Hail and Damaging Winds in Arkansas, April 19, 2003

MESOSCALE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA
925 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2003

AT 9PM THE COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR SOUTH COFFEYVILLE TO
STROUD.  THE DRY LINE EXTENDS SOUTH FROM NEAR DOWNTOWN TULSA TO 25
MILES WEST OF DURANT.

ENOUGH CONVERGENCE HAS REMAINED ALONG THE DRY LINE TO FIRE NEW
STORMS WEST OF DURANT.  CAPES HAVE REMAINED AROUND 2000 J/KG NEAR
THE DRY LINE IN IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AND DEEP SHEAR REMAINS
STRONG...SO THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THESE NEW STORMS TO BECOME
SUPERCELLS AS THEY MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.  SURFACE WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH WITH TIME...REDUCING THE TORNADO THREAT...BUT THIS
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

THE ATMOSPHERE HAS DESTABILIZED ENOUGH IN WESTERN ARKANSAS TO
CONTINUE THE SEVERE THREAT AND THE SPC HAS EXTENDED A WATCH INTO THE
FIRST TIER OF COUNTIES.  THE CELL IN HASKELL CO. CONTINUES TO ROTATE
AND THIS WILL PERSIST AS THE CELL CROSSES THE RIVER VALLEY AND
THROUGH THE ENHANCED SR-HELICITY.

WITH THE STORMS EXPANDING ALONG A LINE FROM FAYETTEVILLE TO
MCALESTER...THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT MAY BE DISRUPTED
AND THIS MIGHT REDUCE THE BACK BUILDING OF STORMS FROM KANSAS.  WE
WILL MONITOR.

FORECAST ID= 8

.TSA...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>058-060>076-201000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
130 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2003

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PROBABLE ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN
   OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...

...SUPERCELLS THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
   EVENING WITH THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES...

ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AHEAD OF A DRY LINE AND MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.
THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL INTERSECT WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LEFT OVER
FROM EARLIER CONVECTION. THIS WILL PRODUCE A THREAT FOR LARGE
DAMAGING HAIL AND TORNADOES.

RESIDENTS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR
FORECASTS THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE LATEST UPDATES.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WARNING PROBABILITIES CAN BE FOUND IN
THE OUTLOOK SECTION AT: WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA. GIVEN PROBABILITIES
REPRESENT THE POTENTIAL FOR A WARNING TO BE ISSUED AT YOUR LOCATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY
AS A STRONG UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.

.SPOTTER / EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...SPOTTER
ACTIVATION WILL BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON.  A TORNADO WATCH IS
ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA
THIS AFTERNOON. EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL SHOULD CONTINUE TO
CLOSELY MONITOR FORECASTS FOR ADDITIONAL UPDATES.

ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT...
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA

GW

ARZ001-010-019-029-OKZ049-053-055>058-060>063-065>076-200700-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
853 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
#135 UNTIL 200 AM CDT SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS:

IN ARKANSAS THIS WATCH INCLUDES 4 COUNTIES...
IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS:

BENTON                CRAWFORD              WASHINGTON

IN WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS:

SEBASTIAN

IN OKLAHOMA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 22 COUNTIES...
IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA:

CHEROKEE              MUSKOGEE              OKFUSKEE
SEQUOYAH

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA:

ADAIR                 CRAIG                 DELAWARE
MAYES                 NOWATA                OKMULGEE
OTTAWA                ROGERS                TULSA
WAGONER               WASHINGTON

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA:

CHOCTAW               HASKELL               LATIMER
LE FLORE              MCINTOSH              PITTSBURG
PUSHMATAHA

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF ANTLERS...BARTLESVILLE...BENTONVILLE...
BROKEN ARROW...CEDARVILLE...CLAREMORE...CLAYTON...EUFAULA...
FAYETTEVILLE...FORT SMITH...HUGO...JAY...MCALESTER...MIAMI...
MOUNTAINBURG...MUSKOGEE...NATURAL DAM...NOWATA...OKEMAH...OKMULGEE...
POTEAU...PRYOR...ROGERS...SALLISAW...SAND SPRINGS...SILOAM SPRINGS...
SPRINGDALE...STIGLER...STILWELL...TAHLEQUAH...TULSA...VAN BUREN...
VINITA...WAGONER AND WILBURTON.