Damaging Wind in Maryland, November 19, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
315 PM EST WED NOV 19 2003

19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM
EASTERN CANADA SOUTHWARD TO THE CAROLINAS. A FEW AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE HAVE DEVELOPED ON THIS FRONT WITH THE MAIN LOW TAKING
SHAPE OVER NORTHERN VIRGINIA/NORTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. PRESSURE FALLS
CENTERED ACROSS EASTERN PA AND INTO MD THIS AFTERNOON AS UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES, AND 300 MB JET STREAK ROUNDS THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH.
MAIN FOCUS WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS SEVERE TSTM/FLOOD POTENTIAL
IN THE SHORT TERM.

NARROW LINE OF CONVECTION EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING. VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SURFACE-BASED CAPE AS EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER REMAINED THIS AFTERNOON. MUCAPE APPROACHING 500 J/KG ON
19Z MESOANALYSIS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF CWA. DEW POINTS ARE NOW
IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. THE LACK OF INSTABILITY IS
BEING COMPENSATED BY THE STRONG WIND FIELDS ALOFT. 850 MB FLOW IS
CURRENTLY AROUND 60 KNOTS. THE MAIN THREAT FROM CONVECTION WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS, ESPECIALLY WITH EMBEDDED BOWING SEGMENTS. HOWEVER
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR COULD PROMOTE A BRIEF TORNADO SPIN-UP ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE LINE AS 0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES REMAIN HIGH. AS A
RESULT, THE TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM FOR THE ENTIRE
CWA. THE LINE ITSELF IS LOW-TOPPED WITH LITTLE OR NO CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING OCCURRING ATTM. AGAIN MAIN THREAT IS THE STRONG WINDS
ALOFT BEING TRANSPORTED DOWN TO THE SURFACE. PWS HAVE CLIMBED TO
1.2-1.5 INCHES, WHICH WILL PRODUCE SOME HEAVY RAINFALL. RAINFALL
RATES IN SOME OF THE CONCENTRATED CELLS COULD EXCEED 1 INCH PER
HOUR. FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR SAME AREAS
AS BEFORE.

THE BULK OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. 12Z ETA/GFS STILL IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM. HEAVIEST RAIN EXPECTED
TO END BY 1AM THURS AS LARGE SCALE FORCING SHIFTS EAST AND COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION. THE 12Z GFS HOWEVER DOES DEVELOP A STRONGER
WAVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURS AFTERNOON COMPARED TO THE
ETA. AS A RESULT, THE GFS HANGS BACK SOME SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE
CWA THROUGH THURS MORNING. WE WILL FOLLOW THIS AND CARRY CHC SHOWERS
THURS MORNING.

SYSTEM IS PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH THEREFORE DRIER AIR WILL INFILTRATE THE
REGION DURING THURS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE FRI. ODDLY ENOUGH THOUGH
THE GFS TRIES TO DROP SOME TYPE OF A BOUNDARY DOWN FROM THE NORTH
FRI AFTERNOON AS A LOW DEVELOPS IN THE PLAINS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
DOWN TO OUR SOUTH LOOKS TO HOLD ITS GROUND SO WE WILL KEEP FRI DRY.
OVERALL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH WILL HOLD SYSTEMS AT
BAY TO OUR WEST.

WEEKEND DOES NOT LOOK TO BAD AS MIDLEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN PLACE. ONE
STORM OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC, WHILE ANOTHER ONE REMAINS IN THE
MIDWEST. 850 MB TEMPS BACK ON THE RISE THIS WEEKEND, THEREFORE HIGH
TEMPS GETTING ABOVE NORMAL.

LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST ATTM.

HAVE A GOOD ONE

.PHI...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES.
DE...TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 6 PM ALL ZONES.
     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR DE1.

MD...TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 6 PM ALL ZONES.
     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MD8.

NJ...TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 6 PM ALL ZONES.
     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NJ1, NJ7>10, NJ15>19.

PA...TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 6 PM ALL ZONES.
     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR PA54-55, PA60>62, PA67>71.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADV FOR THE CST AND DE BAY.

GORSE

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ054-055-
060>062-067>071-191300-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
105 PM EST WED NOV 19 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA...DELAWARE...THE NORTHERN MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE...AND
NEW JERSEY EXCLUDING THE FIVE NORTHEAST COUNTIES.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THE
ENTIRE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AREA. IN ADDITION...TORNADOES ARE
POSSIBLE. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM EST.

ALSO...THE FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA...SOUTHWEST NEW JERSEY...NEW CASTLE COUNTY DE AND CECIL
COUNTY MD HAS BEEN EXTENDED AND NOW INCLUDES NW NJ AND THE POCONOS.
DUE TO THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS...SEE THE LATEST STATEMENT
PHLFFAPHI OR WMO HEADER WGUS61 KPHI FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WOODWORTH

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ054-055-
060>062-067>071-192300-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1109 AM EST WED NOV 19 2003

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FOR NEW JERSEY, EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA,
ALL OF DELAWARE AND THE MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE. THE MAIN THREAT FROM
THUNDERSTORMS IS DAMAGING WINDS.

A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM COUPLED WITH A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL APPROACH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE ENTIRE SYSTEM
WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THE WIND PROFILE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM IS CONDUCIVE TO POSSIBLY PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER. THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THIS SYSTEM TO PRODUCE A SQUALL LINE THAT COULD
GENERATE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH. IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER
THAT SQUALL LINES CAN OCCASIONALLY GENERATE BRIEF TORNADOES.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE
LATEST UPDATES ON THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SYSTEM.

THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR WEB SITE AT:
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ER/PHI

GORSE

MDZ008-012-015-019-192200-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
206 PM EST WED NOV 19 2003

A STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND OCCURRING NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE HAS
RESULTED IN MINOR FLOODING ALONG THE UPPER EASTERN SHORE OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY. WE RECEIVED A REPORT OF ROADS FLOODED ON KENT ISLAND
IN QUEEN ANNES COUNTY. THE HIGH TIDE ALONG THE UPPER EASTERN SHORE
THIS AFTERNOON IS BETWEEN 2 AND 4 PM. WATERS WILL SUBSIDE DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON.