Flash Flooding and Flooding in North Carolina, November 19 to 20, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG, VA
340 AM EST WED NOV 19 2003

.DISCUSSION...
GETTING SOME IMPRESSIVE UPSLOPE RAIN IN WATAUGA COUNTY IN NW NC
MTNS. A COUPLE IFLOWS GAGES SHOW HALF INCH AN HOUR RATES...FOR THE
PAST 4 TO 5 HOURS. THIS IS AN OLD CONVECTIVE BAND BRINGING THIS
RAINFALL...BUT THERE IS ANOTHER JUST AHEAD OF THE SFC FNT WHICH HAS
BEEN SHOWING SIGNS OF STRENGTHENING. MODELS ARE IN A LOT BETTER
AGREEMENT HANDLING THE UPPER LOW AND SFC FNT- THIS FNT WILL SWEEP
THRU THE FA TODAY. THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE GONE BY LATE
AFT/EVE...SO WILL KEEP THE FLOOD WATCH GOING...BUT CHANGE THE
EXPIRATION TIME TO 4 PM. GREATEST THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS IS IN THE
PIEDMONT- THINKING THE NRN EDGE OF THE MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE
BAND IN GSP/S CWA WILL TRANSLATE NEWD TODAY AND CLIP SE SECTIONS OF
THE CWA. DON/T EXPECT ANY SUN FOR HTG...BUT WITH A 60 KT 850 MB JET
AND PLENTY OF DYNAMICAL FORCING...THERE IS STILL A THREAT FOR
SEVERE. MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS...BUT HELICITY WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH
TO OVERCOME WEAK INSTABILITY AND MAY PRODUCE SOME WEAK TORNADOES.

DESPITE NO SUN...HAVE HAD TO RAISE MAX TEMPS BASED ON CURRENT TEMPS.
THERE IS NO DAMMING LEFT...AND I EXPECT THE UPSLOPE HEAVY RAIN TO
SPREAD NEWD INTO THE BLUE RIDGE IN VA THIS MORNING. ANY UPSLOPE SHUD
END BY NOON.

TONIGHT- KEPT A CHC OF SHOWERS FOR THE COLD POOL MOVG ACROSS THE
AREA BETWEEN 00 AND 06Z.

THU INTO THE WEEKEND- MAIN CHANGE TO THE FCST WAS TO DECREASE THE
CLOUDINESS QUITE A BIT AND RAISE MAX TEMPS. UPPER LOW IS NOW
PROGRESSIVE ON ALL MODELS...AND WE SHUD SEE THE LOW EXIT THE AREA BY
THU MORNING. SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO
THE NEXT VIGOROUS SYSTEM MOVG INTO THE WEST COAST.  LOOKS LIKE A
PERIOD OF FAIR WX INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH MODERATING HIGH TEMPS.
GOOD RADIATION CONDS BEGINNING FRI NIGHT WILL BRING COOLER MIN TEMPS
THAN PREVIOUSLY FCST.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FLOOD WATCH FOR TODAY FOR ZONES NCZ001>006...NCZ018>020.

VA...FLOOD WATCH FOR TODAY FOR ZONES
VAZ007...VAZ009>020...VAZ022>024...VAZ032>035...VAZ043>047...
VAZ058>059.

WV...FLOOD WATCH FOR TOODAY NIGHT FOR ZONES VZ042>045.

&&

JJ

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NCZ001>003-019-020-VAZ015-016-032-190930-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
231 AM EST WED NOV 19 2003

...MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN THIS MORNING...

AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION THIS MORNING. RAINFALL RATES UP TO A HALF INCH PER HOUR
ARE POSSIBLE. THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES
OF BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. RAINFALL TOTALS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH DAWN. DRIVERS THIS MORNING SHOULD PREPARE FOR
SUDDEN REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY DUE TO RAIN AND FOG. PONDING OF
WATER ON THE ROADS WILL OCCUR...LEADING TO A HYDROPLANING
HAZARD.

07

NCZ001>003-019-020-VAZ015>017-032-191130-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
434 AM EST WED NOV 19 2003

...MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN THIS MORNING...

AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. RAINFALL RATES UP TO A HALF INCH PER
HOUR ARE POSSIBLE. THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE EASTERN
SLOPES OF BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. RAINFALL TOTALS OF ONE TO THREE
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH DAWN. DRIVERS THIS MORNING SHOULD PREPARE
FOR SUDDEN REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY DUE TO RAIN AND FOG. PONDING OF
WATER ON THE ROADS WILL OCCUR...LEADING TO A HYDROPLANING HAZARD.

07

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
514 AM EST WED NOV 19 2003

VAZ007-010>012-WVZ042>045-191007-
BLAND VA-GILES VA-GREENBRIER WV-MERCER WV-MONROE WV-SUMMERS WV-
TAZEWELL VA-WYTHE VA-
514 AM EST WED NOV 19 2003

AN AREA OF SHOWERS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE PASSING THROUGH
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE NEW RIVER VALLEY...AND SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA...THROUGH AT LEAST 8:00 AM. RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE AREA
OVERNIGHT THROUGH 5:00 AM HAVE AVERAGED AROUND AN INCH TO AN INCH AND
A HALF. AN ADDITIONAL INCH IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 5:00 AND 8:00
AM...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF UP TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE.

THIS HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE SHARP RISES ON CREEKS AND SMALL
STREAMS IN THE AREA THIS MORNING...IN ADDITION TO FLOODING OF LOW
LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. ANY LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE LOCALLY
HEAVIER RAINFALL OF 2 INCHES OR MORE MAY EXPERIENCE FLOODING ON
CREEKS AND STREAMS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...CORRECTED EPIRATION TIME...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
514 AM EST WED NOV 19 2003

VAZ007-010>012-WVZ042>045-191307-
BLAND VA-GILES VA-GREENBRIER WV-MERCER WV-MONROE WV-SUMMERS WV-
TAZEWELL VA-WYTHE VA-
514 AM EST WED NOV 19 2003

AN AREA OF SHOWERS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE PASSING THROUGH
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE NEW RIVER VALLEY...AND SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA...THROUGH AT LEAST 8:00 AM. RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE AREA
OVERNIGHT THROUGH 5:00 AM HAVE AVERAGED AROUND AN INCH TO AN INCH AND
A HALF. AN ADDITIONAL INCH IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 5:00 AND 8:00
AM...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF UP TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE.

THIS HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE SHARP RISES ON CREEKS AND SMALL
STREAMS IN THE AREA THIS MORNING...IN ADDITION TO FLOODING OF LOW
LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. ANY LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE LOCALLY
HEAVIER RAINFALL OF 2 INCHES OR MORE MAY EXPERIENCE FLOODING ON
CREEKS AND STREAMS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
557 AM EST WED NOV 19 2003

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
WVZ042>045-191029-
ALLEGHANY VA-ALLEGHANY NC-AMHERST VA-APPOMATTOX VA-ASHE NC-BATH VA-
BEDFORD VA-BLAND VA-BOTETOURT VA-BUCKINGHAM VA-CAMPBELL VA-
CARROLL VA-CASWELL NC-CHARLOTTE VA-CRAIG VA-FLOYD VA-FRANKLIN VA-
GILES VA-GRAYSON VA-GREENBRIER WV-HALIFAX VA-HENRY VA-MERCER WV-
MONROE WV-MONTGOMERY VA-PATRICK VA-PITTSYLVANIA VA-PULASKI VA-
ROANOKE VA-ROCKBRIDGE VA-ROCKINGHAM NC-SMYTH VA-STOKES NC-SUMMERS WV-
SURRY NC-TAZEWELL VA-WATAUGA NC-WILKES NC-WYTHE VA-YADKIN NC-
558 AM EST WED NOV 19 2003

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. A LINE OF
SHOWERS...AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE PIEDMONTS OF NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA FROM LATE THIS MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON. SOME OF THESE
STORMS MAY HAVE DAMAGING WINDS. IN ADDITION...A SECOND AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IN EASTERN TENNESSEE AND
MOVE INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA AND SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA. THERE WOULD BE A THREAT FOR
LARGE HAIL FROM THESE STORMS.

A FLOOD WATCH IS ALSO STILL IN EFFECT THROUGH TODAY.

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY.

JJ