Hail in Kansas, April 19, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
220 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2003

DAYS 1-2...
CONVECTION THIS MORNING DEVELOPING ALONG RETREATING DRY LINE WHICH
WAS WORKING ITS WAY INTO OUR EASTERN MOST CWA. HAVILAND AND LAMONT
PROFILERS BOTH NOW SHOWING WINDS BACKING TO THE S AND BEGINNING TO
INCREASE SUGGESTING MODELS ARE ON THE RIGHT TRACK WITH STRENGTHENING
LLJ AND AS A RESULT CONVECTION CONTINUING TO DEVELOP THROUGH DAYBREAK
ALONG THE NOSE OF THE LLJ JUST NORTH OF OUR BOUNDARY OUR SE CWA.
THEREFORE HAVE BUMPED POPS IN OUR SE INTO THE CATEGORICAL RANGE.
WITH ELEVATED CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2500 J/KG AND SHEAR PROFILE
HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT THIS MORNING WITH ISOLATED
STRONG WINDS.

85H CONV AND INSTAB REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY,
ESPECIALLY IN THE SE AS MAIN UPPER TROF CROSSES OUT OF THE TX
PANHANDLE INTO SRN KS. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL HOWEVER NOT
LOOKING AS GOOD AS THIS MORNING AS SHEAR WEAKENS AND BEST INSTAB AND
LIFT SHIFTS SOUTH INTO OKLAHOMA. DEEPENING LOW TO OUR SOUTH IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING SYSTEM TODAY WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE CWA. THEREFORE CURRENT WIND FORECAST STILL
LOOKING REASONABLE SO NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH HERE.

TONIGHT THIS SYSTEM SLIDES TO OUR EAST AND WILL KEEP THE TREND OF
TAPERING PCPN FROM WEST TO EAST. N/NW WINDS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AS
SKIES CLEAR. WITH DECREASING WINDS AND DRYER AIR MOVING INTO SW KS
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH LOWS BELOW GUIDANCE.

DAYS 3-7...
SHORT TERM CONCERNS HAVE LIMITED DETAILED EXAMINATION OF THE LATER
PERIODS. QUICK LOOK HOWEVER SUGGESTING AS SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE
PLAINS ON MONDAY, NW DOWNSLOPE FLOW STARTS TO DEVELOP. AS A RESULT
WILL TWEAK TEMPS UP BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS UPPER LVL S/W RIDGE
BUILDS INTO, THEN ACROSS THE PLAINS. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO THE
LATER PERIOD PLANNED.

.PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.

DDC 57 39 65 41 / 70 40 00 00
GCK 54 38 65 39 / 50 10 00 00
EHA 54 36 68 40 / 40 20 00 00
LBL 57 38 67 41 / 50 40 00 00
HYS 57 42 60 39 / 80 20 00 00
P28 65 42 64 44 / 90 60 00 00

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 8 AM (13UTC) FOR KSC007-033-047-
097-151-185

18

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-191000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
508 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE COMBINATION OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES, WINDY CONDITIONS AND
WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL PUT MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS IN THE
EXTREME FIRE DANGER CATEGORY TODAY. AS A RESULT OUTDOOR BURNING IS
DISCOURAGED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY SOUTHEAST OF A LINE
EXTENDING FROM SAINT JOHN TO NEAR MEADE. IN THIS AREA A FEW OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

18