Hail and Damaging Winds in Kansas, August 11, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
915 PM CDT SUN AUG 10 2003

SMALL CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH OUT OF SWRN IA INTO
NWRN MO ON THE NOSE OF THE VORT MAX SPINNING ACROSS IA. CORFIDI
VECTORS TAKE THIS COMPLEX STRAIGHT S-SW INTO ERN KS AND WRN MO. AM A
LITTLE CONCERNED WITH THE COMPLEX HOLDING TOGETHER INTO SERN KS AS
BEST INSTABILITY IS OVER NERN KS WITH NO PROMINENT 850H LLJ FEEDING
MOISTURE INTO THE SYSTEM. LACK OF INSTABILITY IN SERN KS SUGGESTS
TSRA WILL WEAKEN AS THE NIGHT GOES ALONG.  MESOETA AND RUC DOING A
PRETTY GOOD JOB WITH THE QPF WITH THIS COMPLEX OVERSPREADING SERN KS
BY THE 09-12Z TIME FRAME.  SO GOING POPS FOR SERN KS LOOKS FINE EVEN
WITH THE UNCERTAINTIES. WILL TRIM BACK POPS IN CEN KS TO A SLGT CHC
AS COMPLEX AND POPS CHCS LOOKS TO STAY EAST OF THIS AREA.

KETCHAM

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309 PM CDT SUN AUG 10 2003

A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND LIFT AT H7 WILL DROP SSW TONIGHT ACROSS THE CWA
TO HELP IN CREATING A CHANCE FOR MORE THUNDERSHOWERS.  THE BETTER
CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS SE KANSAS, HOWEVER, SLIGHT CHANCE WILL BE
CARRIED TO THE WEST OF A SALINA TO WICHITA LINE.  THEN IT LOOKS AS
THOUGH A CHANCE FOR THE REOCCURRING PESKY SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH MONDAY EAST OF THE FLINT HILLS.  TOKEN 30 POPS WILL BE
FORECASTED.  CURRENT FORECAST HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE CWA
ON WEDNESDAY.  MY CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW THAT THIS WILL OCCUR WITH
SPORADIC SHORTWAVE MOVEMENT AND CURRENT MODEL HANDLING.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD NOT FLUCTUATE MUCH AS
READINGS WILL LINGER AROUND 90 DEGREES.

EXTENDED...
GFS SETS UP A WEAK BOUNDARY ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES AND
MOVES IT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY.
ENOUGH LIFT IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN ACCOMPANYING SHORTWAVE.  THIS WILL
BE ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER AT THIS TIME.
THE BOUNDARY AND LIFT LOOKS TO EXIT THE CWA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
I WOULD NOT BE TOO SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ON
SUNDAY MORNING IN THE FAR SE SECTIONS, HOWEVER, I WILL LEAVE A
MENTION OF RW OUT AT THIS TIME.

FCSTID =    1
ICT   68  90  66  89 /  30  20  10  10
HUT   68  90  65  89 /  30  10  10  10
EWK   68  90  65  89 /  30  20  10  10
EQA   67  90  65  88 /  30  20  10  10
WLD   68  91  66  88 /  30  20  10  20
RSL   65  90  63  89 /  20  10  10   5
GBD   66  90  62  89 /  20  10  10  10
SLN   67  89  64  89 /  30  10  10  10
MPR   68  90  65  89 /  30  20  10  10
CFV   66  90  65  86 /  40  30  10  20
CNU   65  89  65  86 /  40  30  10  10
K88   65  90  65  86 /  40  30  10  10

.ICT...
KS...NONE.

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-111030-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
430 PM CDT SUN AUG 10 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH INTO EASTERN
KANSAS TONIGHT. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A FEW THUNDERSHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS ON MONDAY.  THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. SEVERE WEATHER
DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE
NECESSARY IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTE KANSAS LATE THIS TOWARDS
MORNING.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION, SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/ICT/HWO/HWOICT.HTM

JMC/CHANCE