Hail and Damaging Winds in Indiana, April 4, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
320 PM EST FRI APR 4 2003

PUBLIC DISCUSSION...

SHORT TODAY DUE TO MULTIPLE WEATHER CHALLENGES. CONVECTION ACROSS
AREA AND UPSTREAM IN IL ALONG FRONT AND AHEAD OF STRONG UPPER
DYNAMICS. LATEST SPC DISCUSSION WILL GIVE MORE DETAILS. TOR THREAT
INCREASING ACROSS IL AND NEW MODERATE RISK COMES RIGHT TO SOUTHWEST
PART OF CWA. WILL HAVE SVR WORDING IN MOST COUNTIES EXCEPT FAR NORTH
WHERE MIXED PRECIPITATION COMES INTO PLAY. COLD EAST FLOW HAS KEPT
TEMPS IN MID 30S. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SFC TEMPS COULD DIP TO
LOWER 30S BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS. COLLABORATED WITH GRR AND DTX
AND HAVE DECIDED TO MENTION FREEZING RAIN IN FAR NORTH AND NORTHEAST
AND NOT ISSUE AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH
TIMING PCPN ENDING AND COLD AIR ARRIVING. THIS MATCHES WELL AS
TRANSITION ZONE BUT AREA WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY. SURFACE LOW TRACKS
ACROSS CWA TONIGHT...BRINGING WARM AIR NORTH AHEAD OF LOW.
HOWEVER...COLDER AIR FOLLOWS AFTER MIDNIGHT SO DECIDED NOT TO
MENTION RISING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT IN THE SOUTH. NEXT PROBLEM
WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ETA MUCH COOLER THAN GFS AND WOULD
INDICATE MAINLY A SNOW EVENT. GFS WARMER AND CLOSER TO ECMWF. WILL
CONTINUE COMPROMISE AND GO WITH RAIN OR SNOW MIX AND MATCH
SURROUNDING SITES BY BUMPING TO LIKELY CATEGORY. THIS WILL NEED TO
BE WATCHED AS PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS COULD BE RATHER LARGE.

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR TUESDAY THRU FRIDAY...

FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS WHETHER OR NOT TO TAKE
OUT THE PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY. 12Z AVN & MRF ARE INDICATING THAT
TUESDAY WILL BE DRY AND PARTLY CLOUDY INSTEAD OF THE PRECIP AND
CLOUDS THAT WERE IN THE FORECAST, WHILE THE CANADIAN IS STILL
SHOWING PRECIP. HOWEVER, THIS IS THE FIRST RUN INDICATING DRY AND
PRECIP HAS BEEN IN THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY EVER SINCE TUESDAY
APPEARED IN THE FORECAST. WITH MORE CURRENT MODELS SHOWING TUE DRY
AND SURROUNDING OFFICES GOING THAT WAY, WILL CHANGE TUE TO DRY AND
PARTLY CLOUDY. ON TUESDAY, THE LOW IS MOVING OFF OF THE EAST COAST
AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS MOVING INTO THE CWA. THIS HIGH IS OVER THE
CWA FOR WED AND THU WITH LITTLE MOISTURE THESE TWO DAYS WILL BE DRY
AND THE MRF IS INDICATING A CHANCE FOR PRECIP ON FRIDAY. MRF IS
SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING OVER THE CWA FRIDAY WITH GOOD
MOISTURE. TEMPS WERE LOOKING GOOD. ONLY MODIFIED A LOW/HIGH TEMP
HERE A LITTLE BIT. NOTHING MAJOR. MEX NUMBERS WERE NOT THAT FAR OFF
FROM OURS AND SURROUNDING FORECASTS EITHER.

.IWX...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.

LASHLEY/LOTHAMER

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-051000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
507 AM EST FRI APR 4 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN INDIANA...NORTHWEST
OHIO AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT...MAINLY SOUTH OF A MONTICELLO INDIANA TO
OTTAWA OHIO LINE. THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS
FROM 200 PM TO 800 PM. STORMS WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST OR EAST AT 30
MPH AND MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING EAST ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA
AND OHIO TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE THE TRIGGERING MECHANISM FOR THE
THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY... POSSIBLY CAUSING SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.