Damaging Winds in Oklahoma, May 24, 2003

MESOSCALE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA
600 AM CDT SAT MAY 24 2003

LARGE MCS BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH CURRENT LINE MOTION TO THE SOUTHEAST AT 30KT.  EXPECT
MAIN CONVECTIVE LINE TO PUSH INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA BETWEEN 800 AND
900 AM CDT.  NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH UPPER JET STREAK
DIVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL LIKELY SUSTAIN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS MCS PUSHES INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON.  LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE /
TRENDS INDICATES THAT INSTABILITIES WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT MARGINAL
WITH CAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG.  COULD STILL SEE ISOLATED SEVERE
ALONG LINE WITH WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND NICKEL SIZE HAIL.  GIVEN
TIMING OF OVERALL SYSTEM...IT APPEARS UNLIKELY THAT ATMOSPHERE CAN
RECOVER / DESTABILIZE SIGNIFICANTLY FOR AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF
SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

FORECAST ID= 12

.TSA...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-251100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
600 AM CDT SAT MAY 24 2003

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK

...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ACROSS EASTERN
   OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS
EARLY THIS MORNING.  THESE STORMS WILL FORM INTO A LARGE
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX...MOVING INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING
AND INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL UP
TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE OVER FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS. IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE THREAT...VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
LIKELY WITH THE THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.  THE
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE
AFTERNOON WITH ONLY A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT.

WARNING PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES CAN BE
FOUND IN THE OUTLOOK SECTION AT: WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA. GIVEN
PROBABILITIES REPRESENT THE POTENTIAL FOR A WARNING TO BE ISSUED AT
YOUR LOCATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
THERE WILL BE CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS...HOWEVER SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER / EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY. EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
PERSONNEL SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST WEATHER CONDITIONS.

ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT...
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA

OKZ054-059-241415-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
822 AM CDT SAT MAY 24 2003

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IN EFFECT FOR OSAGE AND PAWNEE COUNTIES
   UNTIL 915 AM CDT...

AT 822 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 20 MILES NORTHWEST OF GRAINOLA TO 30 MILES WEST
OF APPERSON TO 70 MILES WEST OF PAWNEE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
TO 40 MPH. THE COMMUNITIES OF PAWHUSKA...SHIDLER...HOMINY...AVANT..
BARNSDALL...FORAKER...GRAINOLA...PAWNEE...CLEVELAND AND RALSTON WILL
BE AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS THROUGH 915 AM CDT.