Damaging Wind in Georgia, August 28, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
319 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2003

CWFA TO REMAIN UNDER A VERY WEAKLY FORCED...WEAKLY SHEARED BUT HIGH
INSTABILITY ENVIRONMENT CONTAINING DECENT THETA-E LAPSE RATES...WHICH
LEADS TO AN ISOLATED PULSE SVR THREAT INTO THE EVENING HOURS. PLAN
TO CARRY SCATTERED POPS UNTIL MIDNIGHT WITH POP GRID GRADIENT HIGHER
FROM WEST TO EAST...AS ONE GETS FURTHER AWAY FROM THE MOUNTAINS...
FOCUSING MECHANISMS BECOME HARDER TO FIND.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE UPPER RIDGE POSITION IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY
WITH THE ATMOSPHERE ONLY MARGINALLY LESS UNSTABLE THAN TODAY. A
CONTINUED WEAKLY FORCED ENVIRONMENT WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED DIURNAL
DEEP CONVECTION ACRS THE MTNS WITH LESS COVERAGE ONCE AGAIN
FURTHER TOWARD THE PIEDMONT.

UPPER FLOW BECOMES LESS ANTI-CYCLONICALLY CURVED ON SATURDAY
AS DEEPER RH....COINCIDENT WITH AN APPROACHING FRONTAL ZONE...
INCREASES...MAINLY ACRS THE WEST. ALL THIS SHOULD ADD UP TO MORE
TSTM CVRG CWFA WIDE.

IN THE EXTENDED...NOT SURE I BELIEVE ETA DEPICTION OF BACKDOORING
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT ACRS NC SUNDAY MORNING...SO WILL GO
WITH GFS SOLUTION OF STALLING BNDRY WEST OF THE MTNS ON DAY 3
AND CONTINUE IT ROUGHLY IN THIS POSITION ON DAY 4.

DAYS 5-7 WILL FEATURE GRADUALLY FALLING HEIGHTS OVER THE CWFA
IN RESPONSE TO AN EASTWARD TRANSLATING POSITIVE TILT S/WV WHILE
AN AXIS OF DEEPER RH LINGERS IN OUR VCNTY. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND ABOVE CLIMO POPS EACH DAY.

FCSTID = 55

GSP 70 89 71 88 / 30 30 30 30
AND 71 90 71 88 / 30 30 30 30
CLT 71 91 71 89 / 30 20 20 30
HKY 69 89 69 87 / 30 30 30 30
AVL 67 85 67 83 / 40 40 40 40

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-281145-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
555 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...MAINLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE
STRONGEST STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK AS A COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. A
FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...THOUGH EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL
BECOME AN INCREASING THREAT IF THE COLD FRONT DOES NOT MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

MCAVOY

GAZ028-282245-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
559 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2003

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL OVER HART
COUNTY GEORGIA...

AT 559 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF HARTWELL...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH. THIS THUNDERSTORM WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HAIL THE
SIZE OF PEAS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS OF 1
TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN PER HOUR THROUGH 645 PM. MOST AFFECTED WILL BE
THE AREA FROM BOWERSVILLE TO REED CREEK.

HG