIS EVENING. HOWEVER LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTION IS EXPECTED.
HOWEVER I DID KEEP IN 10 POPS FOR THIS EVENING...AS STORMS HAVE
BEEN DEVELOPING BETWEEN 6 AND 8 PM OVER THE AREA THE PAST FEW NIGHTS.
THEN A VERY HOT AND MOSTLY DRY DAY EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION FOR
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR RECORD LEVELS IN MANY AREAS. A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH WESTERN
MONTANA ON FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE...COMBINED WITH AN UNSTABLE
AIR MASS ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF MAINLY EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. EXPECT THE STORMS TO
END OVER THE NORTH BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...ANG TEMPERATURES TO
BE ONLY A FEW DEGREES COOLER.

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE ISSUED OVER THE WESTERN FIRE ZONES FOR
THE FRIDAY NIGHT EVENT DUE TO THE DRY CONDITIONS AND MOST STORMS
CONTAINING LITTLE RAINFALL. BRUSDA

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST FROM
SUNDAY ON. GFS ADVERTISING PACIFIC COLD FRONT TO PLOW THROUGH REGION
SUNDAY. BUT GFS HAS BEEN LESS THAN STELLAR IN PREDICTING THE
BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE. THEREFORE WILL LET CURRENT FORECAST RIDE
WITH A SLIGHT COOLING TREND...AND NOT AS STRONG OF A NORTHWEST WIND
FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. I AM A LITTLE WARY OF A MAINLY DRY FORECAST AS
THE TONGUE OF MONSOON MOISTURE STRETCHING FROM MEXICO MAY CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE AREA INTO NEXT WEEK. WILL LEAVE DRY FORECAST FOR NOW GIVEN
LACK OF MODEL CONTINUITY. POMEROY

.CCF NUMBERS
GTF KU 063/100 061/096 060 17102
    UUUUU 092/058 088/055 087/055 087/055 087 00022000000
CTB KU 059/096 059/092 058 17102
    UUUUU 087/055 085/050 081/054 081/052 081 00012000000
HLN KU 063/102 062/098 061 17113
    UUUUU 095/060 091/056 091/058 091/057 091 00022000000
BZN KU 056/100 061/096 060 17122
    UUUUU 093/055 093/055 088/055 088/054 088 10022001100
WEY KU 053/093 052/089 050 17122
    UUUUU 087/044 089/044 081/042 081/041 081 11032001100
DLN KU 061/098 058/094 057 17123
    UUUUU 094/050 093/050 089/052 089/051 089 22012001111
HVR KU 064/102 062/098 061 17100
    UUUUU 094/063 091/056 089/061 089/060 089 00012000000
LWT KU 062/098 062/094 059 17101
    UUUUU 090/060 093/057 087/058 087/057 087 00022000000

.TFX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THUNDERSTORM
       ACTIVITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 114...116...AND 118...

MTZ008>015-044>055-151210-
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
552 PM MDT THU AUG 14 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA

.DAY ONE...TODAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
FRIDAY NIGHT FOR A CHANCE OF DRY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL MONTANA. PLEASE REFER TO GTFRFWTFX AND
GTFRFWMSO FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.