Flash Flood and Hail in Arizona, August 14, 2003

Name: Flash Flood and Hail in Arizona, August 14, 2003
Start: 2003-08-14T15:30
End: 2003-08-14T19:00
Location: Arizona

August 14, 2003 · NWS PSR · 3 events in 1 county or zone

1 hail, 1 thunderstorm wind, 1 flash flood, as filed by the National Weather Service.

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it; 1 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.

Tornadoes
Tropical storms and surge
Floods
Wind
Hail
Winter weather
Heat and drought
Cold
Fire, smoke and dust
Marine and coastal
Other

Open the live radar over this ground

The toll

Deaths: 1
Injuries: 0
Property damage: $51,000
Crop damage: None recorded
Events: 3

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Phoenix, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 14, 3:20 PM MST, 10 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Aug 14, 3:20 PM MST, 10 minutes before

AZZ020>028-CAZ030>033-150545-

SOUTHWEST ARIZONA/SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
320 PM MST THU AUG 14 2003

.SYNOPSIS...
VERY UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INTO THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LOW DRIFTS OVER
THE REGION FROM THE EAST. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL RUMBLE ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS EVENING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. AFTER TONIGHT...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE...WITH ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DECREASE SOMEWHAT OVER THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA ON FRIDAY DUE TO THE RAIN-COOLED AIR...WITH
READINGS EXPECTED TO REBOUND OVER THE WEEKEND. THE WEATHER WILL
RETURN TO A MORE NORMAL MONSOON PATTERN THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

.DISCUSSION...
LOTS OF PARAMETERS COMING TOGETHER FOR A VERY ACTIVE EVENING ACROSS
MAINLY ERN CWFA. THESE FACTORS INCLUDE A VERY MOIST...UNSTABLE
AIRMASS...A FAVORABLE NELY STEERING FLOW WITH LOTS OF SHEER IN THE
0-6KM LAYER...DIVERGENCE ALOFT WITH LARGE SCALE MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE
...DYNAMICS WITH APPROACHING INVERTED TROF...IE JUST ABOUT ALL ONE
COULD ASK FOR TO ENSURE LOTS OF WEATHER. AS A RESULT...HAVE GONE
WITH VERY HIGH POPS FOR SCNTRL AZ TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH
LOWER NUMBERS FURTHER W. SPC ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON FOR BASICALLY SOUTH-CENTRAL INTO NE AZ TIL
04Z. IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAIN THREAT HAS PROMPTED US TO ISSUE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR SCTNRL AZ UNTIL 12Z FRIDAY.

AFTER TONIGHT...INVERTED TROF MOVES INTO AZ AND THEN MEANDERS NWD
DURING THE WEEKEND. COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL SERVE TO DESTABLIZE THE
AMS EVEN FURTHER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH IF TONIGHT IS ACTIVE
...WE WOULD HAVE LOTS OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION TO OVERCOME IN THE
ABSENCE OF MORE UPPER FORCING. WE MAY HAVE SOME OF THAT BOTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY AS ADDITIONAL VORT MAXIMA ROTATE AROUND TROUGH. SO...
WILL BASICALLY KEEP CHANCE TYPE POPS GOING INTO SATURDAY...LOWERING
POPS A BIT ON SUNDAY...WITH A LOW GRADE MONSOON FORECAST MAINTAINED
MONDAY THRU THURSDAY.

.PSR...SVR TSTM WATCH SCNTRL AZ...ZONES 22...23...24...27 AND
       28 TIL 04Z.
       FLASH FLOOD WATCH SAME ZONES 00Z-12Z.

Hazardous weather outlook, Aug 14, 6:19 AM MST, 9 hours 11 minutes before

AZZ020>028-CAZ030>033-150100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
619 AM MST THU AUG 14 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL OCCUR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG
POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS...DENSE BLOWING DUST...AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

AN UNUSUALLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING FROM TEXAS INTO
ARIZONA WILL CONTINUE THE UNSETTLED WEATHER ON FRIDAY. A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...AND SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA.  THUNDERSTORMS
ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS...DENSE
BLOWING DUST...AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

DECREASING THREATS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.INSTRUCTIONS TO SPOTTERS...
WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

The radar

The Tucson radar (KEMX), 79 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 22:27 UTC.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

1 hail, 1 thunderstorm wind, 1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.

Hail, Pinal

When: August 14, 3:30 PM MST to 3:35 PM MST
Where: Pinal County, San Manuel
Measured: 1 in hail
Reported by: TRAINED SPOTTER
Coordinates: 32.600, -110.633

Thunderstorm Wind, Pinal

When: August 14, 3:45 PM MST to 3:55 PM MST
Where: Pinal County, San Manuel
Measured: 60 kt (69 mph) estimated gust
Property damage: $1,000
Reported by: TRAINED SPOTTER
Coordinates: 32.904, -111.345 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Severe thunderstorms moved west towards San Maneul and Oracle. Strong winds knocked down a teepee that was supported by 10 six inch diameter poles.

Flash Flood, Pinal

When: August 14, 5:30 PM MST to 7:00 PM MST
Where: Pinal County, 4 mi SE of Oracle
Deaths: 1 direct, 0 indirect
Property damage: $50,000
Reported by: NEWSPAPER
Coordinates: 32.600, -110.633

Around 1.50 to 1.75 inches of rain fell in 30 minutes, with isolated reports of 1.90 inches. The Bonito Wash flooded several homes in the Campo Bonito area. Along the Canada del Oro Wash, the Rancho Solano gauge recorded a 9 foot rise of water. Several houses sustained flood damage. To compound the problem of the fast rising water, two culverts at a bridge downstream became blocked.

The people who died

As the offices recorded each death: direct deaths were caused by the weather itself, indirect ones by something it set in motion.

Event	Date	Age	Sex	Where	Kind
Thunderstorm Wind, Pinal	2003-08-14	60	Male	Outside/Open Areas	Direct

What these are

Hail: Hail three-quarters of an inch or larger, or smaller hail that caused damage, filed with the largest stone measured.
Thunderstorm Wind: Winds from a thunderstorm of 50 knots (58 mph) or more, or lower winds that caused damage or casualties. Measured gusts are marked MG, estimated EG.
Flash Flood: Flooding that begins within six hours of the rain that causes it, or of a dam or levee failure or ice jam release, often with deadly speed.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

Every storm in Arizona in 2003 Every state in 2003 This day in weather history Warnings in Arizona, August 2003

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 5374514, 5374730, 5374515.