Hail in Florida, May 24, 2003

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
235 PM EDT SAT MAY 24 2003

SHORT-TERM...LATEST ETA TAKES ELONGATED AREA OF VORTICITY IN THE
EASTERN GULF AND INTENSIFIES IT RAPIDLY ACROSS CWA. THIS IS A LITTLE
OVERDONE AND A LITTLE TOO FAR TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...VORT MAX WILL
ACT AS CONVECTIVE TRIGGER ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING.

SUN-MON...BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE THE RULE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS UPPER TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN STATES STAYS PUT...REINFORCED BY
DIVING SHORT WAVE ON MONDAY. SUNDAY LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR SHOWER AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE EAST COAST AS WEAK SW
FLOW AND OKEECHOBEE BOUNDARY COLLIDE WITH SEA BREEZE. SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AXIS SETS UP TO THE SOUTH ON MONDAY. AIR MASS WILL DRY
OUT...ESPECIALLY IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. SLIGHT WARMING IN THE
MID LEVELS COMBINED WITH WEAK SUBSIDENCE WILL INHIBIT CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...EXCEPT ACROSS SOUTHEAST ZONES WHERE SLIGHTLY DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE. WILL STRATIFY POPS 10 VOLUSIA TO 20
MARTIN AND ST LUCIE.

TUE-THU...BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY
POSITIONED ALONG EAST COAST AND INCREASED MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICS
TUE AND WED. COOLER 850 MB TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS
FOR THU.

FRI-SAT...00Z GFS INDICATES SIGNIFICANT DRYING TAKING PLACE LATE IN
THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WILL STILL KEEP ISOLATED CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST GIVEN WET CLIMATOLOGY.

MARINE...WINDS REMAIN LIGHT ACROSS THE WATERS AND WILL CONTINUE THAT
WAY THROUGH THE PERIOD. WW III GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS LITTLE
VARIABILITY IN THE SEAS THIS WEEK. SCA CONDITIONS NOT EXPECTED ANYTIME
SOON.

...PRELIMINARY CCF...
DAB BB 069/089 070/090 068 332
MCO BB 071/090 071/091 070 332
MLB BB 073/088 071/089 069 332

.MLB...NONE.

PUBLIC/MARINE...HIRSCH
AVIATION/FIRE...CRISTALDI

AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147-
242000-

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
6 AM EDT SAT MAY 24 2003

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT:

A FRONTAL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE AREA
TODAY. MOIST SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH WINDS COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. STORM COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO BE HIGHEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING HOURS.

SOME STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG...PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING...HEAVY
RAIN AND WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FROM THE INLAND
AREAS. DANGEROUS CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 35
KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS. BOATERS WHO PLAN ON
BEING OVER OPEN WATER SHOULD KEEP AN EYE TO THE SKY AND BE PREPARED
TO TAKE PROTECTIVE MEASURES SHOULD A STORM APPROACH YOUR AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ONCE AGAIN ON SUNDAY. ON MEMORIAL DAY AND
TUESDAY ISOLATED STORMS ARE FORECAST. THEN AN INCREASE IN AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY.

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...GO TO
WWW.WEATHER.GOV AND CLICK ON EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

JP

FLZ054-059-242145-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
445 PM EDT SAT MAY 24 2003

...STRONG STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH OVER
INDIAN RIVER COUNTY...ST. LUCIE COUNTY...

AT 440 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG LIGHTNING STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH
OVER LAKEWOOD PARK...ABOUT 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF FORT PIERCE. THE
STORM WAS MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM WHICH MAY EXPERIENCE STRONG WINDS
INCLUDE FORT PIERCE...VERO BEACH HIGHLANDS...AND QUEENS COVE.

IF THE STORM BECOMES SEVERE...A WARNING WILL BE ISSUED.