Heavy Rain in Kansas, August 30 to 31, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KANSAS
350 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2003

IN KANSAS IT SEEMS THE ONLY WAY WE CAN END A DROUGHT IS TO HAVE
FLOODING RAINS.

HOW MUCH AND WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL FALL IS OBVIOUSLY THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERN.

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARLY STATIONARY
FROM NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO EAST CENTRAL KANSAS AT MID
AFTERNOON. RADARS SHOWING WIDESPREAD RAIN NORTH OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG FRONT. ALL MODELS
INDICATING NEARLY 100 PERCENT CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS MOST OF CWA
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS UPPER LOW/TROUGH OVER WYOMING MOVES SOUTHEAST
OUT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. ALSO CERTAINLY
NO LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE AS 70 DEWPOINTS ARE FEEDING NORTH FROM GULF
INTO CENTRAL PLAINS SO CONTINUED LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS APPEAR LIKELY.
ETA THE FARTHEST NORTH WITH BULLS EYE ON SUNDAY WHILE NGM/AVN
FARTHER SOUTH...MAINLY OVER OUR CWA. GUT FEELING IS THAT HEAVIEST
RAINS WILL TEND TO BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AND
ESPECIALLY OVER EAST CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY
IS SET UP AND NOT LIKELY TO MOVE MUCH OVER NEXT 24 HOURS. HEAVIEST
RAINS OVER LAST TWO DAYS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED OVER
EAST CENTRAL. THUS WILL GO WITH FLOOD WATCH FOR AREAS GENERALLY
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

BEYOND SUNDAY...UPPER SYSTEM FINALLY BEGINS TRANSLATING EAST OF AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT. BY MONDAY MORNING...MOST OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE TO
EAST OF CWA BUT MAY SEE LINGERING SHOWERS OVER EAST CENTRAL ON
MONDAY.

BEYOND MONDAY...LOOKING FAIRLY DRY AGAIN AND HAVE KEPT FORECAST DRY
THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY. WITH ALL THE RAIN LIKELY TO GET OVER NEXT 24
HOURS...WILL BE HARD TO WARM TEMPERATURES BACK UP INTO THE 90S AND
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S LOOK ABOUT RIGHT FOR NEXT WEEK.

.TOP...FLOOD WATCH FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 FOR
       TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

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KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-311100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
505 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL...NORTHEAST AND
EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

OCCASIONAL RAIN AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT. NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...BUT RAINFALL WILL
BE HEAVY AT TIMES AND COULD POSE A FLOODING HAZARD...ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS WHERE HEAVY RAINS HAVE FALLEN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
CONSEQUENTLY A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 70 FOR TONIGHT. LIGHTNING WILL ALSO POSE A HAZARD.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD STILL PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINS AGAIN DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE, 70 WHERE A FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CALL IN RAINFALL REPORTS...ESPECIALLY IF
HEAVY RAINS IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH OCCURS.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/TOP  (ALL LOWER CASE)

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