Tornadoes and Flash Flood in Texas, May 24, 2003

SOUTH PLAINS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
250 PM CDT SAT 24 MAY 2003

DAY ONE...
AN 5H RIDGE WAS CENTERED ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH A DOWN
STREAM 5H TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. A LOW
AMPLITUDE SHORTER WAVE LENGTH TROUGH WAS LOCATED ACROSS NORTHEAST NM
AND SOUTHEAST CO. A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. A SURFACE TROUGH WAS DEEPENING ACROSS THE
WESTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWFA. AT 200 PM SURFACE WINDS WERE BACKING
TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN COUNTIES.

DEEP GULF MOISTURE CONTINUED ACROSS MOST OF WEST TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON HEATING COMBINED WITH SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL CAUSE NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL COUNTIES OF THE CWFA. THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
CONGEAL INTO AN MCS AND MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWFA THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN NM MAY ALSO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE CWFA LATER TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SOME OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH SEVERE LIMITS...GIVEN CAPES AOA 1800
J/KG AND DIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR. ALTHOUGH WEAK FLOW AT MID AND UPPER
LEVELS WILL LIMIT DEGREE TO WHICH STORMS WILL INTENSIFY. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SEVERE WILL BE WITH ANY ORGANIZED MCS LATER THIS EVENING.
THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE PENNY TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND SEVERE
SURFACE WIND GUSTS. I WILL GO WITH 60 AND 70 POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CWFA TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

THE COLD FRONT OVER THE TEXAS PNHDL WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE CWFA LATE
TONIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL KEEP
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE CWFA ON SUNDAY.
UPSLOPE FLOW NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CAUSE THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN NM. THESE STORMS WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWFA LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
I WILL KEEP SCATTERED POPS THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OF RAIN BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FCSTID = 20

DAYS 2 THROUGH 7...
RAIN FROM MESOSCALE SYSTEMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
EAST/NORTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW IN WEAKLY CAPPED ATMOSPHERE AND SOME
SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING FROM SOUTHWEST WITH CUTOFF UPPER LOW
WEST OF EL PASO ENHANCING LIFT AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES. WEAKNESS
IN UPPER FLOW CONTINUES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH STILL VERY MOIST
LOW LEVELS. INSTABILITY AXIS IS PROGGED TO SHIFT FARTHER SOUTH AND
WEST MONDAY...WITH SW ZONES CLOSER TO ACTION...WHILE NE ZONES LOOK
DRIER BEING CLOSER TO SURFACE RIDGE AXIS. STILL LOOKS AS IF RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE PRETTY GOOD THROUGH TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY...HIGH
AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH NORTHERLY UPPER FLOW INCREASING OVER
WEST TEXAS SO RAIN CHANCES DECREASING...AND EVEN FURTHER THURSDAY
WITH UPPER RIDGE MOVING EAST INTO CENTRAL PLAINS. SHOULD WARM BACK
TO NEAR OR ABOVE 90 DEGREES LATE IN WEEK WITH A SUBSIDENT...DRIER
ATMOSPHERE. FCSTID = 06

.LBB...NONE.

TXZ021>044-250000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1142 AM CDT SAT MAY 24 2003

THIS IS A HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...

CONVECTIVE

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EXTREME
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND LOW ROLLING PLAINS.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
SOUTH PLAINS...EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND LOW ROLLING
PLAINS. AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THUNDERSTORMS EARLIER THIS
MORNING AND DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.
STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LATE EVENING AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH LOCALIZED RAINFALL
AMOUNTS TO AROUND 1.00 INCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TXZ021>044-242130-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
340 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2003

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
NUMBER 427 UNTIL 900 PM CDT. THIS WATCH INCLUDES BUT IS NOT LIMITED
TO THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

PARMER...CASTRO...SWISHER...BRISCOE...HALL...CHILDRESS...BAILEY...
LAMB...HALE...FLOYD...MOTLEY...COTTLE...COCHRAN...HOCKLEY...LUBBOCK..
CROSBY...DICKENS...KING...YOAKUM...TERRY...LYNN...GARZA...KENT...AND
STONEWALL.

SOME COMMUNITIES INCLUDED ARE...

FRIONA...DIMMITT...TULIA...MEMPHIS...CHILDRESS...MULESHOE...
LITTLEFIELD...PLAINVIEW...FLOYDADA...PADUCAH...MORTON...LEVELLAND...
LUBBOCK...CROSBYTON...GUTHRIE...BROWNFIELD...TAHOKA...POST...
ASPERMONT.

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PEOPLE IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS.

TXZ021>044-250400-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
453 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2003

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS CANCELED A PORTION OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 429.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

BRISCOE....CASTRO...CROSBY...GARZA...LAMB...LYNN...HALE...FLOYD
...COCHRAN...HOCKLEY...LUBBOCK...SWISHER...TERRY AND YOAKUM

HALL...CHILDRESS...MOTLEY..
.COTTLEDICKENS...KING...TERRY...KENT...AND STONEWALL.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES:

HALL...CHILDRESS...MOTLEY...COTTLE...DICKENS...KING...KENT AND
STONEWALL.