Tornadoes and Hail in Oklahoma, April 19, 2003

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA
330 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2003

BIG STORMS STARTING TO FIRE SOUTHWEST OF TULSA JUST AHEAD OF THE
DRYLINE. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME DANGEROUS
SUPERCELLS SINCE THEY HAVE FORMED IN AN ENVIRONMENT WHERE LOW LEVEL
WINDS HAVE REMAINED BACKED AND TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE 80S.
THE PDS TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF EASTERN OK UNTIL 9 PM HAS
THIS SITUATION COVERED WELL.

EXPECT THE ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT AS
THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVES BY AND DRIER AIR SLIDES IN. WILL GO WITH
LIKELY POPS IN EASTERN ZONES THIS EVENING AND END RAIN CHANCES FROM
THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALL ZONES WILL HAVE POSSIBLY SEVERE WORDING
FOR THIS EVENING.

QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH NEXT CHANCE OF
RAIN CENTERED AROUND WEDNESDAY.

TUL   52   69   47   71  / 40    5    0    5
FSM   55   72   47   73  / 40    5    0    5
MLC   53   69   46   73  / 20    0    0    5
BVO   49   67   46   70  / 50    5    0    5
FYV   52   65   42   66  / 60    5    0    5
BYV   54   67   44   67  / 70   10    0    5
MKO   54   68   46   72  / 40    5    0    5
MIO   51   64   44   67  / 60    5    0    5
F10   53   68   45   72  / 30    0    0    5
HHW   54   72   48   73  / 30    0    0    5

FORECAST ID= 9

.TSA...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>058-060>076-201000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
130 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2003

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PROBABLE ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN
   OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...

...SUPERCELLS THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
   EVENING WITH THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES...

ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AHEAD OF A DRY LINE AND MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.
THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL INTERSECT WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LEFT OVER
FROM EARLIER CONVECTION. THIS WILL PRODUCE A THREAT FOR LARGE
DAMAGING HAIL AND TORNADOES.

RESIDENTS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR
FORECASTS THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE LATEST UPDATES.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WARNING PROBABILITIES CAN BE FOUND IN
THE OUTLOOK SECTION AT: WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA. GIVEN PROBABILITIES
REPRESENT THE POTENTIAL FOR A WARNING TO BE ISSUED AT YOUR LOCATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY
AS A STRONG UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.

.SPOTTER / EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...SPOTTER
ACTIVATION WILL BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON.  A TORNADO WATCH IS
ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA
THIS AFTERNOON. EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL SHOULD CONTINUE TO
CLOSELY MONITOR FORECASTS FOR ADDITIONAL UPDATES.

ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT...
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA

GW

OKZ049-053>076-200200-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
226 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED TORNADO WATCH #132 UNTIL
900 PM CDT SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS:

IN OKLAHOMA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 25 COUNTIES...
IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA:

CHEROKEE              MUSKOGEE              OKFUSKEE
SEQUOYAH

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA:

ADAIR                 CRAIG                 CREEK
DELAWARE              MAYES                 NOWATA
OKMULGEE              OSAGE                 OTTAWA
PAWNEE                ROGERS                TULSA
WAGONER               WASHINGTON

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA:

CHOCTAW               HASKELL               LATIMER
LE FLORE              MCINTOSH              PITTSBURG
PUSHMATAHA

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF ANTLERS...BARTLESVILLE...BRISTOW...BROKEN
ARROW...CLAREMORE...CLAYTON...EUFAULA...HUGO...JAY...MCALESTER...
MIAMI...MUSKOGEE...NOWATA...OKEMAH...OKMULGEE...PAWHUSKA...PAWNEE...
POTEAU...PRYOR...SALLISAW...SAND SPRINGS...STIGLER...STILWELL...
TAHLEQUAH...TULSA...VINITA...WAGONER AND WILBURTON.