Flash Flood and Flooding in Ohio, July 4 to 5, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
950 AM EDT FRI JUL 4 2003

MCS PUSHING EAST ACROSS LAKE MICH ATTM WITH THIN LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING SOUTH FROM IT INTO NW INDIANA. 850-300 MB
THERMAL FIELDS AT 12Z POINTING DOWN TOWARD OHIO BUT THESE FORECAST
TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH 18Z SO MAIN PORTION OF MCS SHOULD REMAIN TO
OUR NORTH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITH HIGH CAPES PROGGED
FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON SOUTHERN EXTENSION
AS THIS BOUNDARY COULD SNEAK INTO OUR NW THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
CURRENT FORECAST HAS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR WAPOK GROUP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE. OTHER CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE
HEAT INDICES. 12Z ILN SOUNDING GIVING HIGHS UP INTO THE LOWER 90S
AND DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE LOWERS 70S...POSSIBLY
CREEPING INTO THE MID 70S. THIS WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDICES CLOSE TO
100. CURRENT FORECAST IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE AND PLAN NO MAJOR
CHANGES. WILL ONLY UPDATE TO CLEAN UP SOME WORDING.

.ILN...
OH...HEAT ADVISORY FOR HAMILTON COUNTY TODAY.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-041130-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
533 AM EDT FRI JUL 4 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN INDIANA...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY AND THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CREATE HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 95 AND 100
TODAY.  AS A RESULT A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR CINCINNATI
(HAMILTON COUNTY).  THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS
MAINLY AFTER SUNSET NORTH OF DAYTON AND COLUMBUS AS A COLD FRONT
SLIDES SOUTH INTO NORTHERN OHIO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN OHIO SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.  THIS WILL BRING
AFTERNOON/EVENING THREATS OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

 TIPTON

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-042200-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1052 AM EDT FRI JUL 4 2003

...HOT AND HUMID WEATHER EXPECTED FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY.  AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 90S.  THESE TEMPERATURES...COMBINED WITH HIGH
HUMIDITIES...WILL PRODUCE AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES AROUND 100 DEGREES.

A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR HAMILTON COUNTY...INCLUDING
CINCINNATI...TODAY. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WORSE IN DOWNTOWN
AREAS...WHERE CONCENTRATED AMOUNTS OF CONCRETE AND ASPHALT WILL
PRODUCE HIGHER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HEAT INDICES.

CHILDREN...THE ELDERLY AND PEOPLE WITH CHRONIC AILMENTS ARE USUALLY
THE FIRST TO SUFFER FROM THE HEAT. HEAT EXHAUSTION...CRAMPS...OR IN
EXTREME CASES HEAT STROKE CAN RESULT FROM PROLONGED EXPOSURE TO THESE
CONDITIONS. FRIENDS...RELATIVES...OR NEIGHBORS SHOULD CHECK ON
PEOPLE WHO MAY BE AT RISK.

PERSONS ARE ADVISED TO AVOID PROLONGED WORK IN SUN...OR IN POORLY
VENTILATED AREAS.  BE CAREFUL HOW YOU USE YOUR FANS.  A FAN
POINTED DIRECTLY AT A PERSON MAY CAUSE DEHYDRATION BY REMOVING
MOISTURE FROM THE SKIN.  USE A CIRCULATING FAN INSTEAD TO MOVE
AIR THROUGH THE ROOM.  STAY IN AN AIR CONDITIONED ENVIRONMENT IF
POSSIBLE.  DRINK PLENTY OF WATER AND NON-ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES.

INZ050-058-059-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-042100-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1105 AM EDT FRI JUL 4 2003

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THESE STORMS WILL
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
COMBINE WITH A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN OHIO
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...TO BE THE FOCUS OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT. HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL
PROVIDE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.

THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WAPAKONETA
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON....AND THEN SLOWLY SPREAD SOUTH TOWARD THE
DAYTON AND COLUMBUS AREAS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OKLAHOMA HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF INTERSTATE
70.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED NORTH OF DAYTON AND COLUMBUS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR
YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR FURTHER UPDATES.