Rip Current in Florida, August 30, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
355 AM CDT SAT 30 AUG 2003

DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS BEEN SLOWER
AND FURTHER WEST THAN WHAT THE ETA/GFS PACKAGES HAVE ALLUDED TO
FOR THE PAST THREE DAYS.  FOR TODAY...WITH PW VALUES STILL UP IN
EXCESS OF 2 INCHES...ADEQUATE INSTABILITY AND THE USUAL DIURNALLY
DRIVEN FOCUSING MECHANISMS...WE WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS GOING ALL
ZONES.  WE WENT A BIT WARMER THAN BOTH MOS GUIDANCES FOR MOST
LOCATIONS GIVEN THE OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS HAVE BEEN WARMER.  WE SEE NO
REAL CHANGE TODAY.

A ROUGH SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING DOES SHOW SOME
SORT OF BROAD ROTATION OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OFF THE NORTHWEST PART
OF THE YUCATAN...BUT THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DEEP CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH IT...AND THE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DONT REVEAL A WHOLE
LOT EITHER.  DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE WEST FURTHER AWAY FROM
OUR FORECAST AREA.  THE FURTHER WEST WE TAKE THE TRACK OF THE LOW...
THE FURTHER WEST THE DRYING ALOFT TO THE EAST WORKS IN FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.  FOR SEVERAL RUNS THE GFS AND ETA HAVE ADVERTISED
INCREASED SUBSIDENCE...DRYING...AND LOWER POPS BY MONDAY.  WE WILL
RELENT AND BACK DOWN THE POPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...ESPECIALLY TO THE
EAST AND NORTHEAST.  WITH LESS CONVECTION AND CLOUDCOVER...THIS WILL
RESULT IN SOMEWHAT WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

GRADIENT STILL MAINTAINING 15 TO 20 KT SYNOPTIC SCALE WINDS OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH 5 TO 7 FT SEAS CURRENTLY BEING REPORTED.
EVEN THOUGH WE ARE IN A NEAP ASTRONOMICAL TIDES...THE PERSISTENT
STRONGER SOUTHEASTERLY FETCH WILL KEEP TIDES RUNNING SOME 1 TO 2 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL.  THIS WARRANTS AT LEAST KEEPING THE COASTAL FLOOD WATCH
UP.  SEE NO EVIDENCE ATTM TO SUPPORT A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING RIGHT
NOW.  EVEN THOUGH DEVELOPMENT OVER THE GULF (SHOULD IT OCCUR) LOOKS
TO BE FURTHER WEST...GRADIENT WILL PROBABLY TIGHTEN UP A LITTLE
MORE OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS...RELAXING SOMEWHAT BY SUNDAY.  THIS
PATTERN SUPPORTS THE CONTINUATION OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR
TODAY.  OVERALL...WE REALLY DONT PLAN ON ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
WHAT WE HAVE OUT IN THE MARINE FORECAST RIGHT NOW.

.PRELIMINARY TEMPS / POPS...

MOBILE     90 74 90 74 / 70 30 40 20
PENSACOLA  89 76 89 76 / 60 30 40 20
DESTIN     88 77 88 77 / 60 30 40 20
EVERGREEN  90 72 92 70 / 60 30 30 20
WAYNESBORO 90 73 92 72 / 70 30 30 20
CAMDEN     90 71 92 70 / 60 30 30 20

.MOB ...
AL...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT ALZ063-064-GMZ630-650
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT GMZ630-650-670.
FL...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FLZ002-004-006-GMZ655
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT GMZ655-675.
MS...NONE.

05/GARMON

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-302000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
500 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

.DAY ONE...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND MOVE INLAND THROUGHOUT MOST OF
TODAY. WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...
AND PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH
SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS. ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.

STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE WAY TO DANGEROUS
RIP CURRENTS THROUGH TONIGHT. AS A RESULT A HIGH RISK FOR RIP
CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)

ALTHOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE ON
SUNDAY AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GULF
STRONG GUSTY WINDS UP TO 30 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO LIGHTNING AND
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER
STORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW AT THIS
TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND STORM SPOTTERS IS NOT EXPECTED.