Hail and Damaging Winds in Wisconsin, August 28, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
225 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2003

THE FIRST LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING ACROSS
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN...MAINLY FROM ANTIGO TO IRON MOUNTAIN MICHIGAN
AS OF 2 PM. THIS ELEVATED ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT
NOW MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE GREEN BAY CWA.
MEANWHILE...COLD FRONT IS STILL ACROSS EASTERN MINNESOTA AND WAS
LOCATED WEST OF DULUTH TO NEAR ST CLOUD (MINNESOTA) TO NEAR SIOUX
CITY IOWA. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER FROM ABOVE MENTION CONVECTION WAS
BEGINNING TO CLEAR AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THEREFORE EXPECT CONVECTION
TO DEVELOP ALONG COLD. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY TEMPERATURES IN THE
MIDDLE 80S TO NEAR 90 AND DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S TO AROUND 70
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA...AND
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. SPC CONTINUES TO LEAVE AREA IN SLIGHT
RISK...THEREFORE THINK A FEW STORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING
WINDS.

OTHERWISE...MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
ON FRIDAY. PERUSAL OF BUFKIT AND NGM/ETA TIME CROSS SECTIONS
INDICATED ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. WILL ADJUST TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES TOMORROW
WITH...WITH GREATEST COOLING OVER THE NORTH. THE SKY WILL BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT. ETA MODEL IS FORECASTING SURFACE DEWPOINTS
IN THE UPPER 30S. WILL MENTION LOWS OF 37 TO 43 OVER THE NORTH WITH
PATCHY FROST IN LOW LYING AREAS.

OTHERWISE...A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LABOR DAY
WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ON
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. NEW MEX GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE WARMER THAN
A FEW DAYS AGO...SO WILL TAKE BLEND OF MEX GUIDANCE AND ADJACENT
OFFICE FORECASTS FOR HIGHS DURING THE PERIOD. DID GO SLIGHTLY LOWER
THAN WFO MARQUETTE AND MUCH LOWER THAN WFO DLH FOR LOWS DURING THIS
PERIOD.

.GRB...NONE.

ECKBERG
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRB

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-291815-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
115 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE AFTERNOON HOURS. SOME COULD
PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SOME COULD PRODUCE STRONG
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON LAKE MICHIGAN BY THIS AFTERNOON...
RESULTING IN DIFFICULT CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT. THE WINDS WILL
BECOMING NORTHWEST AND REMAIN QUITE GUSTY AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES
TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS
IN THE GREEN BAY FORECAST AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

RDM
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