Hail and Damaging Winds in Iowa, July 4 to 5, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
345 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2003

CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE A SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH A FRONTAL AND/OR
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...THOUGH FAIRLY STRONG ZONAL FLOW
JUST TO OUR NORTH. BUILDING HEIGHTS SHOULD SHUT DOWN PCPN THE LATTER
PART OF NEXT WEEK AS HEAT BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA.

MAIN PROBLEM WILL BE IN THE SHORT TERM WITH PLACEMENT OF CONVECTION
AND TIMING. VERY STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
LAST NIGHT PUSHED THROUGH ALL OF THE CWA EARLIER TODAY. MODELS OF
COURSE DID NOT LATCH ONTO THIS SO FOR SHORT TERM WILL GO WITH
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND LARGER SCALE MID/UPPER LEVEL FEATURES TO
GUIDE THE FORECAST. AREA TO REMAIN IN GENERAL UPPER DIFFLUENCE
TONIGHT AS RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF JET IS POISED JUST TO OUR NORTH.
IN ADDITION...MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE NORTH NORTHEAST OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
WINDS TO CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN AND RETURN TO THE SOUTHEAST.
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY HAS POOLED ALONG THE MO BORDER BUT AREA
REMAINS CAPPED. SOME CU BUILDUPS NOW ALONG AND S OF MO BORDER OVER
THE FAR SE CWA OTW CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL OVER THE SOUTHWEST. FURTHER
NORTH...ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDER HAS FESTERED ALL DAY IN STABLE
AIR ALONG THE H850 CONVERGENCE ZONE. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL RETURN NORTH A BIT THIS EVENING AND BE MAIN
AXIS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT TO OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST. CONVECTION
SHOULD THEN ORGANIZE INTO LINEAR SEGMENTS AS THEY MOVE ACROSS IOWA
LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MAIN THREAT OF COURSE BEING WIND. H850
FLOW VEERS THROUGH THE NIGHT SO SYSTEM SHOULD BE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE
AND AM NOT TOO CONCERNED ABOUT HEAVY RAIN THREAT...OTHER THAN AN
ISOLATED EVENT.

MOST OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD CLEAR THE CWA SATURDAY MORNING. MODELS
DEPICT VERY UNSTABLE AIR OVER CWA SATURDAY WITH VERY WEAK CAPPING.
NO WELL DEFINED LARGER SCALE BOUNDARY OVER AREA. KEY WILL BE ANY
EXISTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM CONVECTION TONIGHT. LOOKS LIKE BEST
CHANCE MAY BE FAR SOUTHWEST NEAR WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE. MODELS
DEPICT ANOTHER SHORT WAVE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH MAY BE
ENOUGH TO FOCUS ADDITIONAL NIGHTTIME CONVECTION OVER THE AREA.

HAVE GENERALLY SHUT POPS DOWN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT OVER MOST OF
THE AREA AS QUITE WARM MID LEVEL AIR SPREADS OVER THE CWA. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE NW LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN LINGERING
OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SO WILL NEED THUNDER CHANCES
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. LAST MAIN SHORT WAVE WHICH TOPS THE TOP OF THE
BUILDING UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND
BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE STATE WEDS AND THURS.
UPPER RIDGE AND RETURN FLOW BRINGS THE STEAMY WEATHER BACK BY NEXT
FRIDAY.

.DSM...NONE.

JAW

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075-081>086-
092>097-051100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
952 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL HOLD ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.  AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LEFT OVER
FROM THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THURSDAY NIGHT EXTENDS EAST TO WEST JUST
SOUTH OF IOWA.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO
MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP RAPIDLY OVER
WESTERN IOWA THIS EVENING...AND SPREAD OVER THE REST OF THE STATE
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.  THE MAIN THREAT FROM
THE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND AND HEAVY RAINFALL.  LARGE HAIL AND
HEAVY RAINFALL AREA SECONDARY THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA. SEVERE STORMS WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL
FOR ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL IOWA LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE ASSOCIATED THREATS OF HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE
WEATHER.

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL IOWA. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH IT IS TOO EARLY TO OUTLINE SPECIFIC TIMING AND
THREAT AREAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA...MAINLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT.  ACTIVATION IS ALSO POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 30.
&&

MORE INFORMATION CAN BE OBTAINED AT WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DMX (ALL LOWER
CASE).

MS JUL 03