Damaging Winds in Michigan, July 4, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
630 AM EST FRI JUL 4 2003

12Z TAF DISCUSSION
MCS ADVANCING FROM THE WEST IS LOSING INTENSITY BUT SPREADING
SOUTHWARD...SO WILL STILL HAVE A BRIEF MENTION OF TSRA IN THE KSBN
TAF THIS MORNING AS THE MCS REMANANTS PASS THROUGH. A LULL IN THE
ACTION THEN UNTIL THUNDERSTORMS REFIRE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS
AND THUNDER THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. TRIED TO TIME
THUNDER WITH DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN AGAIN WITH
POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF MCS LATER TONIGHT.

PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION
COMPLICATED FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH EXACTLY WHERE
FRONT/OUTFLOWS WILL BE AND WHERE MCS WILL MIGRATE AND FORM. FIRST
COMPLEX OVER IOWA SHOULD BECOME ONE WITH MINNESOTA COMPLEX AND WORK
EAST THIS MORNING. THIS LOOKS TO WORK TO MI BY MIDDAY AND OUTFLOW
FROM IT MAY BE ABLE TO POPS AFTERNOON STORMS OVER CWA WITH BETTER
CHANCE NORTH. TONIGHT EXPECT ANOTHER COMPLEX TO MOVE ACROSS OR
DEVELOP NEAR CWA AND WILL GO LIKELY POPS. STRONG LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY TO BE TAPPED WITH WIND FIELDS IMPROVING WITH TIME. HOT
AND HUMID TODAY WITH HEAT INDEX TOWARD UPPER 90S AND WILL MENTION IN
HWO ALONG WITH SEVERE THREAT. QUESTION NEXT IS FOR SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH HOW FAR FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH. WILL KEEP CHC
POPS INTO EARLY SAT NIGHT THEN EXPECT BOUNDARY WILL BE FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH TO GO DRY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE THAT
BOUNDARY WILL BE THAT FAR SOUTH BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE SUNDAY DRY AS
PREVIOUS FORECAST UNTIL PICTURE BECOMES CLEARER. LITTLE CHANGE IN
TEMPS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION
GFS AND GEM IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED.  SURFACE TROF REMAINS
JUST TO OUR WEST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH BERMUDA
HIGH EXTENSION ESTABLISHED OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES.
ATMOSPHERE VERY UNSTABLE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH PWAT 1.5 TO 2
INCHES. FRONT THEN DOES MAKE SOME HEADWAY SOUTH ON TUESDAY INTO THE
CWFA ALONG WITH MORE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. FRONT THEN GETS HUNG UP
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER WEDNESDAY...BEFORE WEAK RIDGING NOSES IN ON
THURSDAY.

.IWX...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.

RES/12

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-051000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
505 AM EST FRI JUL 4 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN INDIANA...NORTHWEST
OHIO AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH THE BEST
CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A
WEAK FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA IN COMBINATION WITH A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES. DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MOST LIKELY THREAT FROM
THESE STORMS WITH SOME LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE.

ALSO THIS AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S COMBINED WITH
HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BRING HEAT INDEX VALUES TO THE UPPER 90S.
USE EXTRA CAUTION IF OUTDOORS...DRINK PLENTY OF WATER AND TAKE
FREQUENT BREAKS FROM STRENUOUS PHYSICAL ACTIVITIES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE IS CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY...AS WELL HAS MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME IT IS UNCERTAIN WHETHER ANY STORMS
WILL BE SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES, OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/IWX