Tornado and Flash Flood in Texas, May 24 to 25, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
315 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2003

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER NORTH TEXAS THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND LARGE TROUGH LINGERS
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY.  EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO FORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS
WEAK WAVES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW INTERACT WITH MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIR ALREADY IN PLACE.  THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE ENHANCED
LATE TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND A LOW
LEVEL JET SET UP.  MOST FAVORED AREA FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
NEAR THE RED RIVER.  STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS.  HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR STORM REDEVELOPMENT ON THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL
WARRANT THE MENTION OF SOME HEAVY RAIN.  A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME
SEVERE WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR IN PLACE.  HAIL AND WIND
WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.  MODELS STILL INDICATE THAT THE FRONT WILL
LINGER OVER NORTH TEXAS ON SUNDAY...THEREFORE...THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN.  HOWEVER...THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN MCS OVERNIGHT COULD GREATLY
IMPACT THE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS ON SUNDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
MEMORIAL DAY WITH THE COLD FRONT PROGGED IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES AND
NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW REMAINING OVER THE REGION.  THUNDERSTORMS
CHANCES SHOULD DECREASE THE REST OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD.

AFTER A WARM AND HUMID AFTERNOON...CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  TEMPS WILL REACH THE
LOW 90S BY MID WEEK.

FCSTID =   79
DFW   69  82  61  80 /  70  60  30  10
ACT   70  85  62  81 /  40  40  40  20
PRX   65  78  60  74 /  80  60  30  10
DTO   67  82  59  79 /  80  60  30  10
TKI   68  82  61  78 /  80  60  30  10
DAL   69  82  61  80 /  70  60  30  10
TRL   69  82  62  79 /  70  60  30  10
CRS   69  83  61  81 /  50  40  40  20
TPL   70  86  63  82 /  40  40  40  20

.FWD...
TX...NONE.

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-251200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
330 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM COMANCHE...TO
CLEBURNE...AND CANTON. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE FROM LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS...BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING WILL ALSO PRESENT A HAZARD.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH CHANCES WILL DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY BY MONDAY.
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

65/DD