Hail in Georgia, April 30, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
325 PM EDT WED APR 30 2003

SH AND TS ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS AND
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OF NC. EXPECT THAT THE ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE FURTHER EAST AND WILL REMAIN INTO THE EVENING. SEVERE
CHANCES STILL LOOK GOOD AS PARAMETERS REMAIN FAVORABLE...IN
FACT...DEWPOINTS HAVE REMAINED HIGHER THAN EXPECTED RESULTING IN
CAPES AROUND 3000 J/KG AT PEAK HEATING. WILL TREND POPS FROM LIKELY
OVER THE NRN MTNS DOWN TO 30S EAST OF CLT. AFTER MIDNIGHT...WILL
DECREASE POPS TO SCHC AND WILL ADD PATCHY FOG. FOG COULD BECOME
DENSE IN SPOTS AS MIN WILL SURPASS CROSSOVER TEMPS.

FORECAST CHANGES A BIT FOR THU AS MODELS HAVE ADOPTED THE COASTAL
LOW OFF THE SE. WILL FOLLOW MAINLY THE ETA ON THIS FEATURE AS AGAIN
THE GFS IS OVER DEVELOPING THE LOW. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE LOW
WILL ADVECT IN MORE STABLE AIR OVER THE NE CWA...BUT AREAS IN THE
WEST WILL FEEL LITTLE DIFFERENCE. WILL GO SCHC OVER THE NRN PIEDMONT
OF NC AND MAINTAIN CHC OVER THE REST OF THE CWA. WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE COASTAL SYSTEM AS THE MAIN LOW...THE COLD FRONT
THAT WAS PROGGED FOR FRI HAS SLOWED. IN FACT...FRONT MAY STALL OVER
THE CWA FOR SAT...WITH ETA HOLDING ONTO SOME CAPE. WILL DELAY ONSET
OF PRECIP TO FRI AFTERNOON AND HOLD ONTO MENTION UNTIL MIDNIGHT. DUE
TO THIS CHANGE WILL LEAN AGAINST ADDING POPS TO THE SAT PERIOD...BUT
WILL INCREASE POPS TO SCHC TO TREND INTO THE DIRECTION OF MENTION.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RIDGE DOWN AS IT MOVES PAST TO THE
NORTH ON SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY. GUIDANCE IS FOLLOWED CLOSELY HERE.
ONCE THE HIGH IS OFFSHORE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND A WEAK WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH...MOISTURE SHOULD BEGIN TO RETURN. WILL INTRODUCE A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS FOR THE
AFTERNOON. WITH THE MOISTENING RETURN FLOW...HAVE RAISED LOW TEMP
MONDAY NIGHT BY A FEW DEGREES ACROSS SC/NE GA. BY TUESDAY...WE
SHOULD BE SET UP FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION WITH
THE HIGH OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND A SURFACE FRONT TO THE WEST.
THE ONLY REAL CHANGE HERE IS TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING BASED ON THE POSITION OF THE COLD FRONT
DEPICTED BY HPC AT 12Z WEDNESDAY.

FCSTID =   16
GSP   58  79  59  82 /  50  30  30  40
AND   59  80  59  83 /  50  30  30  40
CLT   57  81  59  82 /  40  30  30  40
HKY   58  78  58  79 /  50  20  20  40
AVL   56  75  55  78 /  50  30  30  40

.GSP...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

NED/MOORE

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-301200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
603 AM EDT WED APR 30 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...

A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY. FOR
FURTHER DETAILS...PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST SEVERE WEATHER
OUTLOOK...SPSGSP...ISSUED BY THIS OFFICE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

EXPECT A DAILY CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

NCZ036-037-057-301945-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
249 PM EDT WED APR 30 2003

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT
OF NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. THROUGH 4 PM...STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE NORTH AT 10 TO 15 MPH ACROSS ROWAN COUNTY
AND DAVIE COUNTY. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE MARBLE SIZED
HAIL...WIND GUSTS OF 50 MPH...AND TORRENTIAL RAIN. SHOULD THESE
STORMS DEVELOP ANY FURTHER...A WARNING MIGHT BE NEEDED.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION.

MOORE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG SC
421 PM EDT WED APR 30 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

415 PM     MOUNT MITCHELL            SC   1.00 INCH HAIL
04/30/03   YANCEY                         QUARTER SIZE HAIL
                                          COVERING GROUND.

KRENTZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG SC
440 PM EDT WED APR 30 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

335 PM     7 E MOCKSVILLE            NC   1.00 INCH HAIL
04/30/03   DAVIE                          LETTER CARRIERS WITH THE
                                          POSTAL SERVICE REPORTED
                                          SEVERAL INSTANCES OF HAIL
                                          BETWEEN DIME AND QUARTER
                                          SIZE BETWEEN MOCKSVILLE
                                          AND FORK CHURCH.

BURRUS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG SC
453 PM EDT WED APR 30 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

452 PM     5 NE SYLVA                NC   .75 INCH HAIL
04/30/03   JACKSON                        SKYWARN SPOTTER REPORTS
                                          DIME SIZE HAIL.

HG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG SC
559 PM EDT WED APR 30 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

433 PM     CELO                      NC   1.00 INCH HAIL
04/30/03   YANCEY                         THREE HAIL EVENTS WITH
                                          QUARTER SIZE TO PEA SIZE
                                          HAIL.  STRONG WINDS AND
                                          2.50 RAINFALL.

TJB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG SC
605 PM EDT WED APR 30 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

600 PM     MT MITCHELL ST PARK       NC   1.00 INCH HAIL
04/30/03   YANCEY                         RELAYED BY BLUE RIDGE
                                          PKWY DISPATCH.

JAT