Heavy Snow in Illinois, February 23 to 24, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
130 PM CST SUN FEB 23 2003

INITIAL FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE SNOW AMOUNTS TONIGHT.

STRONG MID LEVEL S/W MOVING THROUGH EASTERN OK WITH ASSOCIATED LOW
PRESSURE MOVING INTO EXTREME SE OK EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO RACE NE INTO OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. SNOWS ACROSS
OK/KS/MO WILL SPREAD NE INTO IL THIS EVENING AIDED BY STRONG OMEGA
AND STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA FEEDING INTO SRN IL AHEAD OF SYSTEM.
DYNAMICS MAX OUT RIGHT AROUND 06Z AND THEN DROP OFF QUICKLY.
HEAVIEST SNOW STILL LOOKS TO BE SETTING UP SOUTH OF I-70. 3-4 G/KG
MIXING RATIOS ON 290K SFC ADVECTING INTO SE IL. GIVEN VERY RAPID
MOVEMENT...3-5 INCH ACCUMULATIONS STILL LOOK RSBL WITH A FEW HOURS
OF SNOWFALL RATES WHICH COULD REACH AN INCH AN HOUR.

GFS CONTINUING TO ADVERTISE A WEAK S/W EJECTING FROM WRN TROF LATE
TUES NIGHT. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOWER CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS COULD OFFER ANOTHER CHC OF LIGHT SNOW BEGINNING LATE TUES
NIGHT. STRONGER S/W LIFTS NE TOWARD AREA FOR WED. THIS SHOULD BE THE
BEST CHC FOR ANOTHER SNOW WED LINGERING INTO THURS.

DAYS 4 THROUGH 7...
SRN STREAM TO REMAIN ACTIVE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES EJECT EAST FROM A WRN TROF. MRF AND NCEP
ENSEMBLE PRODUCTS INDICATING NO REAL ORGANIZED PCPN FOR CENT IL
AFTER THE MIDWEEK SNOW CHCS MOVE OUT EARLY THURS. ALTHOUGH CANT RULE
OUT SOME MINOR NEAR TRACE EVENTS FOR LIGHT SNOW WITH THIS PATTERN...
WILL KEEP FCST DRY INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS MAIN SUPPLY OF MOISTURE
REMAINS CUT OFF. MAIN AFFECTS WITH THIS PATTERN WILL BE TO KEEP
TEMPS BELOW NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.

THANKS FOR COORDINATION LSX/IND.

.ILX...SNOW ADVISORY TONIGHT FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM SHELBYVILLE TO PARIS.

FRIEDERS

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-241200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1055 AM CST SUN FEB 23 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A SNOW ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH
OF A SHELBYVILLE TO PARIS LINE. SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL
ILLINOIS THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. IN THE ADVISORY
AREA...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS NORTH. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
TOWARDS SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING.

ANY SNOWFALL REPORTS FROM OUR COOP OR SPOTTER NETWORK WOULD BE
GREATLY APPRECIATED LATER TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN ACROSS THE STATE IN THE WAKE OF THE
SNOW MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES...AT LEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
WILL BE SOME 15 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS...AND HIGHS IN THE 20S.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&
THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGIC
AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:

HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/ILX (ALL IN LOWER CASE)

PLAHMER