Damaging Wind in Louisiana, August 11, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
620 AM CDT MON AUG 11 2003

HAVE UPDATED ZONES TO RAISE POPS

.OVERVIEW...UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE EASTERN/CNTRL US FINALLY
LOOKS TO BE BREAKING DOWN. IMPULSE MOVING OUT OF KANSAS INTO
NORTHEAST OK.

CLOSER TO HOMEWEAK BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM LFT NW TO POE TO NORTH OF
LFK THIS MORNING. TEMPS NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY IN THE 70S WHILE TO
THE SOUTH TEMPS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80. SHWRS/TSTMS
HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP OVER NW LA THIS MORNING WITH ACTVTY MOVING TO
THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.

.SHORT TERM...PRECIP OVER NE LA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH AND
INTO VERNON/RAPIDES PARISHES BEFORE SUNRISE. THE ATMOSPHERE LOOKS
TO HAVE FINALLY BROKE THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPRESSION THAT HAS HELD
PRECIP OUT OF THE EQUATION AND AFTN TEMPS ABOUT 3 TO 5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE LAST WEEK. WHAT LOOKS TO BE HAPPENING IS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL RETROGRADE BACK TO THE WEST WITH THE TROF AXIS
SHIFTING TO OUR WEST. THIS WILL PROVIDE LIFT AS MSTR STREAMS OUT
OF THE GULF NORTHWARD. ANOTHER BIT OF GOOD NEWS WILL BE TEMPS WILL BE
COOLER.

.EXTENDED...WE ARE MOVING BACK INTO A RAINY PERIOD AND THIS LOOKS TO
HOLD INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF CONTS TO RETROGRADE
BACK TO THE WEST.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

KLCH 92 75 91 74 / 70 30 50 40
KBPT 91 75 91 75 / 60 30 50 40
KAEX 90 72 90 70 / 70 30 50 40
KLFT 92 74 90 74 / 70 30 50 40

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.

K. KUYPER

LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-TXZ180>182-201-215-216-121000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
500 AM CDT MON AUG 11 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS...CENTRAL...
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME INCREASING UNSTABLE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS
AS THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS KEPT PRECIPITATION IN CHECK AND
TEMPERATURES HOT...SHIFTS TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. THIS HAS
ALLOWED THE UPPER LEVEL TROF TO OUR EAST TO BACK ACROSS THE AREA.
STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER NORTHWEST LOUISIANA THIS MORNING AS MID-
LEVEL SUPPORT...LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE...AND A WEAK BOUNDARY COMBINE
TO ALLOW STORM DEVELOPMENT. STORMS TODAY WILL MOVE FROM THE NORTH
TOWARDS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND BRIEF VERY STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF DRIFTS TO THE WEST...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. SOME
OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE MAINLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS, HAM RADIO OPERATORS, AND EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS...IS
NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME.

K. KUYPER