Flood in Delaware, October 29, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
430 AM EST WED OCT 29 2003

AT 400 AM THE WSR-88D AT FORT DIX INDICATED A SWATH OF HALF INCH TO
ONE INCH RAINFALL TOTALS EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER DELMARVA THROUGH
SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND UP INTO NORTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY.  THE
AMOUNTS SEEMS TO LINE UP WELL WITH TOTALS FROM THE PRECIP GAGES IN
THE REGION.  BEING THAT THE HEAVIEST OF THE RAIN IS BUILDING UP INTO
OUR FORECAST AREA RIGHT NOW, WELL LEAVE THE FLOOD WATCH IN PLACE.
SOME LOCATIONS COULD EASILY PICK UP ANOTHER INCH TO AN INCH AND A
HALF OR SO BETWEEN NOW AND MID MORNING.

IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR AS THOUGH THE RAIN WILL SHUT OFF DURING THE
MID TO LATE MORNING, ABOUT 900 TO 1100 AM, AS THE SURFACE LOW PASSES
TO OUR EAST.  THE LOW SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE UP INTO NEW ENGLAND
AROUND NOONTIME OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER.

THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDED THROUGH INDIANA AT 400 AM.
THAT FEATURE WILL PASS OVER OUR FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING.  WELL
KEEP IN THE MENTION OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THIS AFTERNOON OUT
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.  ONCE IT PASSES, THE SKY SHOULD CLEAR RATHER
QUICKLY FOR TONIGHT.

THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO DROP OFF TONIGHT AND WITH THE GROUND BEING
SATURATED THERE SHOULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG AROUND DAYBREAK ON
THURSDAY.

THE ETA AND GFS BOTH DRAW SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST (ACTUALLY OVER THE PACIFIC) AND UP OVER OUR REGION FOR
FRIDAY.  THERE MAY BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CIRRUS SO WELL CALL IT
PARTLY SUNNY.

FAIR AND MILD WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH ON
SUNDAY NIGHT OR DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.  IT DOESNT
APPEAR TO HAVE A GREAT DEAL OF PUSH BEHIND IT SO TIMING IT AT THIS
POINT IS A LITTLE DIFFICULT.

THE ZONE FORECASTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN ISSUED.

.PHI...FLOOD WATCH THIS MORNING FOR SOUTHEASTER PENNSYLVANIA (PA
        ZONES 67>71), PARTS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW JERSEY (NJ
        ZONES 8>10,12,13,15>19), NORTHERN DELAWARE (DE ZONE 1) AND
        EXTREME NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND (MD ZONE 8).
       SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM SANDY HOOK NJ TO FENWICK ISLAND DE
        AND FOR THE LOWER PART OF DELAWARE BAY.

IOVINO

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ054-055-
060>062-067>071-301200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
530 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA, DELAWARE, THE NORTHERN MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE, AND NEW
JERSEY EXCLUDING THE FIVE NORTHEAST COUNTIES.

.DAY ONE...TODAY...

A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THIS MORNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA, EXTREME NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND, NORTHERN DELAWARE,
AND PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW JERSEY.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
ONE TO TWO INCHES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MID MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

IOVINO

DEZ003-004-NJZ012>014-020-022>027-291800-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
455 AM EST WED OCT 29 2003

...MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AT THE SHORE AND
BACK BAYS AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

LOW PRESSURE OFF HAMPTON ROADS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE TO OFF
THE NEW JERSEY COASTLINE SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. THE LOW WILL BRING
RAIN...SOMETIMES HEAVY...AND WILL GENERATE A MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW
UNTIL IT PASSES. THE COMBINATION OF THE RAIN...THE ONSHORE FLOW AND
THE PRESSURE OF THE LOW MAY COMBINE TO PRODUCE MINOR FLOODING AROUND
TIME OF HIGH TIDE.

BE PREPARED TO MOVE YOUR VEHICLE AWAY FROM THE MOST FLOODPRONE AREAS IF
FLOODING DOES OCCUR. WINDS WILL BECOME OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
ENDING ANY THREAT OF MINOR FLOODING.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR FURTHER
UPDATES. ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON OUR WEB SITE AT:
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ER/PHI

MPD