Flash Flood and Hail in Kansas, August 28, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
236 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2003

DAYS 1-2...
25H JET STILL DIGGING SOUTH JUST WEST OF UPPER LOW LOCATED NEAR THE
GULF OF ALASKA. AS THIS LOW DEEPENS THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
AMPLIFY OVER WRN CANADA THUS THE FRONT SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM
CHARGING SOUTH. MODELS SHOWING STILL SOME DISCREPANCY IN
TIMING BUT GIVEN THE TREND THAT GFS UNDERESTIMATES THE SPEED OF
THESE COLD FRONTS AND THE EXPECTED CONVECTION THAT WILL DEVELOP
LATER TODAY ALONG THIS FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE QUICKER ETA MODEL.
AS A RESULT WILL GO WITH A LEE TROF CROSSING OUR CWA TODAY
FOLLOWED BY FROPA EARLY FRIDAY.  THE FRONT THEN EXPECTED TO TO ENTER
OK FRIDAY NIGHT AS OUR 1028 HIGH SETTLES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
WITH THIS IN MIND CURRENT FORECAST TRENDS FOR BOTH TEMPS AND PCPN
LOOKS ON TRACK. FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY STALL OUT AS UPPER TROF
CURRENTLY LOCATED AROUND 40N 130W MAKES IT WAY EASTWARD TOWARDS
COLORADO. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN FALLING PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN
PLAINS AND FGEN NEAR SW KS SO WILL CONTINUE CHC POPS FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. ALONG WITH THE CHC FOR PCPN, SKIES APPEAR TO REMAIN
CLOUDY THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD HOLD TEMPS DOWN AND
WILL THEREFORE TRIM A FEW DEGREES OFF CURRENT FORECAST OTHERWISE NO
MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS PLANNED.

AS FOR PCPN TONIGHT WILL INITIALLY CONCENTRATE ALONG OUR FIRST
BOUNDARY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WHICH WILL BISECT
THE CWA FROM SW TO NE. WND CONV ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND INSTAB AS
CONVECTIVE TEMP IS REACHED. BEST LIFT HOWEVER REMAINS WITH THE FRONT
IN OUR NRN CWA SO WILL KEEP MY LIKELY POPS GOING BUT SHIFT THEM
FURTHER NORTH INITIALLY, THEN MOVE THEM SOUTH WITH THE FRONT EARLY
FRIDAY.

DAYS 3-7...
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK. WILL TWEAK POPS
FOR SATURDAY AS NEEDED IN OUR NW TO BLEND IN BETTER WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES.

.PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.

DDC 94 65 79 57 / 20 60 60 50
GCK 92 63 78 54 / 40 50 40 40
EHA 93 62 80 56 / 30 40 40 50
LBL 95 65 80 57 / 30 60 60 50
HYS 95 64 81 55 / 40 50 30 30
P28 97 69 84 60 / 00 60 60 50

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.

 18/02

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-291000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
500 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS
TODAY AS A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVE EAST OF THE AREA
THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE AREA BY THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AND THESE WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL DEVELOP LATER
TODAY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA ON FRIDAY
WHERE IT WILL BECOME STATIONARY. THIS WILL PROVIDE AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
KANSAS FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT, RAINFALL TOTALS OF
ONE TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

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